As Charger fans, we expect our beloved quarterback, Justin Herbert, to perform at the top five to ten level like he has his entire career. While his play may reflect a quarterback who is in the top ten of the totem pole, the box score statistics may tell a different story. So, what should we expect from Justin Herbert in 2024?
It’s No Longer Justin Herbert vs. The World
The last few seasons for the 2020 sixth overall selection have been filled with trials and tribulations. Justin Herbert has only had to carry this team on his back since his rookie season. “Well, he has weapons, right?” Not exactly. Injuries from Herbert himself to his entire offense, inconsistent play, and a constant change in offense have led to offensive struggles in the past. Whether it’s Joe Lombardi calling “stick” for the fifteenth time in a game, Justin Herbert playing through broken ribs, Austin Ekeler averaging 2 yards per carry, or simply Quentin Johnston having a struggle-some rookie season, Herbert desperately needs help.
So, how about his defense? Brandon Staley was hired to give Justin Herbert the defense that he deserves. How about 29, 21, and 24 points allowed every season he was the Head Coach of the Chargers? To no one surprise, having a bottom-10 defense will lead to the team missing the playoffs. When the former Oregon Duck was given a defense that was not in the bottom ten in the NFL (just barely, it was #11 worst!) he made the playoffs. Interesting how that happens.
Moral of the story: Please, somebody give Justin Herbert what he deserves. Help.
Luckily for the Chargers and their 262.5 million dollar quarterback, Dean Spanos pulled the trigger and blew the coaching and front office up mid-season. He replaced Tom Telesco and Brandon Staley with quite possibly the best two options on the market. Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz. If there is finally a chance for Herbert to get the help he deserves, it’s through these guys leading the way.
Team Success vs Box Score Stats
The Chargers currently have an 8.5 over/under for their win total in 2024, according to FOX Sports. This would be a vast improvement from their win total in 2023. The narrative around Justin Herbert will likely change with more team success under his belt. However, his box score statistics will likely be much worse than in previous seasons. It’s funny how a player playing “worse” could lead to a much more positive narrative due to things out of their control.
To explain why his statistics are much more likely to be worse, but the narrative will change for the elite signal caller lies in two major categories: The Greg Roman & Jim Harbaugh way and the lack of receiving talent on the team.
The Greg Roman & Jim Harbaugh Way
This new regime for the Bolts will be reminiscent of the Chargers heyday in the late 2000s. A dominant run game that led then-San Diego to victory. This 2024 team is built to run the football, due to the approach taken by the new staff brought in. As it stands currently, the front office has brought in three new running backs, a first-round offensive tackle, the best run-first offensive coordinator in all of football (although his passing attack leaves much to be desired), and two new tight ends to further the need to dominate in the trenches.
Justin Herbert’s run game has ranked 17th, 30th, and 27th in the last three years. Getting back to, at minimum, that middle-of-the-pack rank will greatly help #10. Under Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh, expecting a top-ten run game is not too much to ask for. Greg Roman (with Lamar Jackson) ranked anywhere from #1 in the league to #5 in the league in yards per attempt in his four seasons with the Ravens.
Beyond a hard-nosed run game behind a solid offensive line, the Chargers will likely be looking to play with a lead and focus their play calling to run the clock down. Smart football is the name of the game for Harbaugh. He did not go undefeated and win a National Championship last season for no reason. This will lead to fewer passing plays and worse “box score statistics” for our beloved Herbert. However, winning football games is the only thing that seems to matter in the media’s eyes regarding quarterbacks. Stats: Down. Narrative: Up.
Lack of Weapons
The last reason to expect Justin Herbert to have a “down year” is due to his complete lack of receiving talent. Everyone knows how bad this Chargers receiver room is currently. Joshua Palmer has shown to be an excellent receiver at the NFL level but has struggled with injuries. He will serve as the team’s #1 receiver. Next is the second-round selection, Ladd McConkey. The Georgia receiver will likely serve as the team’s starting slot receiver who can take snaps at “Z.” McConkey is expected to be a high-volume receiver who will move the chains and gather plenty of catch-and-run opportunities. The last spot is between the veteran DJ Chark and last year’s first-round selection, Quentin Johnston.
Chark had a down year in Carolina (like every offensive player on that team) and had trouble separating. However, he does have a 1000-yard season under his belt and elite athleticism. Speaking of elite athletes, Johnston is another option for Herbert. The down year from the rookie gives many Charger fans reason to believe that he cannot make it at the NFL level, but some of the best receivers in the NFL took some time to develop. The talent and drive are there for Johnston.
All in all, the situation for the Bolts pertaining to catching options is pretty slim. Justin Herbert is relying on (in a nutshell) an injury-prone receiver who has never been more than a #2 in the NFL, a second-round rookie, a veteran who struggled to separate last season, and a former first-round selection coming off a very tough rookie season. Not the best options for the passing game.
Predicting Justin Herbert’s Stats in 2024
Considering the Chargers lack of talent in the pass-catching department, and the offensive philosophy, superstar quarterback Justin Herbert is likely to have a “down season.” However, winning football games is all that matters at the end of the day, and this coaching staff has given us every reason to believe that is in the near future.
- Passing Yards: 4,250
- Passing TDs: 26
- Completion Percentage: 69%
- Interceptions: 6
- Rushing Yards: 375
- Rushing TDs: 5
The media will likely tell you that Herbert “hasn’t won” and is “not elite,” but context matters. After this 2024 season, the narrative will change. Throughout Justin Herbert’s entire career, he has proved doubters wrong. This weird narrative that he is not a winner and it’s all his fault is just the next thing for him to prove wrong.
Main Image: Kirby Lee – USA Today Sports
