To some fans, the Washington Commanders find themselves in an unenviable position. The team is 4-12, has lost seven straight games, and is staring down the barrel of another multi-year rebuild. To others, however, the future has never looked brighter. The team currently holds six picks in the top 102, including the #2 overall pick, and the most cap space in the entire NFL this offseason. Washington can clinch a top-3 pick with a Week 18 loss to the rival Cowboys. It hasn’t been easy to be a Commanders fan in recent years, but this weekend might present one of the biggest emotional conflicts of all.
Week 18 Emotional Conflict
The Driver’s Seat
With New England’s win over Denver in Week 16 and Arizona’s comeback win against Philadelphia last week, the Washington Commanders have leapfrogged into the driver’s seat for the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The three teams share the same record but Washington’s lower strength of schedule (.515) gives them a slight advantage over the Patriots (.518) and Cardinals (.562). Washington also has the most difficult Week 18 matchup of the three 4-12 teams. The Patriots host the 6-10 Jets and the Cardinals host the 8-8 Seattle Seahawks, and either team could shoot itself in the foot with a win. Another important nugget: the strength of schedule calculation is a fluid organism. Commanders fans should also be Saints fans this weekend.
What’s At Stake
The second overall pick might be the most important selection in the entire draft. It grants the power of leverage. It provides the flexibility to trade up to #1 at little cost, to trade down for a haul, or to sit tight and select one of the two franchise-altering quarterback prospects available. Until the recent stretch of games, it appeared that the Commanders already had their franchise quarterback in Sam Howell. Over the last seven games, though, Howell produced a 6:10 TD:INT ratio and the team lost all seven games.
USC quarterback Caleb Williams and UNC quarterback Drake Maye have separated themselves as the top signal callers in the 2024 NFL Draft. They are overwhelmingly likely to be the top two selections, regardless of whether another pre-draft trade takes place or not. The Commanders have a wealth of draft capital at their disposal, both in quality and quantity. Washington’s new front office has the rare opportunity to draft their quarterback of the future, surround him with other premium rookies, and fill the remaining voids in free agency. They can’t afford to let it slip away.
The Emotional Conflict
After nearly fumbling away a top-5 pick in Week 16, the Washington Commanders have lucked their way into a position that seemed impossible even one month ago. All they have to do is lose one more game, a task that they’re well-equipped to do. It’s their specialty. Unfortunately, the team’s short-term and long-term goals are diametrically opposed. It is against any sports fan’s nature to want to lose, but it is borderline treasonous to root for a loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Week 18 of last season is proof. After being eliminated from the playoffs, a 7-8-1 Commanders squad dominated the 12-4 Cowboys in Sam Howell’s NFL debut. The Commanders had nothing to gain and the Cowboys had everything to lose. If Dallas had won and Philadelphia lost, the Cowboys would’ve won the NFC East and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Despite the stakes, Washington summoned its own internal motivation and comfortably outplayed Dallas to finish 8-8-1.
This season, both front offices are highly motivated for the opposite result. A Cowboys win would grant them the NFC East title and the NFC’s 2nd seed, while a Cowboys loss and an Eagles win over the Giants would crown the Eagles as division champs. The Commanders would secure the #2 overall pick with a Cowboys win and a Patriots win over the Jets. But if history is any indication, Ron Rivera doesn’t care about draft picks, and neither do the players. Dallas is the enemy. Washington fans face the ultimate emotional conflict in Week 18.
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