The expectations for the Chicago Bears’ first overall pick, Caleb Williams, are undeniably high. Already named the starting quarterback in an offense brimming with talent, Williams is poised to excel. Aware of the immense pressure, he has committed himself to becoming the shining light the Bears have desperately been searching for at quarterback. With aspirations to exceed Tom Brady’s Super Bowl wins, Williams must back up his ambitious goals by proving he has what it takes on the field. As the season nears, an ESPN analyst weighed in on Williams’ projected stat line and what 2024 might hold for the top pick.
ESPN’s Projected Stat Line for Caleb Williams Revealed
Projections for Caleb Williams’ Rookie Season
Here’s a breakdown of what ESPN’s Mike Clay predicts Caleb Williams’ stat line will look like for his rookie campaign.
- 331/512 (64.6%)
- 3,538 yards
- 23 touchdowns
- 13 interceptions
- 89.1 passer rating
This may look like average numbers for a team, but for the Bears, this would be the fifth-best season for a QB in Bears’ history. If Williams throws for 196 completions for 2,193 passing yards and only 11 touchdowns, he’ll have the best rookie season for a quarterback in Chicago’s history. The bar is set extremely low for Williams, but with one of the best-supporting casts in the NFL, there are higher expectations for him.
If Caleb Williams throws for…
196 completions
2,193 passing yards
11 passing TDsHe will break the Chicago Bears ALL TIME rookie passing records.
Really not a high bar for Williams 🤣 pic.twitter.com/OVLoYVGC2m
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) March 21, 2024
What Achieving These Statistics Means for Caleb Williams and the Bears
Williams nearly reaching 4,000 passing yards would be remarkable, given that the Bears are the only NFL team without a 4,000-yard passer. However, projecting just 23 touchdowns seems low. With one of the top receiving groups in the league, it’s hard to envision Williams throwing fewer than 25 touchdowns. On the other hand, throwing for 13 interceptions seems generous. It’s not that Williams will have a bad season, but with 331 passes, there will be some growing pains, and it’s ok if Williams makes mistakes. It’s more important not to be overly cautious about throwing interceptions, which is one of the main reasons Justin Fields’ career didn’t go as planned with the Bears.
Expectations for Caleb Williams’ Rookie Season
Last season, the first and second-overall picks Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud had drastically different rookie seasons. Young was struggling under constant pressure and a lack of talent around him, while Stroud went on to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 23 touchdowns with only five interceptions. Now, on a scale from Young’s rookie season to Stroud’s rookie season, the expectations for Williams are closer to Stroud’s side. It might not be the type of numbers Stroud put up, but it should be good enough to validate the Bears’ decision to trade Fields and draft Williams.
This is a different situation. Williams isn’t walking into a situation where the team is starting a rebuild. He’s surrounded by star players and one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. The Bears also have one of the top defenses in the NFL, with difference makers in all three levels. Unlike his college days at USC, Williams won’t have to do everything himself. With plenty of talent to support him, as long as he continues to grow and learn during his rookie season, he’ll set himself up for significant success in the future.
Main Image: Kamil Krzaczynski – USA Today Sports
