Wildcard weekend was surprising in that the Green Bay Packers were able to upset the Dallas Cowboys. Ahead is a much tougher task.
Keys to the Packers Beating the 49ers
San Francisco rolls into this contest with plenty of rest for their starters. In Week 18, head coach Kyle Shannahan opted to rest some of his key players since the 49ers already had the top seed in the NFC wrapped up. We’ve seen this approach go both ways for top-seeded teams.
Coming to mind are teams like the Baltimore Ravens in years past where they came into the playoffs hot but looked rusty after resting starters. In other instances, teams like the Kansas City Chiefs have not skipped a beat after sitting their top players in the season’s final week. Given the experience the 49ers have with the big stage, it’s more likely that they look fresh, and not frazzled.
Green Bay is riding high after dominating the Dallas Cowboys in the wildcard round. This type of spark cannot be underestimated, especially given how the team dominated Dallas. If the Packers are going to pull off the upset, it begins with setting the tempo early. Winning the coin toss would be big, but the Packers defense has played significantly better as of late, so an early stop by Joe Barry’s unit could help set the tone.
Win Time of Possession Battle
By letting the 49ers start hot and score on their opening drive, Green Bay can quickly find themselves behind. Winning the time of possession battle is always important, but against the 49ers it is one of the keys to victory for Green Bay. Not allowing San Francisco’s offense to get comfortable and find the rhythm that has made them so dangerous throughout the season has proven to be fatal for the 49ers. Not accustomed to having to mount comebacks, in three of their five losses this season, San Francisco was unable to overcome a 10+ point deficit (Minnesota, Cincinnati, Baltimore).
A hot start from Green Bay’s offense was huge in helping them maintain a lead over Dallas and force the Cowboys to press the ball downfield, which led to three interceptions by the defense. The 49ers are more equipped to distribute the ball to different players than the Cowboys were, but taking away Christian McCaffrey as a workhorse back could be big for Green Bay.
Don’t Die by a Thousand Paper Cuts
Speaking of McCaffrey, the star running back led the NFL in rushing yards and is a machine when it comes to producing through the air and on the ground. While his skillset allows him to be an asset in the run game, McCaffrey as an everydown back is as dangerous as they come. There are plenty of weapons for the Packers to defend, but it starts with slowing down McCaffrey.
In all but four games that he played this season, McCaffrey earned 100 or more all-purpose yards (per ESPN stats). He has scored 21 overall touchdowns and been the engine that has kept the 49ers offense rolling. When San Francisco has struggled, McCaffrey’s numbers have been at their lowest. Green Bay has speed at linebacker, which means Quay Walker becomes one of their most valuable assets in this game.
Find Holes in the Defense
For Green Bay, this game will be largely decided by the effectiveness of their offense. San Francisco has fielded the league’s third-best scoring defense (per ESPN stats). The 49ers speed at linebacker and depth along the defensive line have been big reasons for their success. Teams have found it difficult to run on the 49ers, but there are opportunities for Green Bay to exploit their pass defense. San Francisco fields a middle-of-the-pack passing defense, which means the Packers can use their greatest strength to keep pace with them if it turns into a shootout.
Keeping San Francisco on their toes and stressing the defense can be done, especially if Green Bay plays with the same sort of fire they did against Dallas. Chunk plays, especially, are one of the keys to the Packers beating the 49ers.
Main Photo Credit: Syndication: The Post-Crescent
