The Texans traded for Joe Mixon in the offseason to bolster their run game, and fantasy owners should be more excited than ever to draft him. He’s coming off of a 1,000-yard season in Cincinnati and just 28 years old. What should we expect from Mixon in Houston?
2024 Fantasy Football Profile: Joe Mixon
2023 in Review
Mixon finished as the RB6 in standard scoring behind Derrick Henry last year and finished as the RB6 in PPR behind Raheem Mostert. He averaged 12.6 points per game in standard leagues and 15.7 points per game in PPR, numbers that made him one of the league’s most consistent.
He posted 50+ rushing yards in 10/16 fantasy games last year for the Bengals while scoring rushing touchdowns in seven of them. There’s a reason why Mixon has totaled over 1,000 yards four times in his first seven seasons. He’s found ways to make the most of opportunities even when the Bengals offensive line was subpar.
What a handoff & burst. Touchdown Joe Mixon. #drills #Texans #trainingcamp pic.twitter.com/4GdZ4ZIsNr
— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) August 21, 2024
Given his performances in Cincinnati, it was quite a surprise to see the Bengals move on from Mixon. It’s clear that it wasn’t Mixon who wanted a fresh start, but the former Sooner now gets a chance in one of the league’s most dynamic offenses.
2024 Projection
Going into the Houston offense with an elite quarterback in C.J. Stroud and playmakers like Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, it will allow Mixon to maximize his opportunities. Opposing defenses are going to focus on stopping the pass raid and allow Mixon plenty of space. Don’t expect teams to stack the box against Houston much since they’ll be wanting as many defensive backs as possible.
With as dynamic as the Texans unit is expected to be in 2024, it’s almost a guarantee that Mixon will surpass 1,000 yards once again. Now that the NFL is a 17-game schedule, he only needs approximately 60 yards per game to reach that mark. For context, Mixon accumulated 60+ yards nine times in 2023. It’s a hurdle he has no problems getting passed on any given day.
Joe Mixon Fantasy Football ADP
FantasyPros lists Mixon’s ADP at 47 with him going as early as 33 and as late as 69. He’s the RB15 behind players such as De’Von Achane and James Cook. That spot sees him going late in the fourth round in 12-team leagues or late in the fifth round for 10-team leagues. Mixon is as steady as it comes as an RB2 who should provide great value.
The Top RBs to Target in Each Round Based on xEP Projections and Variance/Progression Analysis:
Round 1: Breece Hall
Round 2: Derrick Henry
Round 3: James Cook
Round 4: Joe Mixon
Round 5: Aaron Jones
Round 6: Rhamondre Stevenson
Round 7: Javonte Williams pic.twitter.com/zrniy1JgZV— xEP Network | Projections & Analytics (@xEP_Network) August 20, 2024
Those taking Mixon at 33 are either in leagues that invest early in running backs or someone who went wide receiver in the first two rounds and now needs a notable name at running back. However, those getting him at 69 are getting great value for a guy who is supposed to go two full rounds earlier.
Mixon’s days as an RB1 are probably over, but his value as an RB2 is still there. He’s a guy who will consistently score 9-12 points each week, possibly even more if he finds the endzone. Mixon is towards the top of the list for RB2 choices since those behind him are nothing but depth.
Main Photo Courtesy of Sam Greene – USA Today Sports
