The Buffalo Bills (9-2) entered their bye week on the highest of notes. They handed the rival Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) their first loss of the 2024 season and moved within a half-game of the coveted top seed in the AFC standings.
While MVP candidate Josh Allen and Co. earned a well-deserved and much-needed week off, a lot of challenges remain as they attempt to hunt down the franchise’s first Super Bowl title. How they handle the remaining regular-season hurdles will help determine their true playoff upside.
One thing’s for sure: what started as a possible transition year for the Bills has become championship or bust. Beating the two-time defending champion Chiefs is a significant step in the right direction, but there’s a lot of work left to do after the bye.
Bills Areas of Concern Ahead of Week 12 Bye
Injuries
The Bills haven’t played a single game anywhere near full strength this season. All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano suffered a bicep injury in training camp and has yet to make his 2024 season debut. Milano’s 21-day practice window recently opened, so it’ll be interesting to see his status coming out of the bye.
Buffalo’s injury list has continued to grow with each passing week, too. Allen suffered an injury to his non-throwing hand in a Week 1 win over the Arizona Cardinals. The 28-year-old quarterback hasn’t missed any games, but he’s been listed on the injury report for the past 10 weeks.
On Sunday, Allen appeared to injure his wrist on a touchdown pass to Curtis Samuel. He stayed in the game and ultimately scored a game-clinching 26-yard TD run late in the fourth quarter.
Allen is the most important player in the NFL. Yes, he’s more crucial to his team’s success than the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, Baltimore Ravens‘ Lamar Jackson, or any of the league’s other top-tier quarterbacks. If he misses any time, the Bills go from Super Bowl hopeful to a complete non-threat.
The health concerns go beyond Allen and Milano, though. Buffalo’s injury report ahead of the Kansas City game featured 17 players. That’s 32.1 percent of the 53-man roster. Key absences from the win included Milano (still on injured reserve), wide receiver Keon Coleman, tight end Dalton Kincaid and right tackle Spencer Brown.
Beating the Chiefs while shorthanded is impressive, especially given K.C.’s extended unbeaten run. It shows how dangerous the Bills will be if they ever get to full strength. It seems like every return is met with a new injury, however.
Perhaps a week off can help the Bills trim the injury report with the hope of a healthier stretch run.
Upcoming Schedule / Playoff Seeding
The Chiefs game started one of the most difficult stretches any NFL team faces this year. After the bye, the Bills host the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City’s counterpart in last season’s Super Bowl, before road games against the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions.
Meanwhile, K.C. has the league’s third-easiest remaining schedule, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. That’s why Mahomes’ squad is still the favorite to earn the AFC’s playoff bye despite Buffalo’s head-to-head win on Sunday.
Finding a way to wrestle the No. 1 spot away from the Chiefs would be massive. Not only for the extra week off but also because the conference’s postseason field will be so strong from top to bottom, especially if the Cincinnati Bengals storm back to claim the No. 7 seed.
Then there’s also home-field advantage. The Bills are 5-0 at Highmark Stadium this season and 19-3 in Orchard Park dating back to 2022. They have also worked hard to build a more balanced offense capable of thriving in the Western New York winter.
The bottom line is quite straightforward. If Buffalo can overcome the difficult schedule to earn the No. 1 seed, it may enter the playoffs as the Super Bowl favorite. If not, navigating through the AFC may prove too tough, especially if the injury woes continue.
Von Miller’s Impact
Miller looked ready to bounce back from a miserable 2023 early in the campaign. The future Hall of Famer recorded three sacks in four appearances before receiving a four-game suspension for a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy.
The 35-year-old edge-rusher hasn’t been nearly as effective since his return. He’s recorded just two quarterback hits and one sack in the past three contests. The eye test isn’t any more favorable as he’s looked extremely sluggish off the line.
It’s a problem because Miller doesn’t have any other responsibilities. He comes off the field in obvious running situations—he played just 38 percent of the defensive snaps Sunday—and he never drops into coverage. He has a singular job: take down the opposing quarterback.
The Bills are tied for 12th in sacks this season with 27. So much of playoff success is getting pressure on the QB and keeping pass-rushers away from your own. That’s why Buffalo handed Miller a six-year, $120 million contract in 2022. He was their solution.
Everyone will forget Miller’s recent struggles if he comes up big in the postseason. He’s got six games left to find peak form, whatever that may be at this stage of his decorated career.
Second-Half Timeout Usage
This point is less pressing than the first three, but it’s still worth talking about. Wasting critical second-half timeouts has been a hallmark of the Sean McDermott tenure in Buffalo.
The problem manifests itself in two forms. First, McDermott is a defensive-minded coach and frequently calls a timeout when the defense is on the field. That’s rarely a good idea, barring having too few players on the field.
Meanwhile, the second type of mistake is a shared responsibility with Allen. Too often the Bills burn a timeout on offense to save five yards because the play clock is running low. It happened on a 2nd-and-10 play in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs. It could have haunted Buffalo if not for the quarterback’s heroic late touchdown.
A second-half timeout is far, far more valuable than a handful of yards. The only exception would be a 4th-and-1 or 4th-and-inches scenario, and even in that situation, it’s only worth using a timeout if you’re going to go for it.
The Bills aren’t the only team in the NFL that makes this mistake, of course. It’s a common error. But it’s one thing the coaching staff must clean up as part of the Super Bowl pursuit.
Main Photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
