Part two of the still-too-early running back rankings is where we find the great players in questionable situations. Rebuilt offensive lines, and new head coaches or coordinators mean some may not live up to their potential. But they’re still great players, so who knows?
Still, Too Early Fantasy Running Back Rankings – Part 2
13. Rachaad White
The Buccaneers were ranked 32nd for rushing yards in 2023, mainly because they were 23rd for rushing attempts. But White was the 4th highest-scoring fantasy running back. So, this is a very low ranking for a previously successful running back. But. Here’s the thing, the brains behind the 2023 Bucs offense are now the brains behind the 2024 Panthers team. Liam Cohen has replaced Dave Canales.
Cohen was the Rams offensive coordinator during Baker Mayfield’s brief stay in L.A., so it’s good news for the quarterback. Probably less so for Tampa Bay’s running game. The Rams ranked 27th for rushing yards in 2022 and their running backs only caught 36 passes. White caught 64 of his 70 targets in 2023. So, it seems unlikely White will have such a prominent role in 2024.
14. Raheem Mostert
The Dolphins backfield is very much a committee affair. In 2023 six different backs ran the ball! Mostert benefitted from everyone’s work as he notched up a league-leading 18 touchdowns. It’s unlikely he’ll match that record this season and with De’Von Achane’s emergence Mostert stands to lose a share of the carries he had in 2023 too. But with Mike McDaniel and Frank Smith, the Dolphins’ run game will still be one of the most dynamic in the league. At least during the regular season.
The only new faces to arrive in Miami so far during free agency are a tight end, a new center, and a guard. Jonnu Smith is more of a pass-catching tight end, so the Miami offense may be even more Tua-centric in 2024.
15.De’Von Achane
On the subject of the Miami Dolphins running back room, Achane was a revelation when Mike McDaniel unleashed him on the league. It was only injuries that slowed him down, but he still averaged 7.7 yards per touch in his rookie season! And he averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game, but he only played in 11 games.
If he can play every game next season he’ll significantly improve on his 190.7 fantasy points. And maybe McDaniel will let him steal some of Mostert’s touchdowns?
16. James Conner
The Cardinals also had a sort of running back-by-committee deal going in 2023. By the end of the season, six backs had carried the ball, plus they have Kyler Murray remember. Murray averaged 5.5 yards when he ran the ball in 2023. The Cardinals have signed three offensive linemen so far during the free agency period. And Marquise Brown is the only player on their 2023 offense to leave. They seem to be preparing to draft Marvin Harrison Jr. In the first round of the draft.
So, Conner may not get as many opportunities to carry the ball as some, but he averages 4.9 yards per touch throughout his seven-year career. And, after scoring nine touchdowns in 2023 he ended the season with 201.5 fantasy points! If the Cardinals’ offense is as explosive as it promises to be he could improve on that total in 2024.
17. Kenneth Walker III
Walker III is one of the most fun players to watch, and that’s not something you can say about all the Seahawks! Normally replacing a head coach would signal a change in approach, especially when the original coach is as old school as Pete Carroll. But the Seahawks have replaced one former defensive back with another defensive back specialist. Mike MacDonald didn’t play football in college as Carroll did, but he did coach the Bulldogs safeties while he studied for his master’s degree. Young MacDonald, he’s only 36, arrives in the Pacific Northwest after two years as the Ravens defensive coordinator. So he’s unlikely to employ the Air Raid offense straight off the bat.
The Seahawks have rebuilt their offensive line somewhat in free agency with three new faces arriving to replace Damien Lewis, Evan Brown, and Jake Curhan. They have also signed Pharoah Brown who was an excellent blocking tight end on a terrible Patriots offense in 2023. If Walker can avoid the injury bug that has plagued him in his first two seasons in the league he will improve on his 199.4 fantasy points from a year ago.
18. Aaron Jones
Jones is now a Viking, which certainly spices up their two games against the Packers. But, due to a major lack of cap space, they only acquired three other offensive players. And one of them is Sam Darnold, which suggests they’re looking for a starting QB in the draft. It also hints toward a change of heart from Kevin O’Connell. Former quarterbacks don’t often go for a run first and rely on the defense game plan, but that seems to be how this Vikings team is set up. They’ve even bought in eight new defenders.
The Vikings currently have five people in their running back room (and a fullback) and that’s quite a lot. Kene Nwangwu is mainly a kick returner, but four is still quite a lot. Jones is the stand-out back and how they split his time with Ty Chandler will be interesting. But if the Vikings pull off something special at the draft Jones should have plenty of chances to impress. Especially if they trade Justin Jefferson at the draft, that would make Jones and TJ Hockenson the most important people on their offense. If that happens he will definitely improve on his 134.9 fantasy points, he’ll have to stay healthy though.
