Throughout the first two seasons of his career, George Pickens has made a name for himself for better or worse. From hauling in a ridiculous one-handed catch in his third NFL game to becoming a polarizing figure for effort concerns, he’s experienced numerous highs and lows. Heading into year three, Pickens looks to become a consistent producer and continue his dominance on the perimeter.
George Pickens 2024 Fantasy Football Profile
Becoming a WR1
Pickens is entering the third season of his NFL career with a solid track record, but things are different in Pittsburgh this time. Pickens heads into training camp as the team’s undisputed WR1 for the first time as a pro. Diontae Johnson was traded to Carolina this offseason in a move that gives Pickens a golden opportunity to reach another level. Johnson’s route-running abilities made him a frequent target for Kenny Pickett and Ben Roethlisberger at the end of his career. He saw at least 144 targets in each season from 2020 to 2022. However, Pickens’s emergence in 2023 and an injury that sidelined Johnson for a month resulted in a mere 87 targets. With Johnson’s ability to soak up targets out of the picture, Pickens bears the WR1 role moving forward.
Though he’s in a larger role now, Pickens’ growth from year one to two gives reason to believe he can easily transition. His 800-yard campaign as a rookie wasn’t flawless, and he had some work to do. Primarily, critics raised questions about Pickens’ ability to separate as a route runner and rack up yards after the catch. He responded by improving in every possible statistic.
Rookie season (per game): 4.9 targets, 3.1 receptions, 47.1 yards, 15.6% target share, 9.8 fantasy PPG
Sophomore season (per game): 6.2 targets, 3.7 receptions, 67.1 yards, 20.8% target share, 12.3 fantasy PPG
As alluded to above, Pittsburgh’s other top wideout missed a month of the season due to injury. Pickens seamlessly picked up the slack with Johnson out of the lineup. In four games with Johnson on the sidelines, Pickens accumulated 357 yards and two touchdowns on 33 targets. It’s a small sample size, but it showed Pickens’ ability to operate as the de facto WR1.
Quarterback Changes
It’s spring of 2022. Long-time Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger announced his retirement. Pittsburgh tries to immediately replace him with a feel-good story: a first-round pick from the University of Pittsburgh. It sounds too good to be true, and in hindsight, it was.
After playing parts of two seasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers decided to move on from Kenny Pickett. To anybody watching the games or even checking the box scores, it’s no surprise Pickett is on his way to being a backup. The blame isn’t entirely on him, but he failed to elevate the team and was a decent game manager on his best days. Instead, veteran signal-caller Russell Wilson is taking over as Pittsburgh’s starter. This move would’ve been far more exciting a few years ago, but Wilson’s notable struggles in Denver halted the hype. Still, there’s a night-and-day difference between a struggling veteran and a downright bust, and the numbers show it.
Pickett’s last two seasons: 4474 passing yards (179 per game), 6.3 yards/attempt, 13 TDs to 13 INT
Wilson’s last two seasons: 6594 passing yards (219.8 per game), 7.1 yards/attempt, 42 TDs to 19 INT
Even the backup plan this year is more enticing than the starter a year ago. The Steelers paid a small price to acquire 25-year-old quarterback Justin Fields from the Bears this offseason. This move was a no-brainer for Pittsburgh. It’s unreasonable to think Wilson will play for much longer, even if the 35-year-old returns to form. Fields is a capable backup for now and hopes to learn and develop into a starter throughout the season.
Pickett’s last two seasons: 4474 passing yards (179 per game), 6.3 yards/attempt, 13 TDs to 13 INT
Fields’ last two seasons: 4804 passing yards (171.6 per game), 7.0 yards/attempt, 33 TDs to 20 INT
A New Scheme
Changes made to the wide receiver and quarterback positions objectively bode well for Pickens. What’s less promising is the offensive coordinator they hired this offseason. Arthur Smith is stepping in to run Pittsburgh’s offense after making himself public enemy number one for fantasy football managers. Smith received significant criticism for his odd usage of star players in Atlanta (Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson) who put up underwhelming numbers. It’s easy to forget the last time he was a coordinator, the Tennessee Titans were the top seed in the AFC playoffs with an efficient offense. Now that Smith is back in a lessened role, he can hone in on his craft that once brought great success.
Pickens Projections for 2024
While these changes imply good things for Pickens, it’s challenging to project exact numbers with everything in flux. A reasonable 17-game stat line looks like 130 targets, 80-85 receptions, 1200 yards, and seven touchdowns. That results in roughly 14.2 PPR points per game, which is adjacent to that of a top-20 receiver. He’s currently going as the WR27 on Underdog, a decent bargain for a receiver who presents the floor and upside that Pickens does this season.
Main Image: Charles LeClaire – USA Today Sports
