The phrase “you’re not in the draft room, so your opinion isn’t valid” no longer applies. A new era of NFL Drafting has emerged, where data and big boards are used to justify the selection of certain players. Take a team like the New England Patriots. Many people trusted the Patriots because of their repertoire, even if they selected an unknown prospect or someone who wasn’t projected to go that high in the draft. That doesn’t work anymore.
Consider the 2024 NFL Draft: Atlanta Falcons General Manager Terry Fontenot opted for Michael Penix in the first round despite having invested $100 million in guaranteed money for 36-year-old Kirk Cousins. Is this selection a misstep? The verdict remains uncertain. However, what’s evident is the increasing significance of data and big boards in having successful drafts in the NFL.
Unpacking The Future of NFL Drafting
How The Consensus Big Board Plays A Part In NFL Drafting
The Consensus Big Board is a draft board that Arif Hasan made. The premise of this big board is over 100 analysts come together to list the top 300 players in the NFL Draft. Austin Gale of The Ringer pointed out some statistics regarding the consensus board.
87% of the first-round picks (27 of 32 on average) over the last three years have been top 32 players on the consensus board.
On average, only five players drafted in the first round over the last three years are outside the top 32 players.
82% of the top 100 picks are top 100 players on the consensus board over the last three years.
NFL teams neglecting to utilize the consensus board risk underperforming in the draft. Taking a player way off the consensus big board is malpractice. However, teams sometimes hesitate to draft a player listed on the consensus big board. Most times, it’s due to injury concerns or character issues that make teams uneasy. But doctors often clear those injury concerns, and there’s no evidence of character issues. As a result, we see highly talented players like Jer’Zhan Newton, Adonai Mitchell, and Laiatu Latu fall in the draft.
Outcome Of Choosing Whether To Use The Big Board Or Not In The Draft
The Pittsburgh Steelers, a team notorious for always staying above .500, are the only team in the NFL that has drafted at or better than the consensus in the last three years, excluding one pick—Kenny Pickett. Similarly, the Eagles are another example of a team where people say, “How did that player fall to the Eagles?” There’s nothing magical about these teams; it’s the fact that they stick to drafting players who are in the consensus big board.
Conversely, specific teams draft based on their metrics, frequently deviating from the consensus big board. Jaguars GM Trent Baalke made seven out of nine selections in the 2024 NFL Draft that were more than 40 spots removed from the consensus big board. While the outcomes of the Jaguars 2024 draft selections remain uncertain, there’s a prevailing sentiment across the league that the Pittsburgh Steelers had a better draft than the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The New Era Of Consensus Big Boards
A significant lesson learned from this is the importance of big boards. As fans, we now have access to these comprehensive rankings, enabling us to make informed judgments about which teams have successful drafts overall. Relying on intuition and personal metrics to select players is no longer effective. Over the next couple of years, look for more teams to be involved in using the consensus big boards, and those who don’t may miss out on the advantages it offers.
Main Image: Eric Seals / USA TODAY NETWORK
