After toppling the Chicago Bears, the Green Bay Packers draw a tough matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. After winning the NFC East, the Cowboys will maintain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs unless they square off against the San Francisco 49ers. Green Bay will have to play every game on the road as a wildcard team.
The Dallas Cowboys have dominated teams by playing smothering defense and feeding their star receiver, CeeDee Lamb. With an MVP-caliber quarterback in Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have become a benchmark for success in the NFL. Even after parting ways with Ezekiel Elliot before the season, Dallas has established a strong rushing attack behind Tony Pollard. But it is the Cowboys ability to be balanced that has helped them produce a top-five offense in the NFL.
Three Keys to Green Bay Defeating the Dallas Cowboys
Stifle The Stars
Getting down to what the Cowboys do well starts with feeding Lamb. After falling to Dallas in the 2020 NFL draft, Lamb got off to a hot start as a Cowboy but truly exploded in 2023. Coming off three consecutive seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards, Lamb recorded 1,749 yards in 2023 and scored 12 touchdowns. Both his yardage and touchdown totals are career highs. The numbers behind Lamb’s breakout season are reflected in his target share as well. Of Prescott’s 410 passing attempts, he looked Lamb’s way 181 times (per ESPN stats). Prescott also favored tight end Jake Ferguson, but Lamb outpaced the next closest wide receiver (Brandin Cooks) by 100 targets. This trend illustrates just how important Lamb is to this Cowboys offense.
In the past, Green Bay has matched up against some of the league’s best receivers. Twice a year, they are tasked with containing Justin Jefferson. Most recently, the Packers defense had to keep DJ Moore in check when they played the Chicago Bears. Looking at how the Packers handled those two receivers could tell us a lot about how they will approach this tilt with the Cowboys.
Containing Lamb comes down to shadowing him with their top cornerback, Jaire Alexander. In their win over Chicago, it looked like Green Bay was going to let Moore feast on zone coverage. But midway through the second quarter, they changed up their coverage to play more man. Moore was less effective after this adjustment, which means Green Bay could replicate this approach against Dallas.
Limit Chunk Plays
Beyond containing Lamb, the Packers cannot allow Ferguson to be the reason Dallas continues to move the chains. More than half of Ferguson’s receptions on the season have gone for first downs, and he has received an average depth of target of 9 or more yards in nine games this year (per Pro-Football-reference). This means players like Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie become incredibly valuable as linebackers in coverage. Walker acted as a neutralizer against Chicago when it came to defending Justin Fields on scrambles, and his speed will be put to the test against Ferguson in the open field.
Containing both Lamb and Ferguson is one key to slowing down this Cowboys offense. Forcing Prescott to lean on Pollard and distribute the ball to his second and third receivers should allow Green Bay’s defense to get off the field faster. Less time of possession for Dallas should spell more opportunities for the Packers offense to put together scoring drives.
Keep Love Clean
Since getting hot in November, the Packers offense has played much better. They have shown many times the ability to march down the field and score, even at crucial moments. Jordan Love has displayed remarkable pocket poise and prevented sacks with his ability to move within a collapsing pocket. Love’s receivers have then been able to find holes in coverage and bust loose for big gains. While it has looked easy at times for Green Bay’s offense over the last two months, this Cowboys defense will pose a new challenge.
Micah Parsons quickly established himself as one of the league’s elite pass rushers. In 2023, he recorded a career-high 14 sacks (per ESPN stats). But it goes beyond the sacks. Parsons is a menace off the edge and on a short list of pass rushers in the NFL who consistently apply pressure on the quarterback. He can single-handedly wreck a game. Without slowing him down, the Packers offense could be in trouble. But as of late, Green Bay’s offensive line has played better. Since surrendering four sacks to the Los Angeles Rams, the Packers line has only given up 12 in their previous nine contests.
The line (according to pro-football-reference) has given up 11 of their 30 total sacks when the offense is facing 3rd & 7 or longer to go. This means the running game for Green Bay becomes imperative.
With Aaron Jones healthy, the Packers offense is different. Jones gives them not only a slasher who can bust loose for a big gain but also another weapon in the passing game. His presence alone helps tilt the scales and gives the Packers offense a legitimate shot to hang with Dallas.
All of this goes without mentioning the revenge factor that is in play for Green Bay and their old coach, Mike McCarthy. With the makings of a high-scoring affair, Green Bay needs to be at its best if they are going to defeat the Dallas Cowboys.
Main Photo: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY NETWORK
