The Buffalo Bills can’t replace star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. But they can try to recreate him in the aggregate. At least, that’s what general manager Brandon Beane is aiming for.
Since Josh Allen’s breakout in year two, the Bills have possessed one of the league’s most dangerous passing attacks. But Allen’s breakout (and continued success) is closely connected to Diggs’ arrival. Now that the tandem has split, Allen and the Bills offense look for other avenues to preserve their offensive potency.
Buffalo Bills ‘Moneyball’ Approach At Wide Receiver
Short Passing Game
The eye test will tell you Allen pushes the ball downfield more than most quarterbacks. The numbers back it up, as well. Over the last three seasons, his average depth of target ranks 3rd, 3rd, and 7th in the NFL. In simpler words, Allen’s average pass attempt is deeper than nearly any other quarterback. But without a star receiver who consistently gets open downfield, their philosophy must change. It happened to Mahomes when the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, and now it’s Allen’s turn to adjust.
Look for the Bills to rely on second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid in this part of the field. Kincaid’s role is a hybrid blend between a tight end and a slot receiver. Only one tight end lined up in the slot more than Kincaid last season. His average target depth (4.9) was one of the lowest in the league last year, further exemplifying his role as a slot receiver who works shallow areas of the field. Though slightly undersized, Kincaid’s athleticism sets him apart from most tight ends. His quickness and lateral agility generate separation before and after the catch. When taken in the first round of last year’s draft, the goal was for him to develop into a Travis Kelce-like target for Allen. Now, he faces a golden opportunity to establish himself as the team’s top pass catcher.
If you aren’t familiar with Khalil Shakir yet, you will be by the end of the year. Shakir was a fifth-round pick in 2022 who’s developed better than anyone expected. He followed up a quiet rookie season with a sophomore campaign consisting of nearly 40 receptions for 600 yards. Like Kincaid, most of this came from quick receptions on short routes while he racked up yards after the catch. His 7.6 yards after the catch per reception is as impressive as it sounds. Shakir ranked 4th among all players in that stat. With Diggs out of the picture, expect Shakir to receive more snaps and targets.
Note: Others like James Cook and offseason addition Curtis Samuel frequently help out in the short-to-intermediate passing game. But they bring more to the table than that, and it’s unjust to put them in either category.
Deep Passing Game
Nobody who owns a sports car wants to drive it like a minivan. And nobody who employs Josh Allen wants to turn him into a check-down artist. While the average pass attempt should be shorter in 2024, Allen and the Bills will maintain some of their old identity.
The most noteworthy addition to Buffalo’s passing attack is 6’4″, 215lb rookie Keon Coleman. The Florida State standout needs a year or two of development to reach his ceiling, but he’ll contribute instantly. Coleman’s size and downfield speed are a welcomed addition to Buffalo’s receiver room and will pair nicely with Allen’s arm talent. In time, Coleman strives to fill the void Diggs vacated at X-receiver.
Beyond Coleman, further additions to Buffalo’s receiver room include Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, and Chase Claypool. These veterans are nothing more than rotational role players, but they’ll provide depth and the occasional splash play. Valdes-Scantling’s top-notch speed stresses defenses, Hollins’ ball skills make him a trusted target, and Claypool looks to rediscover his game.
Rather than hyper-focusing on one target, expect the Bills’ passing game to look more diverse this year. No player figures to see double-digit targets consistently, but their roles and play styles make for a well-rounded scheme. It’s up to offensive coordinator Joe Brady to fit all the puzzle pieces together.
Main Image: Jamie Germano – USA Today Sports
