When you think of the most consistent fantasy options of the last ten seasons, who do you think of? I hope one of the players at the top of your list is Mike Evans. What does a fresh contract mean for Mike Evans dynasty outlook?
Mike Evans earned himself a fresh two-year contract extension to return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for an 11th season. The contract is worth a base salary of $41 million over two seasons with $29 million guaranteed. While the Buccaneers work through their quarterback situation, what can we expect from Mike Evans as fantasy managers?
Mike Evans Dynasty Outlook
The History
Mike Evans was drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seventh overall in the 2014 NFL Draft. He was noted by Nolan Nawrocki as being “a big, physical, strong-handed receiver with playmaking ability”. Evans has certainly been every bit of those things and more as he has navigated an, at times rocky, situation in Tampa Bay.
Through ten seasons and 154 games, Evans has 762 receptions, 11,680 receiving yards, and 94 touchdowns. He is well on his way to making a case to be enshrined in Canton. What stands out beyond his stat line? Evans is averaging a new quarterback and new offensive coordinator every two seasons. He has caught passes from six different starting quarterbacks. This while being a part of five different offensive coordinator schemes.
He has played in at least 13 games in all ten seasons, which is a rare track record of health in the NFL today, let alone for wide receivers of his size and usage. This has also helped fantasy managers enjoy a production of over 1,000 yards and over 65 receptions in all ten of those seasons. That, paired with at least eight touchdowns in seven of those seasons. He has only finished outside the top 24 wide receivers in per-game fantasy points in one season. With five seasons finishing as a top 12 wide receiver.
The Situation
The only question mark that loomed large over Mike Evans’s situation was if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would lock down their quarterback situation. Contract negotiations are done and Baker Mayfield, who had a career year last season in Tampa, will spin the ball for the Bucs and Mike Evans for up to three more seasons. Mayfield signed a one-year prove-it deal with the Buccaneers last season and certainly proved himself. He ended up throwing for over 4,000 yards, leading the Bucs to an NFC South division title and a close loss to the Detroit Lions in the divisional round.
The best case scenario is to get some continuity, not that that has impacted Evans’s fantasy outlook in the past. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales is departing for the Carolina Panthers head coaching job. Thankfully, bringing back Mayfield is a welcome return for Evans’s fantasy managers. After all, he was the arm responsible for helping Evans lead the NFL in air yards last season with 1,906 and finish second in touchdowns among wide receivers with 13.
Ultimately, we have watched Evans catch passes in almost all situations imaginable, good and bad. From Hall of Famers like Tom Brady and journeymen like Ryan Fitzpatrick to perennial backups with questionable vision like Jameis Winston. And, we can’t avoid the age-old question of, you know, age. He is beginning his late career journey on the wrong side of 30. Anything can happen at this stage in a career.
Current Price
As always, we will take a look at Mike Evans’s current value via KeepTradeCut. All information is crowd-sourced thanks to fantasy managers’ opinions. Mike Evans is currently the WR32 per dynasty rankings. He is in a tier with other aging wide receivers like Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs. As far as other positional players go in his range we see Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Javonte Williams, and George Kittle. If you are looking for comparable rookie pick compensation, he is in the future years, 2025 and 2026, late 1st or 2024 early 2nd rounder conversation.
Fantasy 101 teaching moment. Later-year rookie picks are felt by most managers to be “less valuable” and expendable than current-year picks where you can put names to pick numbers. For those curious about the discrepancy in later years versus current year rookie pick value.
Mike Evans Dynasty Outlook
We now have a general idea of what Mike Evans’s value is. It is time to consider what to do with Evans depending on your team’s situation in fantasy. What can you do to maximize Mike Evans’s dynasty outlook?
Rebuilding
Mike Evans has reached the point where as a rebuilding roster it is time to move on, if you haven’t already. Evans has likely been great to you. However, if you are in a position of still considering a rebuild, there are further needs to address and Evans is a valuable piece to sell. If a team is willing to move a first, it’s an easy sell. If you are looking to make a more strategic move, I’d check out some younger wide receivers a couple of tiers down to pivot to. Names like Romeo Doubs, Jameson Williams, and Marvin Mims, paired with a pick swap like adding a second for Evans and a third makes sense.
Middle of the Pack
If you are a higher-end middle-of-the-pack team, just a couple of pieces away from pushing to a contender, Mike Evans is an option to consider buying. However, Evans’ window may be short-lived. So, there are better options out there to set your team up to become a contender for years to come. If you are in the middle of the pack, but declining, Evans is definitely not the option to go with. This build requires a re-tooling or re-building mindset as the existing roster won’t ascend and find success. He is more of a sell for middle-of-the-pack managers.
Contenders
If you are a contender and can get Mike Evans for your late 2nd and potentially throw in a lesser-valued player on your roster, that would be the perfect move. When we look at three or four tiers below Evans, names we see include: Jaylen Warren, Jahan Dotson, Josh Downs, and Isaiah Likely. None of those names or the shot you take with your late second will take your contender ship to the next level like landing Mike Evans. Even if it is just for a couple of seasons. Evans remains a favorite buy of mine as a contender.
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