One of the most critical roles in the NFL isn’t on the field but in the front office. The General Manager holds the power to shape the franchise’s direction, building a solid foundation for the team and its fans. Fortunately for the Chicago Bears, they now have a GM who is not only intelligent but also a proactive learner with a keen eye for the future. In a recent study by Steven Patton, Bears GM Ryan Poles ranked second among all active GMs in net value gained through trades since 2020.
The best and worst active GMs in terms of Net Value Gained through trades since 2020:
1. Chris Ballard
2. Ryan Poles
3. Chris Grier
4. John Schneider
5. Jason Licht
…
23. John Lynch
24. Monti Ossenfort
25. Howie Roseman
26. Les Snead
27. Mickey Loomis pic.twitter.com/xjJBJgHlWe— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) August 9, 2024
Stunning Metric Ranks Bears’ Ryan Poles Among Top Active GMs
Factors in Determining Net Value Gained Through Trades
First, it’s important to understand a rule of thumb. Trading for premium positions (QB, WR, OT, ED, & IDL) is often the right path to go down. While every NFL team has its strengths and weaknesses, securing an elite player in a premium position generally leads to results. Whether through the draft or acquiring a player, a GM’s goal is to be on the winning side of the trade. Many will point to the Chase Claypool trade as a major misstep for Poles, but he has learned from it and now prioritizes trading for the best Approximate Value (AV).
As Patton’s article explains, “The expected value a player is anticipated to provide a team in a trade is the sum of the predicted surplus and the observed cap hit. The actual value is simply the Approximate Value (AV) produced by the player, converted to dollars.”
Consider the Keenan Allen trade this offseason, which ranked first among the top ten valuable veteran player trades. It was rated higher than deals like Brian Burns to the New York Giants, Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, and even Justin Fields being traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. These players still need to prove themselves with their new teams, but initially trading for the best value is the first step in the right direction.
First Overall Pick Trade Case Study
According to Cade Massey on The Meb Faber Show, “The first pick is the most valuable pick in the draft, but only if you don’t use it.” The truth lies in the trade the Bears made with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers moved up to select quarterback Bryce Young, while the Bears turned their return into quarterback Caleb Williams, wide receiver D.J. Moore, offensive tackle Darnell Wright, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, punter Tory Taylor, and a 2025 second-round pick. Although the long-term impact remains to be seen, the Bears are set up for future success, thanks to Ryan Poles
Building Around the Quarterback
It’s not just about finding the right quarterback, which the Bears finally seem to have accomplished. It’s also about bringing in the right pieces of the puzzle. For a team once deprived of talent on offense, the Bears now have Moore (via trade), Cole Kmet (draft), Keenan Allen (via trade), D’Andre Swift (free agency), and Rome Odunze (draft). It’s an all-star lineup on paper that should translate on the field. Ryan Poles has transformed the Bears’ franchise and is now focused on achieving the ultimate measure of a great General Manager: turning results into wins.
Main Image: Daniel Bartel – USA Today Sports
