No matter what sport, the way a team finishes the regular season is typically indicative of their post-season success. A team on a winning streak is much more likely to continue that winning into the playoffs of their respective league (2004 Boston Red Sox, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals, 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2010 Green Bay Packers). That’s just the past decade and two sports. The list could go on and on.
Pittsburgh Steelers Divisional Round Keys to Victory
The Pittsburgh Steelers fit this description. Winners of eight straight games, the streaking Steelers take their talents to frosty Kansas City on Sunday night for a chance to play in the AFC Championship. Here are the Steelers Divisional round keys to victory.
Le’Veon Bell & the Kansas City Rush Defense
I know, big surprise right? Make no mistake, Le’Veon Bell SHOULD win the MVP this year. Emphasis on should. Bell has been nothing short of spectacular over the Steelers winning streak, and has averaged an NFL-leading 22 rushes per game, while finishing second in the league in rushing yards with 1,268 (while missing three games to start the year, and not seeing any action in a Week 17 contest).
The workhorse back has also averaged 121 yards per game on the road in 2016, a fact made even more impressive when you consider he’s the focal point of every defense he faces. Bell should see somewhere in the neighborhood of 26-30 touches if the Steelers expect to win.
On paper, Bell vs. the Kansas City rush defense looks like a mismatch, but, as anyone who’s ever played a sport knows, the game isn’t played on paper. Kansas City finished the regular season ranked 26th in rush defense (121 yards per game), giving up 4.4 yards per rush, and 4.8 yards per rush at home. Even more so, the Chiefs give up an average 130 yards per game at home. The Chiefs saving grace this year on defense has been turnovers. On average, they created 2.1 takeaways per game in 2016, while averaging almost three takeaways per game at home (2.6 takeaways).
Create Havoc on Defense
In order for the Steelers to come away victorious, the defense will need to create some havoc on the Chiefs offense. This is easier said than done, unfortunately. The Chiefs led the NFL in turnover margin over the course of the 2016 season (+16 margin). Quarterback Alex Smith has been ridiculed in the past for not forcing the ball down field, but has been thriving under head coach Andy Reid’s tutelage the past few seasons. Smith finished with only eight interceptions this year, a key component in the Chiefs strategy of not beating themselves with turnovers.
Continuing that trend, the Chiefs have only fumbled the ball 18 times in 16 games (losing nine of those fumbles). For comparisons sake, the San Francisco 49ers led the NFL with 29 fumbles, and the Steelers ranked 28th with 16 fumbles.
Linebacker Ryan Shazier has an interception in three straight games, and the linebacker corps has been playing exceptionally well over the past eight games. That trend will need to continue as the Chiefs quick passing scheme will put the Steeler linebackers into pass coverage. The middle linebacker duo of Shazier and Lawrence Timmons are very capable of defending the pass, as they have five interceptions combined (Shazier has three, Timmons has two).
Bud Dupree and James Harrison will need to continue their pass rush and make Smith throw the ball earlier than anticipated. The Steelers had five sacks, one interception and three forced fumbles last week vs. the Miami Dolphins. A similar effort will be needed in Kansas City if the Steelers want to earn a victory.
Strictly by the Numbers
- Andy Reid is 16-2 after a bye week, and 3-0 after earning a bye in the playoffs. Kansas City is 6-2 at home in 2016,with their losses coming to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-0 in primetime games this year (Redskins, Chiefs, Colts, Ravens). Ben Roethlisberger has thrown nine touchdowns and eight interceptions on the road this season. The Kansas City Chiefs had an NFL leading 18 interceptions in the regular season.
- Roethlisberger is seventh all time in playoff victories, and owns a 12-6 postseason record. Roethlisberger has thrown 22 touchdowns to 19 interceptions in his postseason career, while averaging 238 yards per contest.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Chiefs 24
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