As the offseason drags on and the countdown to the NFL season is now in double digits, what better time to take advantage of some early season-long passing prop bets? The oddsmakers at DraftKings may be giving you an early gift. Check out my four favorite season-long passing prop bets for the 2024 NFL season.
Passing Prop Bets Sure to Pay 2024 NFL Season
Dak Prescott o4150.5 Passing Yards (+105)
Dak Prescott is one of a couple different Dallas Cowboys looking to make the Cowboys regret not giving them an extension when they had a chance. Prescott is coming off a season where his 590 pass attempts ranked no.4 among quarterbacks and his 4516 passing yards ranked no.3. Only a couple small things have changed about the offense. Neither really impacts the receiving game. But, most importantly though, they really don’t have much of a running back room to lean on.
Over the last six seasons, Prescott has played 16 games in four of those seasons. During those four seasons, in the three most recent, 2023, 2021 & 2019, he has had over 500 pass attempts and 4400 passing yards. Ranking also among the quarterbacks in the top ten for air yards in those three seasons. Even in the seasons he didn’t play 16 games, his per-game pace for those metrics was among the top ten. Behind Prescott, the Cowboys love to throw the football. There is no reason to believe that changes next year. This means the over 4150.5 passing yards is easy.
Jalen Hurts o3600.5 Passing Yards (+110)
After the Philadelphia Eagles‘ brutal collapse to end last season, it gives reason to be skeptical. Except that the Eagles fired the Offensive Coordinator arguably responsible for a very stagnant and vanilla offense. The same stagnant and vanilla offense that Hurts managed a career-high 3858 passing yards in. The same pieces remain that helped Hurts in 2023, except for an upgrade at running back to Saquon Barkley. Plus, Kellen Moore enters as offensive play caller with a pass-first mentality.
Hurts has managed to surpass the over 3600.5 passing yards in his last two seasons. Nearly everything offensively is heading in a better direction next year. Of course, minus the loss of Jason Kelce at center. Over 3600.5 passing yards is easily achievable. He improved dramatically last year over the year prior in air yards, ranking no.4, averaging 274.6 per game. I see this sustaining with a more creative passing offense. There is too much playing in Hurts’ favor to buy the stretch of bad games to end last season continuing. Run with the over.
Kyler Murray o21.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)
Kyler Murray has only played in 19 games over the last two seasons due to a torn ACL. The right games he played last season were arguably one of the worst offenses in the NFL. This Arizona Cardinals receiving offense was headlined by rookie Michael Wilson, banged-up Marquise Brown, and tight ends Trey McBride and Zach Ertz. In comes Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones with returning pieces like Wilson and McBride, and suddenly, Murray is positioned much better. Not to mention fully healthy and healed.
Before these last two shortened seasons, Murray reached over 21.5 passing touchdowns in two straight seasons, 24 and 26 touchdowns. He nearly reached it in his rookie season when he threw 20 touchdowns. Last season, he had at least one passing touchdown in each of the last seven games despite coming back from injury and the lackluster offense. The 2025 Cardinals are expected to improve in the passing game with a full offseason of Murray and his new receiving weapons. Take the over 21.5 passing touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes o34.5 Passing Touchdowns (+130)
Can you believe that Patrick Mahomes is a significant underdog for a season-long passing prop bet? Well, it feels as good a time as it gets to take advantage. Mahomes has eclipsed 34.5 passing touchdowns in four of the last six seasons. One of those seasons he missed he was well on target to exceed again before suffering a Patella Dislocation mid-season. The other missed season was last season, the worst statistical season in counting passing stats of Mahomes career.
Last season was the outlier, the only season in his career where his passing touchdown rate was less than 5%. Mahomes still had 99 red zone attempts, no.3 among quarterbacks. But was mired frequently throughout the season by drops from his receivers, 35 total or 2.19 per game. This is despite a no.4 ranked catchable pass rate of 79.7%. The Kansas City Chiefs went out and signed Marquise Brown, drafted Xavier Worthy, extended Travis Kelce, and will have the top wide receiver from last season, Rashee Rice, back. Take last season as the outlier in Patrick Mahomes’ career, like me, and go for the over on Mahomes touchdown passes.
There are some great season-long passing prop bets where choosing the underdog will pay. Now is the time to get in on them before the lines start to shift.
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Main Image: Joe Rondone – USA Today Sports
