It is so exciting to have real, live NFL football back in our lives. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings every week. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 16 DraftKings plays.
READ MORE: Week 16 Streamers
Week 16 DraftKings Plays
Week 15 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s good for the readers and helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
🚨RECAP THREAD🚨
For full transparency each week I'll recap my #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL #NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
https://t.co/59Odw4vJba— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) December 18, 2023
Looking back at Week 15, it was worse than Week 14 from a recommendations standpoint. This week only 44% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback and tight end groups led the way tied at a 60% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear at a 28.6% success rate. Personally, it was a profitable week this week. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and stay in the profits in the Week 16 DraftKings plays.
- Week 15 – $512 → $643 ($131 PROFIT)
- Year Total – $6,431 → $6,154 ($277 LOSS)
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields (CHI) – $7,100 v ARI
Justin Fields has one of the highest floors of any quarterback in fantasy football. Just last week he had a horrible game, completing only 19 of 40 passes for 166 yards and two interceptions and still came away with 11.6 DraftKings points. Fields ran less than usual in this one too with only 30 yards on the ground. In the previous three games, he had rushed for 221 yards on 42 carries and didn’t have less than 58 rushing yards or 12 carries in any of those three games.
That’s more typical rushing output for Fields and what fantasy managers should expect this week when the Chicago Bears take on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are not good on defense and have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. The Bears also have a nice 23.75-point implied team total too. With his salary staying down coming off a bad game, Fields looks like one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays among all quarterbacks.
Don’t be surprised when Justin Fields throws 3 Touchdowns, Passes for 250+ yards, and comfortably beats the Cardinals Sunday.
Book it, come back to this, bookmark it, I don’t care, I know this will happen. pic.twitter.com/QWamw0R5Zr
— 🗽Sam (@FieldsIsHim) December 22, 2023
Nick Mullens (MIN) – $5,300 v DET
Anyone who watched Nick Mullens play last week can testify that he’s a scary watch. He makes plenty of crazy decisions but the fact that he’s not scared to make them is something we like in fantasy football. A sack or turnover is nowhere near as detrimental on DraftKings as it is in real life so the reward heavily outweighs the risk. Even though it looked ugly, Mullens still finished with 22.1 DraftKings points last week. This week he gets another juicy matchup as the Minnesota Vikings host the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year. This game has the second-highest projected combined total on the slate at 47 points. The Vikings are three-point underdogs with a solid 22-point implied team total. This game is also being played in a dome. All of these things boost Mullens’ outlook this week.
Others to Consider: Kyler Murray (ARI) – $6,400 @ CHI, Baker Mayfield (TB) – $6,000 v JAX, Joe Flacco (CLE) – $5,500 @ HOU
Running Backs
Rachaad White (TB) – $7,400 v JAX
Don’t look now but Rachaad White has turned into one of the most consistent running backs in fantasy football. He’s scored at least 15 DraftKings points in nine straight games now. A few of those were tough matchups as well. This week the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are middle-of-the-pack in regards to rushing defense. They have allowed the 13th-most DraftKings points to running backs this year.
This one is less about the matchup than it is about the role and production. White is one of the few workhorse running backs in the NFL. He’s very involved as a pass-catcher which helps keep him gamescript proof. White has caught 50 passes for 469 yards and three touchdowns on the season. That’s in addition to 834 rushing yards and five more scores. The Buccaneers are currently 2.5-point favorites with a solid 22-point implied team total.
Seven touchdowns in the last seven weeks for Rachaad White 🔥
He has scored under 15 fantasy points just ONCE since Week 7 pic.twitter.com/PUT0bDOnDs
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 17, 2023
Ty Chandler (MIN) – $5,600 v DET
Ty Chandler stepped in for an injured Alexander Mattison last week and looked better than Mattison has all year. He rushed for 132 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Chandler also caught three of his four targets for another 25 yards on his way to 27.7 DraftKings points. Sure the matchup was favorable but that’s very good production. It seems likely that Mattison is going to miss this week as well giving Chandler the chance to lead the way once again.
The matchup isn’t as strong this time against the Lions who have been the stingiest rush defense in the league this year. They’ve softened a bit lately without their best run-stuffer, Alim McNeill. That should allow Chandler some extra room. Given the good usage, nice game environment, and affordable price tag, Chandler is one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays among running backs.
