Jake Ferguson proved to be Mr. Consistent last year for the Cowboys in their passing game. Dak Prescott relied on him quite often when the offense needed a crucial first down or a redzone target. How can he build on this in his third year?
2024 Fantasy Football Profile: Jake Ferguson
2023 in Review
Ferguson took a big step forward last year from his production the year before. Going from just 19 catches for 174 yards in 2022 to 71 catches for 761 yards last year, he was a major asset for Mike McCarthy’s offense. He averaged 6.2 fantasy points per game in standard leagues and 10.3 fantasy points per game in PPR through the first 17 weeks of the season. Doing that in the same year CeeDee Lamb recorded over 1,700 receiving yards just shows how much of an impact Ferguson has in Dallas.
PPR leagues really get the most out of someone like Ferguson. He caught 3+ passes in 13/16 (81.3%) of fantasy games last season and 4+ passes in 10/16 (62.5%). Being used that often just goes to show how much Prescott trusts him. Despite scoring just five touchdowns, Ferguson was still a consistent target in redzone for Dallas.
Miss out on the top TEs? DRAFT JAKE FERGUSON 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/MLwFfK0MLd
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) July 28, 2024
2024 Projection
The Cowboys offense will still be one of the more dynamic ones in the NFL, but it’s tough to see Lamb perform at the level he did last year. That’s not to say he won’t be a star, but it’s hard to replicate those numbers. Even just a slight regression opens the door for more targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns for Ferguson. The writing is on the wall for Ferguson to step up even more. Expect him to finish in the range of 800-900 yards with 7-8 touchdowns this year.
Ferguson should at least replicate his numbers from last year given that the receiving room isn’t much different. Behind Lamb, Brandin Cooks is the only major target among the wide receivers. Cooks finished with three more touchdowns than Ferguson, while the second-year tight end produced more yards. It’s not out of the question to see Ferguson step into a more advanced role and see the Cowboys offense look similar to the Lions with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Jake Ferguson Fantasy Football ADP
FantasyPros has Ferguson’s ADP currently at 89 while going as early as 76 and as late as 130. It’s a wide range, but that variance is based on league format and roster construction. It’s clear Ferguson is much more suited for PPR-style leagues rather than standard. He still has value in standard leagues, but there are other options on the table for that format.
Ferguson won’t be considered the steal of the draft this year with his ADP, but he’s still a player you don’t want to pass up if you get to rounds 7-9 and still need a tight end. At that point, he should be the target for your next pick. There’s concerns about him regressing in the Cowboys offense, but a young tight end with so much potential and upside doesn’t seem like the one who would start declining. Ferguson is a must-draft player in fantasy this year, and your team will be better off if you get him sooner rather than later.
Main Image Courtesy of Jonathan Owens – USA Today Sports
