The Bills only allow 31.3 DraftKings DFS points per game to wide receivers, but the Chiefs allow just 27.9! The Chiefs averaged just 19.9 points per game to running backs, the 11th-lowest average in the league. That will affect the Bills’ game plan.
For their part the Bills have defended tight ends very well, so Kelce will have to work for his catches, but that may allow the slot receivers some freedom. Calvin Austin III and Diontae Johnson had success last week and the Steelers offense isn’t as productive as Kansas City’s.
DraftKings DFS Bargains For The Divisional Round Kansas City At Buffalo
The Redemption DraftKings DFS Pick – Kadarius Toney
Maybe it’s my romantic side talking, but this game has strong “redemption game” vibes. Toney’s offside penalty is the reason the Chiefs have to play Mahomes’ first road game in the playoffs. Toney has only played one game since the teams’ last meeting in Week 14. That’s why he only costs $800 in this week’s DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown slate.
Toney hasn’t exactly had a stellar season; he’s dropped a couple of crucial passes to go with the costly penalty. He’s caught 71.1% of his targets though but he only averages 5.3 yards per touch.
If he plays this week Toney figures to line up opposite Dane Jackson (or Rasul Douglas, but he’s been out since Week 17 himself). Jackson has allowed 76.7% of passes to be completed and on average they’re going for 13.2 yards when they are completed. Douglas on the other hand has only allowed 51.4% to be completed, if he’s healthy the Bills have a much better chance of winning the game.
The Old Faithful Pick – Dawson Knox
He caught a touchdown pass last week and his experience will be invaluable for the Bills offense. Knox has caught six scoring passes in his nine playoff games, and he averages 10 yards per catch. The Chiefs allowed 9.3 yards per catch to the tight end position during the regular season.
The last time these teams played Know caught all three of his targets and averaged 12 yards per catch. He’s only $3,400 on the DraftKings Captains Showdown slate this week because he’s below Dalton Kincaid on the depth chart. But Kincaid only caught five of eight targets the last time the Bills and Chiefs played.
The Speedster DraftKings DFS Pick – Justin Watson
Watson is averaging 17 yards per touch, and he’s caught three touchdowns, more than he’s managed in any other season. Last week he caught both his targets for 20 yards. And when these teams played in Week 14, he caught just one pass, but it went for 18 yards. Since then, he’s seen 15 targets and caught eight of them for 130 yards. He also scored a seasonal touchdown on Christmas Day.
This week he should line up opposite Kair Elam (although Christian Benford hasn’t been ruled out yet). Elam is allowing 71.4% of passes thrown his way to be completed. And they’re going for 13.9 yards per pop! Watson costs just $4,400 on this DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown slate. And if the Chiefs can protect Patrick Mahomes, he could rack up some yards.
The Even Older, Faithful DraftKings DFS Pick – Latavius Murray
Pass-catching running backs have given KC issues and Murray is catching 77.3% of his targets. He caught both of his targets against the Steelers while Ty Johnson failed to haul in either of his targets. Running backs caught four touchdown passes against the Chiefs during the regular season. And even last week a very “eeew” Dolphins’ offense managed to complete five passes to their running backs.
James Cook will obviously get the most work. But with Chris Jones in the Chiefs defense, it should be a case of many hands making light work. And with Leonard Fournette being released (although they could still re-sign him before Sunday) Murray figures to catch more passes than Johnson will. Murray is only $2,800 in this week’s DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown.
The Maybe, Just Maybe Pick – Mecole Hardman
There’s no guarantee Hardman plays this week with Skyy Moore designated to return from IR on the 17th of January he may come straight back into the lineup. But Hardman has caught 12 of 16 targets in his career against Buffalo. And he’s racked up 118 yards and a touchdown. He’s also recorded 33 rushing yards against the Bills.
If Hardman does play, he should line up opposite Cam Lewis. Lewis is allowing 66.7% of passes to be completed. And he’s conceded an average of 10.7 yards per catch. Hardman’s speed could give Lewis real problems. Hardman only costs $1,200 on this DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown slate, only two receivers are cheaper (and one of them is Kadarius Toney).
Main Image: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
