A report by Daniel Kaplan of Sports Business Journal states that the National Football League expects to bring in $14 billion in total league revenue in the 2017-18 season. With that figure in place and future events on the docket, $20 billion NFL revenue by 2020 is not at all out of the realm of possibility.
$20 Billion NFL Revenue by 2020? Totally Possible
The expected uptick for next season is credited to the opening of Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and the Los Angeles Chargers’ recent move, along with the increased value of the NFL’s Thursday Night Football broadcast package.
Those factors have contributed to an increase of six billion dollars in total revenue since 2010. Getting another six billion dollars in revenue over a period of just three seasons represents a challenge for the league, but not an impossibility.
How the NFL Could Boom Even Further
Before the 2020-21 season ends, at least one major event that should represent a dramatic increase for the NFL will have taken place. The Chargers and Los Angeles Rams will open their new shared facility in Inglewood, California. Having a home game every week of the season in North America’s most populous market is sure to up the NFL’s total revenue. That alone won’t be sufficient to reach the $20 billion plateau, however.
Another factor that could work in the NFL’s favor, if they are able to swing it, is more lucrative television deals. While the NFL is locked into its current deals with AT&T/Directv, ABC/ESPN, CBS, Fox and NBC through 2022, those broadcasters renewed their deals in 2011 and 2014 with years left on the contracts in place then and more than doubled what they were paying. It’s the same logic as an NFL team which tries to extend a young player before he hits free agency. The cost of the extension could represent a significant savings over what the cost could be in an open bidding situation. If the NFL is able to get its broadcast partners to extend their contracts, and double their payout, again, that could help the league reach the $20 billion plateau prior to the end of the 2020-21 season.
A final reason that the NFL could cash in soon is that the league’s apparel licensing deal with Nike expires after the 2018-19 season. With Under Armour, who already has a foothold in the NFL with a licensing deal to supply apparel to prospects participating in the NFL Scouting Combine, spending money like crazy to grow its presence, the likelihood that the NFL will get a bigger royalty cut and rights fee from some company is high.
By the time the 2020-21 season ends and the league is starting to look at its figures for the 2021-22 season, the prognostication for total league revenue could hit the $20 billion mark if everything goes right. That rarely happens, and the NFL certainly faces some challenges, but the fact that a path to that figure is easy to put together should be encouraging for the league.
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