AFC East Preview – Buffalo Bills

This time last year, the Bills were a media darling and common favorite to win their first Superbowl. Now, after an embarrassing playoff exit and noisy start to the offseason, they’re a common regression choice. The NFL is funny that way. This Bills season preview will get into if all the talk about regression is warranted.

Draft Analysis: B-

The Bills entered the offseason with a short laundry list of needs, allowing them a luxury choice or two. Dalton Kincaid is both a luxury pick and an interesting weapon in a Josh Allen led offense. He’s not big enough to ever be a decent blocker, however, he gives Buffalo a field-stretching target that suits Allen’s vertical passing skillset.  It was likely a bit of a reach, but Kincaid serves as a clear upgrade over Dawson Knox moving forward.

Buffalo has been trying to figure out how to run the ball for years. O’Cyrus Torrence in the second round adds beef at guard in an effort to improve on that front. More discussion on Buffalo’s rushing woes to follow below. Dorian Williams in the third round is an interesting depth pick at linebacker. He has high-end speed and strength but is a bit undersized for a starting inside linebacker. Overall, it was a decent class for a Bills team that didn’t have too many holes to fill.

Season Outlook: 12-5 (Division Winner)

Quarterback

What will be the biggest factor for getting Buffalo over the top in their championship pursuit? Offensive consistency and it starts with Josh Allen. On his good days, no quarterback (including Mahomes) can reach the heights that Allen can. The problem has been that he and the offense mix in quite a few clunkers with those good days. Some of that could be attributed to Allen’s elbow injury, but it’s been a consistent theme for him in his career beyond what he showed in 2022. Even with no incremental growth, Allen projects to put enough great performances together to compete in a greatly improved division.

Offense

Looking at the rest of the offense, Buffalo has a solid, battle-tested offensive line. If Torrence can push Ryan Bates for the starting job at right guard, it should be an above average unit. Running behind them will be James Cook and Damien Harris who form an explosive and complimentary duo. So, if they’ve got a solid line and solid backs, why can’t Buffalo seemingly ever run the ball? The answer comes down to the scheme the Bills have primarily been employing since Allen took over at quarterback. The Bills have played almost exclusively out of the gun and in very vanilla sets, which does a few different things. The first is that the backs never get a running start to read the defense and set up blockers. The second is that it’s typically easy for the defense to dissect what sorts of runs they need to defend. Continuing to play in formations that Josh Allen is comfortable in is key for the offense, but even varying the looks while in the gun from time to time could help jumpstart the running game.

Elsewhere on offense, Stefon Diggs continues to make headlines with cryptic tweets and general unhappiness. Looking at his days in Minnesota as a use case, his unhappiness didn’t impact his performance negatively on the field. While his years in Buffalo may be numbered, Diggs should continue to star once again this season. Beyond Diggs, the receiving group has several roleplaying types such as Gabe Davis and Trent Sherfield. None of those weapons is a true #2 target, but the variety and volume of targets should continue to suffice.

Defense

What will be the second biggest factor for getting Buffalo over the top? Defensive consistency and that could be as simple as getting everyone back healthy. They’ve got an immense amount of talent on the line of scrimmage with Von Miller and Ed Oliver anchoring a deep unit. Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa are both breakout candidates on the defensive line as well. Throw in the recently signed Leonard Floyd and this unit could be terrifying. Behind them, Matt Milano returns as a freshly minted All-Pro to lead the linebacking corps. Getting Tre’Davious White back could be a huge boost to the secondary, assuming he’s still the same guy. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde also return as veteran safeties to round out a complete defensive unit.

Despite all the noise around Buffalo in the media, this team should again have its eyes on a Superbowl run. Even if they’re the same team from a year ago, they will still have weeks that make the pundits rave about how they are the best team in the league at points this season. Maybe even finding consistency on one side of the ball will be enough to get this talented squad over the hump.

Post Schedule Release Prediction: 12-5 (5 Seed)

This simulation result ended in the same record for the Bills as initially projected. The difference in seeding came down to a tiebreaker with the Aaron Rodgers led Jets. Week 1’s Monday night matchup with Buffalo visiting the Meadowlands could go a long way in getting the battle for division supremacy rolling. Regardless of the results of this simulation, Buffalo should be favored to again contend in a loaded AFC.

**The post-schedule release prediction is based on a single simulation, with each game on the schedule picked only once. Difficult schedules to begin a season tend to lead to higher deviations between the season outlook and simulation results. Take a hypothetical team projected to have a season outlook of 8-9. If that team projects to start 1-5 due to a brutal opening stretch, it can derail their whole season. Coaches on losing teams tend to lose locker rooms faster and players on those teams tend to lose motivation. Teams that play an underachieving team later in a season, would likewise get a boost in their win rate.

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