In an unexpected twist on draft night, the Buffalo Bills made a deal with the Kansas City Chiefs to allow them to trade up. The Bills allowed one of their biggest rivals and kryptonite in the AFC to trade ahead of them to address a major need. The same major need the Bills had. Wide receiver. What does landing with Patrick Mahomes do for Xavier Worthy dynasty outlook?
Xavier Worthy Dynasty Outlook
The History
Xavier Worthy committed to Texas in 2021 and was immediately thrown into the mix his freshman season. He went on to explode for 62 receptions, 981 yards, and twelve touchdowns as a true freshman. This broke receiving yard and touchdown records for a Texas freshman. This was only the beginning of a huge three-year career where Worthy inserted his name a few more times in Texas football history.
Worthy finished his Texas career third all-time in touchdown receptions, fourth all-time in receiving yards, and sixth in receptions. He took a slight step back in his sophomore season with 60 receptions, 760 yards and nine touchdowns. Before wrapping up his college career and declaring for the NFL draft after a strong junior season: 75 receptions, 1014 yards, and five touchdowns. Worthy departed for the NFL decorated with several impressive accolades from Texas to Big 12 to All-American!
The Prospect
Xavier Worthy’s prospect profile starts as a growing number of wide receiver profiles do in today’s NFL, undersized. At 5’11 and 165 lbs, he has elite speed, running a 4.21 40-yard dash to surpass John Ross’ previously held record. His thin frame will make facing press coverage challenging. His ability is also limited in contested catch situations. Worthy’s run-after-catch ability, if left with any open field or a missed tackle forced, is dangerous thanks to his game-breaking speed. Speed is the name of Worthy’s game and it can be hugely beneficial for a team requiring a field stretching outside wide receiver.
Watch – Full 2024 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
The Situation
The Kansas City Chiefs’ annual hunt to replace what they had at wide receiver in Tyreek Hill is unrelenting. We see new names thrown into the mix every year. And of course, landing with the No.1 quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, drives all rookie or free-agent wide receiver arrivals fantasy value.
The current wide receiver room leaves some things to be desired. Rashee Rice showed promise last year but finds himself in hot water due to outside football issues. Hollywood Brown is on his way in on a one-year prove-it deal, but his ability to stay healthy remains in question. Then after that, a host of unproven and inconsistent talent. Travis Kelce at tight end will remain the No.1 and most consistently targeted weapon for Mahomes. The picture paints well for Xavier Worthy and the opportunity is for the taken.
Despite Mahomes leading consistently a top-ten passing offense in attempts and yards, wide receivers just haven’t found sustained success since Tyreek Hill. He consistently can maintain Kelce plus one wide receiver for 100+ targets. In his career, he has never had multiple 100+ target wide receivers. Fantasy managers are often left frustrated by the outcome of their Chiefs wide receivers despite the high-octane offense.
What ultimately comes of the Rice legal situation will play into ceiling expectations for Worthy. Rice was Mahomes’ most trusted wide receiver last year with 102 targets. While Justin Watson had 53 and Marquez Valdes Scantling 42. This makes available a middling 118 targets. However, Watson’s targets will scale back with Hollywood Brown and Worthy joining the target competition. The situation on paper is optimal. Historically, based on Mahomes and wide receivers, the situation leaves much to be desired.
Xavier Worthy Dynasty Outlook
One stat stood out to me thanks to Ian Miller at PlayerProfiler appearance on Mind of Mansion. Xavier Worthy joins only four other wide receivers: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Sammy Watkins, and Jordan Addison, to average at least 14 fantasy points per game in each collegiate season. Worthy has an impressive and not-too-often-seen production profile coming out of college. While it may not include these huge boom seasons we have become accustomed to wide receiver prospects. He remained a consistent and trusted piece of the Texas offense. Mahomes has needed consistency in his wide receiver room for the past couple seasons.
Watch – Xavier Worthy Film Study
Per KeepTradeCut, Worthy in Superflex rookie drafts is the 10th player or WR4. As noted in my Keon Coleman piece after the top three wide receivers and Brock Bowers, the field opens up with non-quarterback options. It will truly be about managers weighing skill, plus current and future opportunities for the next six names, Worthy, Coleman, Bowers, Brian Thomas, Ladd McConkey, and Jonathan Brooks. At this point in a rookie draft, it will be about need and there is a case for all of them to be the pick.
Xavier Worthy in Start-ups
I like Worthy and the pairing of college production and NFL opportunity. The skillset and situational limitations will cap his ceiling for fantasy managers. He doesn’t strike me as a consistent WR2 option. He is currently ranked the WR27 in superflex or player rank no.70, late round six. Not bad and you can justify the pick if you have established your wide receiving corps with two cornerstone starting wide receivers. Take for example, you have landed Marvin Harrison and AJ Brown. This to me provides the insulation to take a shot on Worthy.
If you have taken an approach heavier at maybe quarterback and running back and Worthy maybe in consideration as your WR2. I would be far more weary to go for Worthy because I don’t think there will be consistent enough fantasy output to be a wide receiver you would need to lean on week in and week out.
A couple things are playing positively to Xavier Worthy dynasty outlook. There are also a couple things that create an air of uncertainty about where his floor and ceiling are as a fantasy producer. Being a Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver creates a dynamic and positive potential dynasty outlook. But will it happen?
Main Photo Credit: Sara Diggins / USA TODAY NETWORK
