The race for the first overall selection heats up in Nashville on Sunday between two moribund organizations seeking redemption. Both franchises have many dark clouds hovering over their respective teams right now, as they have combined for three wins in 2024. Which team can give their discontented fan base some much-needed optimism with a win? The Patriots shocked the world last week with an upset victory over a similarly doomed Jets team. Tennessee continued their losing ways with a dispiriting and backbreaking loss to the powerhouse Lions. The Music City will host the seemingly everlasting pessimistic Patriots and Titans. Whoever loses this tightly wound contest will have the upper hand in the race for a top-three selection.
Pessimistic Patriots and Titans Meet in the Music City in Week 9
Patriots Offense vs. Titans Defense
All eyes will be on the health of Drake Maye, the present and future quarterback, who suffered a concussion last week against the Jets. If he cannot go, the offense will suffer a fortune downgrade under the auspices of veteran backup Jacoby Brissett. No matter who the passer is, can the Patriots offense get it going against a top-ranked defense?
OL vs. DL Matchups to Watch
Unbelievably, the Patriots are remarkably worse off than the woeful Titans offensive line. The left and right tackles have been an unmitigated disaster due to injury and incompetence. Vederian Lowe, when healthy, has been their best left tackle option. His replacement, Demontrey Jacobs, has earned an inferior overall grade of 37.6 by PFF. Versatile lineman Michael Owenu has bounced back and forth between right guard and right tackle due to injuries to right guard Layden Robinson. Owenu is the highest-graded lineman the Patriots have, with an overall score of 67.9. Veteran Michael Jordan is a middling starter at left guard. The left tackle spot was further entrenched in dire straits as Chukwuma Okorafor left the team during the season.
Matching up against the Patriots is a stout defensive line anchored by Jeffery Simmons and standout rookie T’Vondre Sweat (injured). Arden Key is coming off a good performance against Detroit, logging three sacks in the past two games. He’s been subject to a lot of trade speculation due to his inconsistent form. Harold Landry has been a steady veteran on the other side and is also rolling in the trade rumors as the deadline nears. The Titans’ top-ranked defense should feast against a similarly poor offensive line.
Skill-on-Skill Matchups to Watch
Despite the Lions’ shellacking, the defense held up mostly despite repeatedly being given short fields to defend. They cracked under the constant barrage in the second half. Tennessee’s youthful secondary should match up well against the Patriots’ lack of competent receiving weapons. After a recent horrendous performance, one Patriots receiver has already made a misguided youthful folly. The receiver trade market is already firing on all cylinders with big names being moved, but there could be another one in Kendrick Bourne. Tight ends are often the leading receiver for a team starting a young quarterback. Hunter Henry is such a case, with 358 yards and one touchdown on 32 receptions.
However, the Titans’ secondary is severely injured, with L’Jarius Sneed missing two consecutive games and Chidobe Awuzie on IR. Rookie Jarvis Brownlee, Jr, Roger McCreary, and Darrell Baker, Jr have been the starters. Compounding matters is safety Amani Hooker was injured last week and has missed two practices this week. He’s likely out for the contest. It will be tough to be optimistic with such a wounded secondary, even against the Patriots’ weakened skill players. Adding to the pessimism, backup Tre Avery is injured as well. Jerome Baker joins as a potential starter after the trade that sent Ernest Jones to Seattle in return.
Titans Offense vs. Patriots Offense
Adding to the Tennessee offense’s conundrum is that Will Levis could be in line to play, if not outright start, over backup Mason Rudolph. DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the reigning champions, and Calvin Ridley was force-fed the ball against the Lions to great success. Nick Westbrook-Ihkine has stepped into a more prominent role after Treylon Burks’ injury landed him on IR. Tony Pollard has carried the run game, dominating the carries even when Tyjae Spears was healthy. Tennessee is down to two healthy running backs and a third on the practice squad. Injuries to right guard Dillon Radunz and receiver Tyler Boyd are even further dampening their spirits.
Nearly all of the Patriots’ key defenders are on the injury report with limited designations, so it will be difficult for the Titans to game plan. They are also without linebacker Josh Uche, who was joint second on the team with two sacks before being traded to the Chiefs this week. If healthy, the Patriots’ secondary will pose a formidable challenge for the hapless Tennessee receiving corps. Led by precocious youngster Christian Gonzalez, who’s trying to find his footing as CB1. Davin Godchaux and Keion White are the impact players to watch up front against an open turnstile that is the Titans’ right tackle position. The top three tacklers for the Pats are its linebackers, so that’s a good thing for Jeord Mayo’s stop unit.
Odds and Ends
The Patriots lead the all-time series by a margin of 26-18-1 over the Titans. These two teams have played 11 times since 2002, with New England winning eight of the 11, including seven consecutive times. They meet pretty frequently with matchups every three seasons or so. In the past five contests, the Patriots have outscored the Titans by an average of 25.4 to 19.4. Tennessee was the team that ended the Belichick-Brady partnership with a walk-off pick-six in the wild-card round during the 2020 playoffs.
Uniforms
🚨BRITCHES REPORT 🚨: The @Titans will be decked out in navy blue jerseys, light blue britches, and navy blue socks in Sunday’s game vs the @Patriots. 👖 pic.twitter.com/N8ALT5zP6c
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) October 30, 2024
Weather Report
Sunday’s weather is expected to be ideal for football. The temperature is projected at 80 degrees, which is higher than average. There is a 20% chance of rain, but it should stay dry and cloudy at kickoff. Winds are predicted to blow south-by-southeast at 13 miles per hour. The Titans have a slight weather advantage, as the Patriots could be unfamiliar with temperatures higher than expected for the region.
Referee Referendum
Kemp is a part of four referees in their seventh season as the head honcho. He’s been in the league for 11 seasons total. His crew is younger than most, with only two officials with more than 15 years of experience. Six of the nine members have less than five seasons of league experience. Kemp’s staff also has a former player, with Mike Morton serving as the umpire. Morton played collegiately at North Carolina before transitioning to becoming an official. The chemistry between the crew members is good, with four of six on-field roles being holdovers from 2023. His staff has a trailblazing pioneer as Lo van Pham is the first Asian-American official in league history.
Through eight weeks, Kemp’s crew has called the fifth-most penalties in the league, 125, of which 106 were accepted. He averages over 15 accepted penalties a game, so the ref show could greatly influence Nashville on Sunday. He has officiated Tennessee games only three times in his seven seasons. Both teams’ offensive lines must be wary of his crew, as they have called 28 holding penalties. The Patriots, in particular, have to be cautious as away teams are called for it more than the home teams. Kemp’s crew favors the home team slightly, with an average of 6.43 flags over the away team’s 8.71 flags.
Betting
According to BetMGM, Tennessee is favored by 3.5 points with a money line of -105. The over/under total has been set at 38 points. New England is 2-5 ATS with one push, while Tennessee is 1-6 ATS. The Titans have gone 3-2 in over/under, and the Patriots are 5-3 in that regard. It can be concluded that both teams are favored to go over the total most of the time. Where it gets dicey is the spread, with both teams sporting just three wins in 11 combined tries.
Recommendation: Bet the over/under but not the spread
Main Photo: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
