There is no better spot to be in fantasy football than catching footballs from Patrick Mahomes. Despite the struggles from past Mahomes pass catchers, fantasy managers always have their eyes on what the Kansas City Chiefs do at wide receiver. What will Marquise Brown dynasty outlook look like now that he has landed in Kansas City?
Marquise Brown Dynasty Outlook
The History
Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown was drafted in the first round, 25th overall in the 2019 NFL draft by the Baltimore Ravens. Despite being an undersized wide receiver at 5’9 and 180 lbs, he has excelled in the NFL winning with his game-breaking speed. Brown ran a 4.32 40-yard dash, which is among the 99th percentile.
Brown has only gone for 1000 yards once in his career. Over 700 yards three times. And 50 or more receptions in four seasons, but only 75 or more receptions once. It’s truly been a mixed bag for Brown. He has only been a top-24 wide receiver in points per game for fantasy in one season. A season where he saw 145 targets, 91 receptions, 1008 yards, and six touchdowns. All career highs except the touchdowns.
After his career year in 2021 with the Ravens, he was dealt to the Arizona Cardinals for the 23rd pick in the 2022 draft. Reunited with his college quarterback Kyler Murray, excitement mounted for Brown fantasy managers. He saw back-to-back 100 target seasons but managed only 13 and 9.6 fantasy points per game across two seasons with the Cardinals. The 13 points were good for WR27, and the 9.6 was good for WR49. After two seasons in Arizona, the Cardinals were open to letting him test free agency this off-season. As their eyes are set on Marvin Harrison Jr plus some of their young wide-receiving assets.
The Situation
Marquise Brown signed with the Kansas City Chiefs on a one-year deal. On paper, a great opportunity. Here we go again fantasy managers, you likely heard this story when he was drafted by the Ravens and when he was traded to the Cardinals. He will compete with Rashee Rice to be Patrick Mahomes WR1. The only other true target competition, at this point, is tight end Travis Kelce.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for over 580 pass attempts and 4000 or more yards in five out of the last six seasons. Both those marks are top ten in the NFL each season. In most seasons, the top five. Last season, for example, his 597 pass attempts were third among quarterbacks and 4184 passing yards were sixth among quarterbacks. It is no wonder wide receivers drafted or signed by the Chiefs garner so much attention.
However, worth noting in his career, Mahomes has only sustained one 100+ target receiver in each season except in 2020 where he had none. Perhaps this is the Travis Kelce factor. Maybe it is the fact he hasn’t had two sustainable top wide receivers to use. But this is worth consideration when thinking about Rice and Brown together.
Despite the impactful speed and opportunity, the knock on Brown is his durability which has driven down his fantasy value. He has had several sprains, strains, and fractures affecting almost every part of his leg. From his foot up to his hamstring. This has caused him to miss games in three out of five seasons.
Current Price
Per KeepTradeCut, Marquise Brown is currently the WR34. He is currently enjoying major growth climbing 43 spots over the last 30 days, thanks to becoming a Patrick Mahomes target. This currently puts him in the range of Deshaun Watson, D’Andre Swift, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, and Travis Kelce. From a rookie pick perspective, Brown is worth a late future 1st or early 2024 2nd round pick.
Marquise Brown Dynasty Outlook
Minus his 2021 season, Brown has unfortunately not lived up to the first-round draft selection expectations. Fantasy managers have been left frustrated, whether injuries or inconsistent play. Does Brown signing with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball change Marquise Brown’s dynasty outlook?
Rebuilding
I can’t imagine Brown getting a better landing spot again in his career. As noted with his major growth in value on KeepTradeCut, a rebuilding manager needs to offload Brown and get a return now. The injuries aren’t going to go away. I can’t picture the inconsistent play going away. If you can get a future first-rounder or a young asset to further your rebuild with them you are golden. If you drop a couple tiers names like Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Mims, Luke Musgrave, and Jalin Hyatt jump out at me. Plus adding in a pick swap where you improve your positioning in a rookie draft in the current or future year and you are setting yourself up nicely.
Middle of the Pack
The middle of the pack is interesting for considering Brown as a buy or sell. My sentiment stands as above, he could have a very good season this season and earn himself a payday. If so, we have seen the Chiefs’ track record for paying wide receivers. He likely doesn’t return. So if your team is close to contending, Brown could be a helper if he finds his stride in KC. If you have a good setup with two or three receivers you can really trust, adding him as your fourth or flex option for a second-rounder, then you are good. You could even move a player, but it just can’t be a piece that is too important. In his value range, names I would consider moving for him include Christian Kirk, David Montgomery, or Terry McLaurin.
If you are a low-end middle-of-the-pack team, I would avoid Brown. He doesn’t present the upside in my eyes to improve your team now or in the future to a level that pushes the needle. The upside and risk present in Brown doesn’t balance out for me to bring him onto my team.
Contenders
Contenders can always consider buying players like Marquise Brown. You can accept the risk if things don’t pan out in KC because he is a flex play for you. If things pan out, he gets paid and leaves his premium opportunity in KC after one season to a lesser situation, he may still not have been considered an every-week starter for you. Easy low-risk move for a contender to line their roster depth. If you got that 1.11 or 1.12 pick in this year’s draft, trade for Brown. You could also entice with a package pairing a 2nd or 3rd-round rookie pick with a young piece that isn’t furthering your being a contender but may intrigue others. Names that jump out a few tiers back are Kendre Miller, Zamir White, Jahan Dotson, and Quentin Johnston. The goal is to extend your dominance at the top of the standings.
Main Photo: Joe Rondone/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK
