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Bills vs. Dolphins: X-Factors, Key Matchup, Week 2 Score Prediction

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are expected to battle for the AFC East title all year. The Week 2 winner will gain an early advantage.
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The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins both overcame 14-point first-half deficits to pick up Week 1 victories on Sunday. Now the AFC East rivals are set for a Thursday Night Football showdown with the early division lead on the line.

Buffalo once again rode the shoulders of quarterback Josh Allen to a 34-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals. The perennial NFL MVP candidate tallied four total touchdowns in the team’s home opener, though an injury to his non-throwing hand is a question mark on the short week.

Meanwhile, Miami held the Jacksonville Jaguars to just 267 yards of total offense. The strong defensive performance kept the Phins in the game until their high-powered attack came alive after halftime en route to a 20-17 triumph.

Kickoff for Thursday’s game is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

Bills-Dolphins Week 2 Breakdown, Analysis

X-Factors

Bills: RG O’Cyrus Torrence

Torrence, a 2023 second-round pick, endured his worst game as a professional on Sunday. He recorded three penalties for 30 yards (face mask, holding, and a false start), including one that nullified an Allen touchdown run. The Bills ultimately settled for a field goal on that drive.

It wasn’t just the penalties, either. He seemed to struggle to identify his blocking assignments, especially when the Cardinals juggled their defensive front seven. Allen saved him from a particularly brutal missed block that should have been a sack:

His low Pro Football Focus grade (35.1) further cements his lackluster performance.

Now Torrence goes up against a Dolphins interior coming off a standout effort against the Jags. Calais Campbell tallied three tackles, including two for a loss, and a sack, while Jaelan Phillips also took down Trevor Lawrence once.

After watching Sunday’s film, Miami is almost guaranteed to mix up its looks defensively to see if it can trick Torrence into the same type of mistakes he made against Arizona. Teams like to disguise looks against Allen anyway.

Torrence went through an up-and-down rookie campaign last year. The Bills stuck with him in hope of seeing significant second-year improvement. If those signs of progress don’t come in the next handful of weeks, the coaching staff might make a change at right guard.

Dolphins: WR Tyreek Hill

Yes, picking Hill as Miami’s X-factor is generic, but it’s also the reality. His 80-yard touchdown catch from Tua Tagovailoa late in the third quarter against Jacksonville completely changed the game. It was a slog for the Dolphins offensively until that moment.

The Bills feature one of the NFL’s best cornerback groups in Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Taron Johnson. Neither Douglas nor Benford feature the high-end speed to handle Hill in man coverage, however, and Johnson is set to miss the game with a forearm injury.

In turn, Buffalo will be forced to play a lot of zone coverage on Thursday. That’s a problem. Hill was the top wide receiver against zone defenses in 2023, per PFF. Meanwhile, the Cardinals carved up the Bills zone with ease in the first half of Week 1.

Add in the fact the Bills’ new safety tandem of Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin failed to impress against Arizona, and it’s just a nightmare matchup across the board. Head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will need to work some magic to slow down Hill.

The most likely outcome is another monster outing from the eight-time Pro Bowl wideout, though.

Key Matchup

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid vs. Dolphins LB Jordyn Brooks

While there was some thought Kincaid could emerge as the Bills’ new No. 1 target, it didn’t materialize in Week 1. He finished with just one catch for 11 yards on two targets. Part of that was game script—Allen attempted just 23 passes—but it’s still a concern.

On the flip side, Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland shared some more promising playing-time numbers:

The bottom line remains the same: Buffalo needs Kincaid to become a major factor in the aerial attack if the Bills offense is going to reach its full potential. The talent is there but it eventually must translate into on-field results.

He’s going to see a lot of Brooks in Week 2. The Dolphins linebacker is coming off an impressive showing against Jacksonville. He helped hold Jags tight end Evan Engram, who racked up 114 receptions last year, to just one catch on four targets.

Brooks was an underrated addition by Miami in the offseason. He signed a three-year, $26.25 million contract in March after four years with the Seattle Seahawks. He averaged an eye-popping 152 tackles across his final three seasons in Seattle, and the Texas Tech product posted a career-high 4.5 sacks last year.

All told, the winner of the Kincaid vs. Brooks battle in the middle of the field will play a crucial role in which the AFC East squad picks up the key victory.

Final Score Prediction: 38-24 Dolphins

A lot of elements are pointing toward a sizable Dolphins win on Thursday night. Here’s just a sample of things working against the Bills:

  • Traveling to face a division rival on a short week; Dolphins were also home in Week 1
  • Allen potentially limited in the run game because of his hand injury
  • Bills defense remains significantly banged up, can’t match Miami’s speed
  • Buffalo offensive line coming off a bad performance
  • Doesn’t appear weather will be a game-changing factor

The health of running backs De’Von Achane (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (chest) is the only notable concern for Miami. Jeff Wilson Jr. and rookie Jaylen Wright are more than capable replacements if that duo misses the game, though.

On paper, it just doesn’t appear the Bills will have a consistent answer to slow down the Dolphins’ fast-paced offense. And Buffalo may have a hard time keeping up without Allen at full strength.

For the Bills, this was always going to become a season more about peaking at the right time rather than dominating from start to finish. The offseason roster overhaul combined with key injuries already beginning to mount is going to make life difficult at times.

Thursday night looks like one of those times. Buffalo may keep it close for a bit, but look for Miami to pull away in the second half to reach 2-0.

Main Image: Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

Tim Daniels

Tim Daniels

Tim Daniels is a lifelong sports fan who spent much of his youth playing soccer. He transitioned to writing in college and hasn't looked back. He spent 11 years on Bleacher Report's Breaking News Team and helped Topps launch its Ripped collecting website.

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