It’s impossible to think about Mike McDanels’ Dolphins team without becoming overwhelmed by cliches. Can they “win ugly”? Are they “all style and no substance”? Or are they just “flat track bullies”? Well, this is the week we find out. The Bills are the exact opposite, they win games when they look like they can’t string drives together and they turn the ball over far too early. But they’re one win away from snatching the AFC East title out of the hands of the city slickers from Florida.
Miami has got 7 players on IR and another 9 who didn’t fully participate in Week 17’s practice schedule. They also listed a further 5 players who were dealing with issues last week, but they all played in the thrashing at Baltimore. For their part, the Bills also had 7 players on IR, but they only had 3 players missing from practice last week. 7 other Bills featured on the injury report last week, but they all practiced. If there’s one area of concern for the Bills it will be that 5 of the players on IR are defensive players and A.J. Epenesa, who has been on fire this season, is dealing with a rib problem.
DraftKings DFS Bargains Sunday Night Bills at Dolphins
The Dolphins Key To Success DraftKings DFS Pick – Julian Hill
Way back in Week 3 Hill played on 78% of the Dolphins snaps and they beat the Broncos 70-20. The following week the Dolphins went to Buffalo and Hill only played 15% of the snaps. The Dolphins lost 48-20. Let’s hope someone has told Mike McDaniels. Long story short Hill is a really good run blocker. but when they use him in the passing game, he’s effective too. He’s catching 71.4% of his targets this season. And he averages 9.2 yards per reception. The Bills are going to be expecting the Dolphins wideouts and De’Von Achane to move the chains. But with so many Bills injuries the Dolphins’ tight ends should have the most favorable matchups.
Hill figures to be the fifth most expensive tight end in this DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown game, cheaper than both Bills’ tight ends who only average 7.1 and 5 yards per touch. The Bills are allowing 10.5 DraftKings DFS points to tight ends per game this season.
The Bills’ Nemesis DraftKings DFS Pick – Braxton Berrios
If Jalen Waddle is still dealing with the injury that kept him out last week one of the other receivers needs to step up. If only to stop Tyreek Hill from having a strop when he draws all the Bills’ defense to his side of the field. Luckily for Tyreek, there aren’t many better coaches in the league than McDaniels when it comes to figuring out the best way to use his players’ talents. And boy did he use Berrios’ the last time the Dolphins played the Bills. Even though they lost, Berrios ended that game with 6 receptions from 6 targets. He racked up 43 yards and a touchdown through the air. And his only carry went for 11 yards.
Berrios is mostly used as a punt returner in Miami. But if he can make defenders miss when he’s returning punts why can’t he do the same on short passes or runs from the slot? And Kevin Harries gashed the Bills’ defense on a screen pass last week (and the Patriots’ offense certainly isn’t the Dolphins’ offense). Berrios has only had 26 touches this season as he’s battled concussion problems, but he is averaging 9.2 yards per touch.
He’ll be the sixth or seventh most expensive receiver in this DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown slate. And if the Dolphins decide to stick to what they’re good at they should throw a lot of quick, short passes to challenge the Bills’ defense.
The “Ooh, Well He Might Be The One” Pick – Robbie Chosen
The best way to open the short passing game is (counterintuitively) to stretch the field with a few early deep passes. And if the Dolphins want to surprise the Bills, then Robbie is the guy. Everyone knows Tyreek is the ultimate deep threat, but Chosen has only caught 4 passes this season, but he’s averaging 31.5 yards per catch! The Dolphins have won every game that Chosen has caught a pass in this season.
Chosen should be the cheapest receiver in this DraftKings DFS game. And he’ll have a very important role if the Dolphins are to be at the top of their game.
The Under The Radar Pick – Ty Johnson
At this stage, Johnson is as famous for his impressive hair-do as he is for his play on the field. But he’s become more involved in the offense since Week 10. He’s had 29 carries this season and they’ve all come in the last 7 games.
He’s averaging 5.1 yards per touch this season, that’s just 0.6 yards behind James Cook. Johnson should be the sixth most expensive running back on the DraftKings DFS slate and the Dolphins are conceding an average of 19.9 DraftKings DFS points per game to running backs.
The Bills Best Receiver In 2023 Pick – Khalil Shakir
Shakir is averaging 15.2 yards per touch this season! And if that’s not enough he only dropped one pass in December. He hauled in 8 out of 9 targets. He recorded 106 yards from scrimmage in his last four games. Why the Bills don’t pass to him more will remain a mystery.
He’ll be the sixth most expensive receiver on this DraftKings DFS slate. And as the Dolphins have conceded 16 touchdowns to wide receivers this season Shakir should get more looks from Josh Allen last time. Allen only targeted Shakir when the teams met in Buffalo, even though he threw 25 passes for 320 yards in that game!
Main Photo: Jamie Germano-USA TODAY NETWORK
