The early stages of free agency saw a few moves that affected the running back rankings. And not all those involved running backs moving to new teams. Some teams upgraded their offensive lines and others signed new wide receivers who can help in the run game.
Still Too Early Running Back Rankings – Part 1
1. Derrick Henry
Only four running backs scored more rushing touchdowns than Henry in 2023. And that was when he was playing behind a that was graded a D- by The Tennessean! The Ravens have lost two of their offensive guards in free agency. And right tackle Morgan Moses was traded back to the Jets after spending two years in Baltimore. But the Ravens still figure to have a better offensive line in 2024 than the Titans did in 2023.
It’s widely expected they’ll draft an offensive tackle in the first round, with Tyler Guyton from Oklahoma or Todd Monken’s old buddy Amarius Mimms popular choices. Even behind a rebuilt offensive line a powerful running back like Henry is poised to score even more touchdowns. Especially if the Ravens want to avoid Lamar running too much.
2. Breece Hall
Tyron Smith has arrived in New York to replace Mekhi Becton and that is good news for everyone. All he has to do is avoid the turf monster at MetLife. Assuming he can do that (and he hasn’t started a full season since 2017) Hall and whoever is throwing the passes for Gang Green can sleep easy.
Hall ended 2023 with 994 rushing yards, but he added 591 receiving yards. So, he wound up averaging 5.3 yards per touch as he racked up 1,585 total yards from scrimmage. And, since he was recovering from his own turf monster-related injury, Hall didn’t play more than 49% of the Jets’ offensive snaps until Week 5! If he can avoid the injury bug in 2024, he’s going to go off. In an offense with a “number 1” receiver who is easily injured the running back position is going to be crucial to the Jets’ season.
3. Saquon Barkley
Barkley is another running back who has battled injuries during his career. He’s only played an entire regular season once in his six years in the league. So, the Eagles will have to be very careful how they use him. The Eagles’ season ended with a whimper in 2023, partly because their weapons on offense were exhausted by about Week 13.
Barkley has scored 20 touchdowns in his last two seasons and that was on very inconsistent offense. Last year he had to deal with three different starting quarterbacks! It’ll be interesting to see how the Eagles’ new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore shares out the carries. But Barkley figures to be the main red zone back and that’ll make for plenty of fantasy points.
4. Travis Etienne
He was the number one running back on the way to0 early rankings before the Jaguars were left in the dust during free agency. And it’s going to take a pretty spectacular draft to launch Etienne back up the rankings. Trent Baalke and drafts don’t tend to mix well either, he’ll take a overrated pass rusher with his first pick and probably wait until the sixth round to fill an actual need.
Etienne’s only real hope of leading the fantasy scoring is if Trevor Lawrence is injured and “captain check-down” Mac Jones takes over. But it’s going to take more than a new center to fix that offensive line. Draft Kingsley Suamataia though and Etienne might be in business.
5. Christian McCaffrey
The 49ers seem to be obsessed with their defensive line in free agency. And that’s fine, but it’s not providing what they lacked in 2023, a varied offense. They have signed three new defensive linemen and Leonard Floyd, but the only new faces on the offense are Josh Dobbs and offensive tackle Brandon Parker.
That doesn’t make CMC any less effective, but it does mean defenses know exactly what the 49ers are going to do on offense. Exactly the same as they did last season. And that makes life slightly more difficult for the running back.
6. Jonathan Taylor
Joe Flacco is the Colts’ only addition so far in free agency and that’s sort of a plus, mostly because he isn’t Gardner Minshew. Taylor’s fantasy season depends on the health of Anthony Richardson. If defenses have to consider the prospect of a 22-year-old, 224 lb. Quarterback keeping the ball and taking off Taylor will have more room to move.
But if defenses know Taylor is the main running threat because there’s a 6 feet 6 inches 39-year-old handing the ball off the running back will have a few more defenders to deal with. Flacco did run the ball on occasion last year but his 12 attempts only went for 15 yards. Richardson averaged 5.4 yards per attempt when he ran the ball! So, Taylor will either be his usual level of “very good” or “exceptionally good” if Richardson plays most of the games.
