Wide receiver is the most sought-after position in fantasy football. With players focusing their draft strategies on elite receivers this season, the use of metrics is more important than ever to find advantages.
We know that CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill are slam dunk picks. But, being deep in a position still matters. No matter how good a single player is, a fantasy build is only as good as the players that surround your first-round picks. In today’s installment of “Understanding Analytics”, I’ll give you three players that are under-drafted and will give you the depth needed to take your team over the top.
Understanding Analytics: WR Metrics in Fantasy Football
Metric One: Average Depth of Target
What is it?
Average Depth of Target (or ADoT) is the average number of yards downfield a player was on average when being thrown the football. Players who are targeted further down the field, in most cases, generate more yards and fantasy points.
Player to Target: Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Fantasy Points Per Game, 2023: 15.0 (PPR WR23)
ADoT, 2023: 14.4
This is an easy call. Dell, prior to his season-ending injury, was quarterback C.J. Stroud‘s go-to guy. His ADoT amongst Texans receivers was 1.7 yards better than his next closest teammate, Noah Brown, nearly three yards better than Nico Collins‘ and almost four yards better than new teammate Stefon Diggs.
Houston is a popular offense to target for fantasy football purposes this season. But, trying to figure out where to find success an easy place to start is the yardage. Targets are unstable. However, how those targets play out is more predictable. Even with fewer targets, Dell is a strong choice to outperform his current WR32 at FantasyPros.
Furthermore, he is currently the cheapest wide receiver on Houston’s roster in terms of ADP. His usage and price make him nearly impossible to ignore.
Metric Two: Yards After Catch per Reception
What is it?
Yards After Catch (or YAC) simply calculates how many yards a player is generating after a reception. For example, if a ball is caught two yards behind the line of scrimmage and a player ends up with an eight-yard gain, they generate 10 yards after the catch.
Player to Target: Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Points Per Game, 2023: 6.7 (PPR WR74)
YAC per Reception, 2023: 7.3 (7th among WRs with at least eight games played)
The Buffalo Bills’ passing game faces a lot of uncertainty heading into this season. Their offensive approach seems to be favoring more of a Kansas City-esque approach with how the roster is built. All signs seem to point towards Dalton Kincaid being more of a Travis Kelce in the offense.
However, in Kansas City’s offense last season, there was plenty of room for wide receivers to operate within certain roles. If that is the case, it will give Shakir plenty of opportunities to be successful. Not only did he average 7.3 yards after the catch per reception last season, but he also had an ADoT of 8.6. The translation? Not only can Shakir make people miss with the ball in his hands but he also was trusted to do a fair amount of work in the intermediate route areas.
It’s an interesting mix for a player who is being drafted as the WR60. He, too, is currently the cheapest wide receiver in terms of ADP on his team.
Metric Two: Yards Yards per Route Run
What is it?
Yards per Route Run (YPRR) takes the total amount of receiving yards a receiver accumulated and divides it by the amount of routes a receiver ran. The goal is to give us an idea of how efficient a wide receiver is per opportunity.
Player to Target: Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Points Per Game, 2023: 15.1 (PPR WR18)
YPRR, 2023: 2.31 (13th among WRs with at least 90 targets)
Yards per Route Run tends to be more of a top-heavy category as more productive receivers are more efficient. However, Cooper’s case comes in where he’s being drafted. Even with a top-15 YPRR last season, Cooper’s ADP is WR24. He’s a receiver with a low-end WR1 upside that is being taken as though he’s a borderline WR3.
Cooper is currently undervalued and returns to a Cleveland offense where he’s the top option. If the offense returns to the usage it showed with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, it means a killer opportunity for Cooper to return huge value for your fantasy teams in 2024.
Main Photo: [Thomas Shea] – USA Today Sports