19. D’Andre Swift
Swift also moved in the offseason, he’s back in the NFC North with da Bears. And they have a slightly rebuilt offensive line heading into 2024. But they will also have a rookie quarterback who appears to be shouldering the hopes and dreams of the entire city before he’s even landed there. Chris Simms actually said Caleb Williams could be the Chicago Bears version of Michael Jordan. Can’t wait for Matt Eberflus to win 6 Super Bowl rings, can you?
Swift (like the entire Eagles’ offense) had an odd 2023 season. He racked up 308 yards in the first three games of the season, but only 741 in the next 14 games. He should be sharing the carries with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson this season. But you don’t pay someone $24 million over three years if they’re not going to be the main man. He ended the 2023 season with 199.3 fantasy points, He only scored six touchdowns on an inconsistent Eagles offense, he’ll definitely improve on that in 2024.
20. David Montgomery
Another NFC North running back, but this one is from the reigning champions. And the team who scored more rushing touchdowns than any other in the league! Montgomery figures to see slightly less usage in 2024 if Jahmyr Gibbs can stay healthy. But they will still be a dominant pair. The new addition to the Lions offensive line, Kevin Zeitler is more known for his pass blocking than his run blocking. But run blocking is more about the unit than the individual and as a unit, they functioned almost perfectly last year.
Only four players scored more rushing touchdowns than Montgomery in 2023 and he ranked 17th for fantasy points. Barring any injuries to the Lions’ important players Montgomery should have a similar season in 2024.
22. Tony Pollard
Pollard didn’t really work out as Ezekiel Elliott’s replacement in Dallas. And that’s not a surprise because they don’t have similar skill sets. But now he’s in Tennessee and it looks like he’ll be given a similar role. And that does seem a little strange, while the Titans have signed two new offensive linemen and are favorites to draft Joe Alt the Cowboys had a very good offensive line in 2023 and Pollard only scored six rushing touchdowns.
The Titans have also signed Calvin Ridley to pair with Deandre Hopkins, so they might be looking for a more pass-based offense with no Derrick Henry. And that would be a positive for Pollard. He caught 82.1% of his targets in 2023 and recorded 311 receiving yards. With Will Levis under center new head coach Brian Callahan could develop a very dynamic offense. The key for Pollard will be how many carries Tyjae Spears vultures.
23. James Cook
The Bills running game is essentially Josh Allen. Sure Cook had 237 carries to Allen’s 111, but Allen scored 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023 and Allen scored 15! It’s frankly impossible to know how (or if) that will change in 2024.
Two receivers have left in free agency and they have been replaced by two new faces. But Mitch Morse left and they haven’t signed any new linemen. Presumably, they will load up on offensive linemen in the draft. Joe Brady is the offensive coordinator permanently now. And that shouldn’t exactly fill the Bills Mafia with glee. His last full-time role as offensive coordinator was in Carolina between 2020-21 when the Panthers went 5-11 and 5-12. Cook is a very talented back though, he ended 2023 with 1,567 yards from scrimmage. And the Bills’ only real competition in the AFC East will come from Miami who they beat twice last season. If Allen shares out the touchdowns a bit more in 2024 Cook may even improve on his 232.7 fantasy points from 2023.
24. Alvin Kamara
The Saints under Dennis Allen were a bit of a shambles in 2022, but they decided to double down and bring Derek Carr to the party in 2023. And that only helped a little bit. They improved from 7-10 to 9-8, so Allen and Carr have won 12 games in their two seasons together (not great Bob). But the Saints have canned offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and replaced him with Klint Kubiak who was the 49ers passing game coordinator last year. Kamara saw 86 targets in 2023 so he’ll be happy to see Kubiak calling the plays.
Kamara had his issues in 2023, he was suspended for the first three games of the season after some “issues” in a strip club. On the subject of regretful decisions, Carr’s contract has handcuffed the Saints when it comes to spending any more money. They need to restructure some deals to sign their draft picks! So they’ve only added two wide receivers and an offensive tackle in free agency. Not exactly giving Kubiak many weapons to use then. Kamara averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game in 2023 even with a quarterback who complained that some of the Saints players didn’t want to win as much as they should. He only scored six touchdowns though, so there’s definitely room for improvement.
Main Photo: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