7. Kyren Williams
Williams played just 12 games in the 2023 regular season, but he was still third in terms of rushing yards. Only Henry and McCaffrey rushed for more yards and they played 17 and 16 games respectively. His 95.3 rushing yards per game led the league. And the Rams have signed guard, Jonah Jackson from the Lions (the fifth-best rushing offense in 2023) and tight end Colby Parkinson. 6 feet 7 inch Parkinson played 497 snaps for the Seahawks in 2023 and saw just 34 targets, it’s safe to say he’s a blocking tight end.
And with at least one mock draft projecting a new offensive tackle will arrive in Los Angeles after the first round of the draft Sean McVay’s offense could be even more dynamic in 2024.
8. Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco might run like a cartoon character, but he’s impossible to stop. Kansas City hasn’t been very busy so far in free agency, but they have signed Irv Smith Jr. And Marquise Brown which gives Andy Reid some fun new weapons. And Sports Illustrated reports that Pro Football Network has mocked Troy Fautanu in the first round. There are a few questions about Fautanu’s run blocking, but he can get to the second level to block linebackers. And the Ravens and Cowboys are both believed to be interested, so his run blocking can’t be that bad.
Pacheco wasn’t a regular feature in the passing game last year, but with Jerrick McKinnon is currently a free agent. Pacheco should be used on more passing downs even if McKinnon stays in KC. He caught 89.8% of his targets in 2023 and averaged 4.98 yards per target.
9. Bijan Robinson
Kirk Cousins is a definite upgrade on the Falcons 2023 quarterback options (unless they’re playing in prime time). And with three new receivers arriving in free agency along with a new coaching team, Robinson should flourish in his second year.
Robinson averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game as a rookie on a clunky offense. If everything goes to plan for Zac Robinson, the Falcons offense should have a Sean McVay-esque dynamic offense in 2024. Robinson was the Rams QB coach and passing coordinator in 2023 when the Rams threw 69 passes to the running back position. So, Robinson should get plenty of chances to demonstrate his talent in open space.
10. Joe Mixon
Mixon scored 12 touchdowns and racked up 1,410 yards from the line of scrimmage in 2023. And that was on a Bengals offense that used two different quarterbacks and saw 12 different players hit the injured reserve list at one time or another. Obviously, injuries are completely random occurrences, but it seems unlikely his new team will have that many.
Mixon is a Texan now and he should be the final piece of their puzzle. Dameon Pierce fell out of favor late in 2023. But Devin Singletary never really lived up to the billing. Singletary’s 4.4 yards per touch was the lowest of his career. The Texans averaged 3.4 yards per carry in 2023 and that ranked them 29th in the league. Their 10 rushing touchdowns saw them ranked 23rd though. Mixon may have to share running back duties with Pierce, but last season the Bengals used four different backs to run the ball.
11. Josh Jacobs
Jacobs has moved from the Nevada desert to the “frozen tundra” of Lambeau. And it’s an interesting move, Antonio Pierce was full of praise and the Raiders seemed set to kick it old school and try to run their way to the AFC South, but Matt LaFleur likes to pass a bit more. So, Jacobs’s usage might go down, but if they can keep him fresher for longer, he could improve on the 181.1 fantasy points he scored in 2023. He will share the running back duties with AJ Dillon, but defenses will fatigue easily when they have to tackle those two.
12. Jahmyr Gibbs
Another running back who will split the running duties in Gibbs. He began 2023 as David Montgomery’s glamourous assistant, the lightning to his thunder. But by the end of the regular seasons and during their playoff run Gibbs became more of a staple. Gibbs only carried 39 times in the first six games of the season. In the last six games, he carried 73 times! He also scored six touchdowns in the last six games, having only scored five touchdowns in the first 12 games.
The Lions have only added two players to their offense in free agency but both Kevin Zeitler and Donovan Peoples-Jones can run block. If Gibbs starts the 2024 season the way he ended his 2023 he will improve on the 242.1 fantasy points he scored last season.
Main Photo: Sam Greene-USA TODAY NETWORK
