With the 2024 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, now’s the time to look ahead to the start of the season. Not all players are created equally, and their situations differ on a case-by-case basis. Here’s what to expect from each rookie quarterback in their first NFL season.
Year One Expectations for 2024 Rookie Quarterbacks
Tier 1 – Immediate Impact
Caleb Williams
The first overall pick in the NFL draft figures to be the first rookie quarterback taken in fantasy drafts. Caleb Williams’ talent speaks for itself. He’s dynamic as a thrower and a runner, which implies a very high upside for fantasy football. Beyond his own abilities, he walks into a dream scenario for a first-overall pick to succeed. D.J. Moore is coming off a career-high 1,364-yard season and might not even be the Bears‘ best receiver. They traded for veteran Keenan Allen, drafted Rome Odunze with the ninth pick, and added role players like running back D’Andre Swift and tight end Gerald Everett. Williams offers QB1 upside as a rookie, although it could take a few weeks before he’s a consistent producer.
Jayden Daniels
Quarterbacks don’t necessarily have to be good players to be good fantasy assets. Just look at Justin Fields. He finished as a top-six quarterback in 2022, but now he’s a backup and was traded for a late-round pick. Jayden Daniels is likely another case of a quarterback who’s better for fantasy football than in reality. Daniels ran for over 1,100 yards at LSU last season, and his rushing ability should carry over into the NFL. His legs make him an enticing option at the end of drafts with the potential to finish as a top-10 quarterback.
Tier 2 – Boom-or-Bust
Drake Maye
A common complaint about Drake Maye is a lack of experience, which led to some unforced errors in college. He’s 21-years-old and won’t turn 22 until a week before the season begins. Because of his inexperience, some expect veteran Jacoby Brissett to be New England’s starter to open the season. Once Maye is on the field, he’ll be in the middle of an unexciting unit with plenty of question marks. He showed he could produce with a poor surrounding cast in college, and now he has to do it against the best players in the world. There’s no questioning Maye’s ceiling, but it may take a year or two before reaching those heights.
Tier 3 – Limited Upside
J.J. McCarthy
Once again, J.J. McCarthy finds himself in a dream scenario that takes pressure off him. McCarthy has the luxury of throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson when he returns. As an excellent game manager in college, he should have no problems picking up where he left off. His biggest obstacle is simply getting onto the field. There’s no guarantee he will begin the year as Minnesota’s starting quarterback. That responsibility likely belongs to Sam Darnold, although we’ll see how long his reign lasts. McCarthy is a safe option insulated by a positive environment but could be a benchwarmer for half a season.
Bo Nix
The Denver Broncos drafted a quarterback out of desperation, and it’s a scary situation for Bo Nix. Besides Courtland Sutton, there’s little proven talent to work with in the passing game. Between a lack of quality receivers and a lack of individual rushing upside, it’s hard to get excited for Nix. The only positive is that he’s almost certainly the team’s starting quarterback. Nix enters the league with plenty of experience after starting five full seasons in college and faces little resistance to earning the starting job. This role raises his floor in 2QB and Superflex leagues, but Nix is virtually useless in traditional formats.
Tier 4 – Honorable Mentions
Michael Penix Jr.
There’s a high probability that Michael Penix Jr. won’t throw a single pass this season. Despite being the eighth overall pick, there’s no expectation that he’ll overtake Kirk Cousins as the starter. But if Cousins gets injured, Penix immediately becomes an intriguing option in 2QB leagues. Atlanta has an arsenal of offensive playmakers, and Penix thrived within a pass-heavy offense at Washington.
Spencer Rattler
It didn’t take long for Saints fans to turn on Derek Carr. Halfway through his first season with the team, the fanbase was ready to move on. Carr is undoubtedly their week one starter, but his future is unclear. Expect to hear rumors of a quarterback change if Carr struggles at the start of the season. That would thrust fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler into action.
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