Curtis Samuel became a popular fantasy football sleeper after joining the Buffalo Bills in free agency. The veteran wide receiver’s connection with quarterback Josh Allen has been slow to develop, but he needs a standout performance in Week 3 to remain roster-worthy.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville Jaguars signal-caller Trevor Lawrence was frequently targeted by managers who waited to select a QB on draft day. The 2021 first-overall pick has tallied just two total touchdowns in the Jags’ first two games and is losing his status as a reliable fantasy starter.
The outlook for both Samuel and Lawrence will become more clear after the Bills and Jaguars take part in a key AFC clash on Monday Night Football. Kickoff at Highmark Stadium is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Jaguars-Bills Key Fantasy Football Storylines (Week 3)
Bills: Curtis Samuel Desperately Needs Breakout Game
The Buffalo offense grew stagnant last year. Most of the snaps saw Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the outside with either Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid in the slot. The play-calling was direct and featured little variation to keep defenses honest.
Following the departures of Diggs (Houston Texans) and Davis (Jaguars), the arrival of Samuel generated excitement. His dual-threat playmaking upside combined with the ability to move him around the formation to generate matchup advantages appeared to represent a fresh direction for the Bills.
Instead, the 28-year-old Ohio State product has struggled to find consistent involvement. He’s been targeted only four times in two games, making three catches for 18 yards, and he’s yet to receive a carry as part of the rushing attack. The lack of production has pushed him to the fantasy fringe.
If Samuel is going to turn things around, the Jags seem like a perfect opponent to make it happen. Jacksonville leads the league in man coverage this season. The counter to that is a lot of pre-snap motion and the occasional trick play.
The #Bills get Curtis Samuel in motion. Allen finds Shakir in the middle on a seam route. Poyer gets flagged for the hit. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/5duwnQ7IPo
— BillsOutlet (@_billsoutlet) September 18, 2024
Samuel only earned a 27 percent snap share in each of the Bills’ first two games. The New York City native should far exceed that number Monday night given the matchup. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play over 50 percent of the snaps against Jacksonville.
Ultimately, the only thing that matters in the fantasy realm is the final stat line. If he doesn’t get at least a handful of touches or post double-digit points, it’s probably time to send him to the waiver wire.
Jaguars: Is Trevor Lawrence Strictly a Fantasy Backup?
Lawrence looked like the next superstar fantasy quarterback in 2022. He racked up 30 total touchdowns en route to finishing as the QB7 in his second NFL season.
The former Clemson standout dropped to the QB12 in 2023, though. Now he’s off to a sluggish start to the new campaign despite a strong supporting cast. It’s a group that includes impressive talent at wide receiver (Davis, Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk), running back (Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby), and tight end (Evan Engram), though Engram will miss Monday’s game with a hamstring injury.
So why hasn’t Lawrence blossomed into a consistent top-five quarterback, both in the real world and the fantasy one? An easy answer doesn’t exist, but the criticism will continue to grow if he doesn’t turn a corner soon.
Trevor Lawrence last 7 starts
0-7
1,652 Pass Yards
10 Pass TD
7 NT
81.9 Pass Rating pic.twitter.com/mQIQCymMzm— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 16, 2024
For his part, the 2022 Pro Bowler says he’s ignoring the outside noise.
“I don’t really care what people think about me,” Lawrence told ESPN’s Michael DiRocco ahead of Monday’s game. “I play for the people around me. … But I also think things are earned in this league, and I would love to get to the point in my career where there’s no doubt about the player I am.”
Lawrence and the Jaguars’ aerial attack face another tough test under the prime-time lights. The Bills are allowing just 179 yards per game through the air. They also have more interceptions (three) than passing touchdowns allowed (two) during their 2-0 start. The raucous Buffalo crowd adds to the challenge.
It’s not a question of talent, but T-Law is entering the show-me stage. He needs to string together some strong outings or it’ll be time to seek out a new fantasy quarterback.
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