Many teams don’t like to call certain showdowns a “must-win,” but the Buffalo Bills game on Monday night against the New York Jets falls into that category. After a 3-0 start, Buffalo has dropped its last two contests. The blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens was more detrimental than a three-point loss to the Houston Texans in Week 5.
Quarterback Josh Allen played his worst game of the year, completing 9-of-30 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown. While the Bills were in the game until the last minute, the perennial MVP candidate looked overmatched against a vicious and aggressive Texans defense.
Despite allowing over 300 yards to C.J. Stroud, the Bills defense picked off the young signal-caller and kept the game close through four quarters.
The loss to Houston put Buffalo’s losing streak to two. If Sean McDermott can’t get his squad fired up against the division-rival Jets, it could increase to a three-game streak. That essentially cancels the Bills fast 3-0 start.
Why the Bills game Against the Jets is Already a Must-Win
Forget the Past
It may feel too early to call any game a “must-win” only six weeks into the season, but Buffalo needs to salvage its year before things completely fall off the rails. Houston, Baltimore, and the Kansas City Chiefs have established themselves as the top three teams in the AFC.
If the playoffs started today, the Bills would host the Pittsburgh Steelers as the fourth seed. Losing to the Jets would put Buffalo two games behind New York. Losing a game counts twice if it occurs to a divisional rival. It’s true that, like any team, the Bills are dealing with injuries and adapting to the changes that entails.
In years past, however, Buffalo was able to overcome adversity and win the division. With the way things have played out so far this season, beating the Jets could be the turning point for a team many thought could possibly represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
The Jets are in Flux
While the Bills scramble to fix what’s gone wrong over the last two weeks, the Jets tried to start anew five weeks into the season. By firing head coach Robert Saleh, ownership felt it was still early enough to right the ship.
The entire situation came off uglier than most NFL divorces due to how the team accommodated Aaron Rodgers after acquiring him via trade before the 2023 season. It signed Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator as well as wide receiver Allen Lazard.
Not only did New York fire Saleh, but it also stripped play-calling duties from Hackett, a friend of Rodgers. New head coach Jeff Ulbrich gave play-calling duties to Todd Downing, who had previously been the team’s passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach since 2023.
Will that change automatically fix what’s been wrong with the Jets offense? It remains to be seen. But with New York installing a new play-caller, Buffalo needs to take advantage and make his first game at the helm a mess. Blitz Rodgers to test the offensive line and disrupt potential screen passes. Mix coverages from play to play. The Bills must try to confuse Downing and make him question his decisions.
Take Advantage While AFC East is in Shambles
The Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots in Week 5 in one of the uglier games of the last decade. Tyler Huntley is an upgrade over Skylar Thompson, but he looked overmatched against New England’s defense. The Patriots are going with Drake Maye against the Texans.
Houston should be able to contain the North Carolina product. Maye could, however, show flashes of what made him the third overall pick in the 2024 Draft. If that’s the case, the two late-season games against the Patriots become bigger challenges instead of the easy wins they were before the season began.
Timing is everything, and the Bills currently have the perfect opportunity to get back on track against the Jets. Beating New York will not only reinstall some faith in the team as a threat but will also keep Buffalo atop the AFC East.
Miami battled Buffalo for the AFC East crown until the final week of 2023, but things were completely different last year. With the current landscape of the AFC East and AFC as a whole, the Bills game against the Jets in Week 6 is a must-win.
Main Image: Thomas Shea – USA Today Sports