Others to Consider: Breece Hall (NYJ) – $6,100 v WAS, Aaron Jones (GB) – $6,400 @ CAR, Tony Pollard (DAL) – $6,700 @ MIA, Jonathan Taylor (IND) – $7,200 @ ATL, Bijan Robinson (ATL) – $6,300 v IND
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson (MIN) – $8,100 v DET
Justin Jefferson started his 2023 campaign in typical “Justin Jefferson” fashion by scoring at least 25 DraftKings points in the first four games. He then proceeded to get hurt and miss most of the season. Jefferson returned in Week 14 but only played in limited fashion in a weird 3-0 game. Last week he looked mostly back to normal as he caught seven of his ten targets for 84 yards. That was good for 15.4 DraftKings points. Fantasy managers should expect more of that this week and likely even better.
As previously mentioned, the Lions are much easier to attack through the air than on the ground so that helps Jefferson’s outlook. Also as previously mentioned, this game has one of the highest combined totals on the slate and is being played in a dome. Jefferson is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL and is not priced that way because of recent injuries and that makes him one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays at wide receiver.
Justin Jefferson is ABSURD 🤯
pic.twitter.com/Plp5ojilkS— PFF (@PFF) December 16, 2023
Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $5,700 @ NYJ
Terry McLaurin had been enjoying a typically good season before falling into a rough stretch over the last month or so. He was scoring single-digit DraftKings points in every game during that stretch. McLaurin finally broke that slump in a big way last week. He caught six of his twelve targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. That was good for 29.1 DraftKings points which was his best performance of the season.
This week he gets a tough matchup as the Washington Commanders take on the New York Jets. The Jets have been the hardest matchup for wide receivers this season but McLaurin should be able to overcome assuming they move him around the formation so that Sauce Gardner doesn’t shadow him. The Commanders are currently three-point underdogs so the projected gamescript should be in their favor to throw early and often, much to the benefit of McLaurin.
Others to Consider: Michael Wilson (ARI) – $3,700 @ CHI, Jayden Reed (GB) – $5,400 @ CAR, DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) – $6,100 v SEA, CeeDee Lamb (DAL) – $9,200 @ MIA, Garrett Wilson (NYJ) – $5,800 v WAS, Drake London (ATL) – $5,100 v IND
Tight Ends
Trey McBride (ARI) – $5,700 @ CHI
Trey McBride’s meteoric rise is nothing short of astounding. He struggled his entire rookie season and even started out slow this season as he sat behind Zach Ertz. Once Ertz got hurt, it’s been wheels-up for McBride as he’s ascended to be considered among the weekly elite at the tight end position. He’s been especially good lately scoring at least 22 DraftKings points in two straight games now. McBride has seen at least nine targets in four of the last five games and at least seven targets in five straight games now.
This week he gets a great matchup against the Bears. The Bears have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to tight ends this season. At this point, McBride should be the highest-priced tight end on any slate that doesn’t have Travis Kelce. The fact that he’s not and is still priced under $6,000 makes him one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays among tight ends.
Trey McBride ranks…
[ 1st in Target Rate ]
[ 1st in Yards per Route Run ]and not a single Tight End has a HIGHER PPG since Week 8
Top Three Dynasty Tight End pic.twitter.com/gvtxWx2YSP
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) December 20, 2023
Kyle Pitts (ATL) – $4,000 v IND
It’s been a rough season for Kyle Pitts. There’s no other way to put it at this point. Arthur Smith is mostly to blame as he can’t seem to involve his best offensive weapons consistently. It’s frustrating because Pitts is so talented and such a mismatch that he could be an elite tight end if used correctly. This week he gets a solid matchup as the Atlanta Falcons host the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts’ defense has been decent but nothing to fear. They are playing this game in a dome which is a nice boost to both passing offenses. Taylor Heinicke is taking over as the starter for the Falcons which hopefully brings more pass attempts. This game has one of the better projected combined totals at 44.5 points and the Falcons have a nice 23.5-point implied team total. If everything clicks correctly, Pitts could have a nice finish to a disappointing season.
Others to Consider: David Njoku (CLE) – $5,300 @ HOU, Jake Ferguson (DAL) – $4,900 @ MIA, Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) – $3,100 v SEA
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I aim to target the heavily favored teams as they usually play with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often, which can help lead to extra sacks, turnovers, and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. I advise filling out the rest of your lineup first and then picking your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Nick Mullens
- RB – Ty Chandler
- RB – Breece Hall
- WR – Jayden Reed
- WR – Justin Jefferson
- WR – Michael Wilson
- TE – David Njoku
- Flex – Rachaad White
- DST – New York Jets
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 16 DraftKings plays and the best picks for Week 17. Best of luck to everyone and let’s enjoy some football and win some money!
Main Photo: Kareem Elgazzar – USA Today Sports
