In one of the marquee match-ups of the NFL season, the Baltimore Ravens will head to Santa Clara to take on the San Francisco 49ers on Christmas night. Both Baltimore and San Francisco are the top seeds in their respective conferences. They arguably harbor the top two MVP candidates, San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy and Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson. For a whole host of reasons, this match-up presents itself to be one of the most tactically vibrant match-ups this season.
Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is having one of the best seasons by a defense coordinator ever. He has built his defense on top of the All-Pro play of his linebackers, Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith. Queen and Smith will be the leads in attempting to stop the Christian McCaffrey train. Stopping McCaffrey would go a long way in containing the 49ers’ dynamic offense.
If you are a fan of great linebacker play, this is the game for you. San Francisco’s pairing of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw might be the best in the league. Warner is the league’s best linebacker, even though Smith is right there. Greenlaw has consistently been one of the most underrated players in the entire league and is having an elite year. This dynamic duo will work on stopping one of the most electric players in the history of the league, former league MVP Lamar Jackson.
The 49ers and Ravens Are in a Rare Late-Season Showdown
Containing the 49ers Offense
MacDonald also employs several creative blitzes, designed to confuse the opposing quarterback. His key weapon in blitz packages is second-year safety Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton is playing at a high level, and he will need to be at the top of his game for Baltimore to have a chance. MacDonald’s blitzes will be intended to confuse Brock Purdy. However, Purdy has been the best quarterback against the blitz all season.
Purdy has shredded the blitz all season long. Here are his statistics against the blitz this season:
- 1,529 yards (1st in the NFL)
- 9.9 Yards Per Attempt (1st in the NFL)
- 14 Touchdowns (1st in the NFL)
- 127.9 Rating (1st in the NFL)
- 68.2 Completion Percentage (4th in the NFL)
Purdy is one of the few quarterbacks in the league who are unfazed under pressure. He can pick apart a defense if he sees extra blitzers or even when he is under significant pressure. Such as this pass to George Kittle against the Jacksonville Jaguars:
Purdy throws insane pass to Kittle! #49ers vs #Jaguars #NFL #sundaynightfootball pic.twitter.com/3it1HDCzsz
— SportsCorner365 (@sportscorner921) November 12, 2023
Or perhaps this beauty of a pass, also to George Kittle with a Cardinal right in his face:
You can blitz 49ers Brock Purdy or drop your entire defense in coverage but it really doesn't matter
The game manager is going to pick apart whatever you put in front of him pic.twitter.com/8G63ldDxnQ
— Brad (@Graham_SFN) December 19, 2023
MacDonald will have to be very careful in the way he decides to attack Purdy and the 49ers’ passing offense. Blitzing heavily will lead to a lot of issues for his defense. Purdy will shred them. The 49ers are also a heavily situational offense. They lean heavily into doing one thing against certain looks or downs.
San Francisco’s Situational Tendencies
A position that is dying off that both these teams use is fullback. San Francisco’s Kyle Juszczyk is the best there is, and Kyle Shanahan likes to use him in multiple different positions. You could catch Juice playing fullback, a more traditional running back role, tight end, and even wide receiver in any given play. The 49ers use 21 personnel (2 RB/FB, 2 WRs, 1 TE) more than anyone else in the league, about 43.3% of their early downs. Due to Juszczyk’s versatility, they can line up in any alignment out of this usually restrictive personnel grouping.
Shanahan will also send out a “can” play, which allows Purdy to move to the secondary play-call based on whether the defense is in man or zone. All the motioning the 49ers do is to figure out the coverage of the opponent. Figuring out what the defense is doing is key in San Francisco’s play-calling. The 49ers pass on 67.1% of snaps against man coverage on early downs, which is first in the NFL. In stark contrast, they only pass on 46.4% of snaps against zone coverage on early downs, which is last in the NFL.
Baltimore’s Defensive Tendencies
The Ravens are really big on two-high safety looks. They love their two high shells in Baltimore and a heavy dose of zone coverage, especially on early downs. With the Ravens playing zone on early downs and the 49ers preferring to run against zone coverage on early downs, it sets up a big Christian McCaffrey game. If the 49ers are to tote the ball with McCaffrey as their primary method of moving the ball, this game will largely be in the hands of linebackers Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith, as well as safety Kyle Hamilton.
If they can get the 49ers out of their early down tendencies and force them to pass against zone? That could really throw off the well-oiled machine that is the 49ers offense. If Hamilton, Smith, and Queen are flying around to make tackles to limit the Yards After Catch production of the 49ers and stop McCaffrey, the Ravens might have the upper hand in this clash of titans. They will also need to mix up their coverages to keep Purdy on his toes.
However, playing extended man coverage against any of the 49ers’ weapons and Purdy’s vision could be disastrous for the Ravens. That’s where they’ll need their pass rush unit of Jadeveon Clowney, Odafe Oweh, and Justin Madubuike to step up. Madubuike has been playing at an All-Pro level all season long and Clowney’s match-up against Trent Williams is very intriguing.
Containing Lamar and the Ravens’ Rush Attack
In their victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday Night Football, the Ravens ran the ball a whopping 42 times for a total of 251 yards. This is an average of 6 yards per carry. The 49ers cannot hope to win this game if the Ravens are allowed to run the ball at will. Jackson led the way in that game, carrying the ball 12 times for 97 yards. Unfortunately for the Ravens, breakout rookie running back Keaton Mitchell will miss the rest of the season with an ugly knee injury.
Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw will have to be on top of their game for the 49ers to stop the Ravens rush attack. The 49ers could also be without Pro Bowl defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave on Monday night. This will effectively put all the pressure of stopping the Ravens dynamic run game on Warner and Greenlaw. If the Ravens are allowed to run the ball into the ground, the 49ers defense will have a long day and force the 49ers offense to work in ways it’s not used to.
Final Verdict
There is no doubt that this is going to be a big game for both teams. This is going to heavyweight match-up. The Ravens boast the NFL’s #1 scoring defense, while the 49ers claim the NFL’s #2 scoring defense. San Francisco’s offense averages the third most points per game and the Ravens are right behind them at four.
I have the 49ers winning this game with a final score of 38-17. This is because the 49ers are simply unstoppable when fully healthy and locked in. Not even the Ravens can slow them down. Brock Purdy will lock up his MVP award on primetime, with another one of those classic Purdy games that we’ve seen from him all year. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and McCaffrey at the same time are simply unguardable for any defense.
San Francisco’s offense will simply force the Ravens out of their element and not even the dynamic Lamar Jackson will be able to save them.
Main Photo: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
