After two disappointing seasons to begin his career, Garrett Wilson once again goes into the season with big hopes for the New York Jets. Wilson finished as the WR26 last season after being drafted as the WR5 and has a similar ADP this year. Can he finally live up to the hype in 2024? Here is the 2024 Garrett Wilson Fantasy Football Preview.
2024 Fantasy Football Profile: Garrett Wilson
2023 in Review
Wilson had 168 targets in 2023 but only caught 95 of them after having just 83 catches on 147 targets in 2022 during his offensive rookie of the year season. He had one of the highest target totals last season but could not capitalize on them in terms of fantasy points: 96th percentile in targets but 69th percentile in PPR points (there were 81 qualified WRs; according to Football Reference, a WR needs 1.875 receptions per game, or 32 on the season to qualify).
Garrett Wilson had 168 targets in 2023, but only caught 95
In 2 seasons, Wilson has a total of 7 TDs
If Rodgers can stay on the field, Wilson is going to have a break-out year as the Jets offense will score more
This is the season that Wilson finally breaks out into a top-10 WR pic.twitter.com/clkzC6SgSB— Austin Ambler (@austin_ambler) May 9, 2024
In two seasons, Wilson has back-to-back 1000+ receiving yards in each but has only caught a total of seven touchdown passes, including just three in 2023. Here are some players who had more touchdowns than Wilson: Nelson Agholor had four on 35 receptions, Kendrick Bourne had four on 37 receptions, Dontayvion Wicks had four on 39 receptions, and DJ Chark had five on 35 receptions. Wilson had three on 95 receptions. Positive touchdown regression is due to happen.
Another concern is that he was in the 20th percentile in yards per catch at just 11.0 last year. The poor QB play leads to a lot of short screen passes to get Wilson the ball in space. The big play ability was not there as Zach Wilson and the other QBs struggled to throw the ball down the field due to a bad offensive line and just being bad themselves.
He has played with awful quarterbacks during his young career but has still put up manageable numbers, but fantasy owners have still been waiting for the big breakout year.
2024 Projection
For the 2nd straight year in a row, the Jets go into Week 1 Monday Night Football with Aaron Rodgers as the QB. We all know how that ended in 2023. The Jets upgraded their offensive line in the offseason and will do everything they can to keep Rodgers on the field. This offense can only go as far as Rodgers can take them. Without Rodgers, the backup is Tyrod Taylor. If there is another injury, he should be better than the Jets’ QBs last year, but the Jets are praying on Rodgers. If he can stay healthy, the Jets’ offense will score more and be much better. The Jets offense is going to be run first, led by Breece Hall, as they will try to do everything they can to let Rodgers run the offense while keeping him safe, and that means running the football. However, a better offense means more scoring opportunities for the Jets and Wilson.
The Jets do not have a deep wide receiver room once again. They signed Mike Williams who always has injury concerns and is coming off a torn ACL. The Jets drafted Malachi Corley, and Rodgers’ trusty target Allen Lazard is still there, too. The tight ends consist of Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert, neither of which is any threat. Wilson is by far the best pass catcher on the team leading to a heavy dose of targets. For the first time in his career, these targets will be catchable.
Garrett Wilson Fantasy Football ADP
According to FantasyPros ADP in Full PPR, Wilson is the WR8 off the board in fantasy drafts. Right ahead of him are A.J. Brown and Puka Nacua. Right below him are Marvin Harrison Jr. and Davante Adams. Wilson can easily be better Nacua this year and should be much better than Harrison and Adams. Wilson is a solid pick at the end of the 1st round or early in the 2nd round.
The problem for Garrett Wilson has been poor quarterbacking play, leading to a lack of touchdowns and deep plays. Aaron Rodgers will fix both of those issues if he can stay on the field for the Jets. The expectations are sky high for Wilson and the Jets entering 2024, and this should be the season that he finally breaks out into a top-10 fantasy WR that the fantasy community has been waiting for.
Main Image: Vincent Carchietta – USA Today Sports
