The New England Patriots snapped a 15-game winning streak against the New York Jets on Sunday, a fitting end to their 2023 season. Rumblings about an overhaul of the coaching staff have been brewing for quite some time. It’s now being reported that owner Robert Kraft will meet with head coach Bill Belichick to discuss his future sometime this week, and it could be a series of meetings. With a change in coaching staff, there’s usually a significant change to the roster as well.
Four Patriots Free Agents the Patriots Should Fight to Bring Back for 2024
The Patriots have 16 players slated to become free agents this offseason, according to Over The Cap. After finishing the season with a 4-13 record, they faced a clear talent disadvantage in nearly every game they played. The team needs to address some glaring issues in the offseason, many of which are on the offensive side. With all that being said, a few of those 16 players getting ready to hit the open market have played well enough to warrant the Patriots trying to keep them around – at the right price.
Ezekiel Elliott – RB
When the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott as a free agent this offseason, there were many who wondered about his fit in the New England culture that Bill Belichick has built. Since then, he seems to have won over the entire fanbase and has done so by being a consummate Patriot. From the effort and grittiness he shows on the field, to the team-first answers he gave in every interview, Elliott handled himself with class.
Zeke on his future: Eyeing gold jacket and a championship (later saying he’s open to a return to New England). pic.twitter.com/dRtKHTUksA
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) January 7, 2024
Despite finishing the year with a career-low in yards per attempt on the ground, Elliott – who had his most receptions since the 2020 season – was taking on a different role with the Patriots. Often a feature of the passing game, it was a much different style than we had become accustomed to seeing from his time with the Dallas Cowboys. An injury to Rhamondre Stevenson made Elliott the feature back for the last five games of the season, where he averaged three yards a carry. Through that span, he was only able to muster up one rushing touchdown but reached the endzone twice through the air.
The tandem of Stevenson and Elliott was the best part of a bleak 2023 Patriots offense. The team should be looking to keep them together and allow Elliott to be a veteran presence for a potential rookie quarterback coming in. If they can get him back on a deal similar to his current contract – one-year $3 million – the Patriots will, once again, have one of the top backfields in the league going into 2024.
Kyle Dugger – Safety
Since the 2020 draft, Kyle Dugger has developed into a rock-solid starter for the Patriots. In coverage, Dugger has nine interceptions through the last three seasons and just 6.7 yards per target. He shows his versatility when attacking the quarterback. Through that same stretch, he has 16 tackles for loss and 9 hits on the quarterback. However, he’s also let up nine touchdowns since his rookie season and has allowed a completion percentage of 67.3. Finishing his 2023 campaign with a 61.1 overall PFF grade, there’s certainly still room for him to improve his game.
Spotrac has Dugger’s current market value at $10.9 million with him getting ready to hit the open market. Statistically, he’s very similar to Rayshawn Jenkins of the Jaguars and Grant Delpit of the Browns. Jenkins got a 4-year deal worth just under $9 million a year, while Grant signed this past offseason for 3 years and an average of $12 million a year.
The Patriots defense, as a whole, finished ninth in defensive DVOA and Dugger was a key piece in that. If the Patriots want to have a defense as effective as this year’s, they’re going to want to keep Dugger around. Plus, having the success he’s had so far in New England, there’s always a chance he’s willing to take a little less to stick around.
Michael Onwenu – OT
This season, Onwenu was thrown into the fold due to injury and had initially spent some time at the guard spot. He had his ups and downs on the inside and really struggled to find consistency. Moving to tackle resulted in a massive jump in his play. Since week nine, Onwenu was graded the ninth-best offensive tackle in the entire NFL by PFF.
Mike Onwenu: 79.4 PFF grade since Week 9
He ranks ninth among all offensive tackles over that period
— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) January 3, 2024
The development that Onwenu has shown this season is something not many, if any, saw coming. To go from a backup at the season’s kickoff, to finishing the second half of the season top-ten in the league at the position is extremely rare. Over The Cap has Onwenu’s total value listed at just over $9 million, a seemingly small price to play if he can continue this stretch of play.
Mack Wilson Sr. – LB
Mack Wilson Sr. played extremely well in a versatile role this year on a stout Patriots defense. He took massive strides as a pass rusher this season; setting career highs in sacks (five) and quarterback pressures (10). Although he still has his struggles in coverage – allowing a 98.3 passer rating on 12 targets – Wilson’s new-found pass-rushing success should lead to less time spent in those situations and more time attacking the quarterback.
Wilson would likely be a relatively cheap gadget guy to keep the Patriots defense among the league’s best. Holding onto some depth, while keeping plenty of cap room to bolster the offense in free agency would be an ideal move for the team.
2024 Could Look A Lot Different
Other notable free agents include Matthew Slater, Josh Uche, Trent Brown, Anfernee Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Jalen Mills. Slater has made it known that he will take some time to contemplate his future before making any decisions about returning for another year. Unfortunately for Josh Uche, he followed up his 11.5-sack 2022 campaign with just three sacks in a contract year for the pass rusher. With that much of a fall-off in performance, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots getting into a bidding war with anyone to keep him around.
Recent issues between Trent Brown and the team had boiled over into the Patriots making him stay home the final week of the season with an “illness”; He appeared energetic on Instagram Live at a local gym while the Patriots were practicing on Thursday. After a move like that, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots offering him a contact.
The Patriots project to have the third most salary cap room in the NFL. With more than $72.5 million to work with, according to Spotrac, the Patriots will be able to keep some of their key pieces and have plenty left over to make waves in the open market.
The number one priority for this off-season should be to improve the wide receiving corps. There are a few big-name wideouts getting ready to test the waters of free agency, and the Patriots need to try and make a run at one of them. Whether that be Bengals star Tee Higgins, Buccaneers veteran Mike Evans, or another top-tier wide receiver. There isn’t a true number-one receiver currently on the Patriots roster, but they have the cap room to change that.
Let the Rebuild Begin
With a mix of third overall pick in the draft, free agency, and key players getting healthy with the time off, the Patriots are in a great position to make a quick turnaround. With all the uncertainty surrounding the organization right now regarding its future – both roster and leadership – this is a crucial offseason for the team. There are a few foundational pieces of this Patriots team about to become free agents, and they can’t afford to lose all of their leadership through that and retirement. A few wrong moves can set them back years. A few of the right moves, and they can be next year’s Houston Texans.
Main Image: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
