The Buffalo Bills were in major need of a wide receiver after trading Stefon Diggs and letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency. Despite bringing in Curtis Samuel, the need at wide receiver remained heading into draft weekend. The Bills traded back twice, one time allowing one of their biggest recent rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs, to address their own need at wide receiver. Finally, the Bills made the pick at the top of round two, pick 33, to select Keon Coleman. Is a premium landing spot with Josh Allen enough to boost Keon Coleman’s dynasty outlook?
Keon Coleman Dynasty Outlook
The History
Keon Coleman originally committed to Michigan State in 2021 where he played in ten games as a true freshman. He ended up with a minimal 50 yards on seven receptions plus a touchdown. He began to emerge in his sophomore season with the Spartans. Coleman would lead Michigan State in receiving with 58 receptions, 798 yards, and seven touchdowns. He was closely followed by current Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed.
Coleman then made the decision to transfer to the ACC and join the Florida State Seminoles for his junior season. Despite appearing in 12 games for the second season in a row, his total receiving production declined. Except for touchdowns, where he had a career-high 11. He finished with 50 receptions and 658 yards, good enough to lead the Seminoles in receiving. He also earned himself First-Team All-ACC honors at wide receiver, all-purpose and specialist positions. Joining fellow 2024 draftee Clemson RB Will Shipley as the only two players in college football to take home the honor at three positions.
The Prospect
Keon Coleman sports an impressive frame and expansive catch radius standing 6’3”, 213 pounds, and a 68th-percentile wingspan. This helps him to win in jump-ball situations and his highlight reels certainly show some rather ridiculous grabs. Beyond that, his athletic profile lacks quite a bit including an underwhelming 4.61 40-yard dash time. The lack of speed and average route running could be some cause for pause, as he may struggle to separate against corners on the outside. There will be limitations to his game at the next level. However, the size is there. The above-the-rim capabilities are there. He will be tough to challenge outside the numbers and in the red zone with those attributes.
The Situation
Despite a lackluster college production profile, finishing with 115 receptions, 1506 total receiving yards, and 19 touchdowns, Coleman declared for the NFL draft and landed in one of the best situations. Two major things play in his favor in this situation. His quarterback, Josh Allen, is one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL. Then, of course, the depth chart consisted of Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Mack Hollins before Coleman was drafted.
Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs’s departures, the Buffalo Bills No.1 and No.3 most targetted in volume, vacate 231 targets. This leaves a ton of volume available for a wide-open receiving room. The Bills ranked No.14 in pass attempts per game at 34 and No.10 in passing yards per game with 238 yards. This is a team that despite their losses on the receiving side of the ball, won’t stop throwing. The draft capital is a fair indicator that opportunity will likely usurp any limitations to his game or lack of college production for Coleman.
Keon Coleman Dynasty Outlook
After the top three wide receivers and Brock Bowers, rookie drafts will get started at non-quarterback positions. Perceived current and future opportunities also seem to be king with how people may choose between Keon Coleman, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas, and Jonathon Brooks. Currently, per KeepTradeCut Superflex rookie rankings, Coleman is landing 13th, at the top of round two. In drafts, I have seen him go as high as the pick eight through ten. The top of the second round is reasonable for Coleman given the situation.
When considering him in dynasty startups he is currently ranked 83rd or the WR32. You would likely be looking at a late-seventh or early-eighth-round pick. When considering how you might be building your roster, I am not sure I’d be ready to take Coleman as likely your WR2 or 3 here.
This is an area where, if you hadn’t already, would be considering your final shot at viable QB options. Bo Nix, Will Levis, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Michael Penix, and Deshaun Watson are there as QB21-26. There is also a run on the low-end RB1s and high-end RB2s. James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco, and Rachaad White to name a couple. Plus there is an intriguing mix of established wide receivers with good opportunities like Christian Kirk, Christian Watson, and Diontae Johnson there for you at your next pick about 12 ranks later. It makes better sense to pass depending on how your first six picks went.
The Verdict
The opportunity and draft capital are real. The skillset and college production profile have holes. History teaches us these holes mean an unlikely hood of Coleman being a long-term answer as a WR1. Coleman feels more like a big play threat like Gabe Davis, then a productive, target-hog like Stefon Diggs. Keon Coleman’s dynasty outlook will be interesting to watch, especially in the first couple of seasons that could make or break the ultimate opportunity with the Bills.
Main Photo: Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun-USA TODAY NETWORK
