Three seasons ago, the New York Jets made an egregious mistake that will change the course of their future for a decade. Now three seasons later, the Washington Commanders face those same Jets with a similar fork in the road, albeit less extreme. The temptation to win games at all costs is undeniably strong for players, coaches, and fans alike. And for good reason. That’s why we watch the games and it’s why the players play. But it’s equally, if not more important, to consider the future health of the franchise. Unfortunately, sometimes the short-term dopamine hit isn’t worth the long-term consequences.
Commanders Should Learn From the Jets Mistake
The Race For Last Place
The year was 2020. Three seasons after selecting a quarterback with the #3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, it was clear that the Sam Darnold experiment was over in New York. The Jets were the worst team in the NFL through 14 weeks, winless at 0-13. Luckily, the upcoming 2021 draft came with a promise of redemption: a once-in-a-decade prospect that the NFL hadn’t seen since Andrew Luck. They don’t make can’t-miss quarterback prospects like Trevor Lawrence very often, and when they do, only one team gets him. And he was the Jets’ to lose.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were the second-worst team in the league. They had miraculously won their first game of the season but lost every game since. As a result, they’d remained a full game behind the Jets in the Lawrence Sweepstakes at 1-12. There was nothing they could do but continue to send out the platoon of Gardner Minshew, Jake Luton, and Mike Glennon to lose games. New York controlled their own destiny. Instead of securing the top pick, however, the Jets won their next two meaningless games and finished the season 2-14. The Jaguars didn’t win another game.
Where Are They Now?
Jacksonville leapfrogged New York for the #1 overall pick and selected Trevor Lawrence, as expected. To no one’s surprise, Lawrence has been light-years better than any of the other four first-round quarterbacks in the 2021 draft. After a 3-14 rookie year under head coach Urban Meyer, the Jaguars fired Meyer and finished 9-8 in Lawrence’s sophomore season. They won the AFC South and had an electric comeback win in a divisional playoff game. This season, the Jaguars lead the AFC South once again at 8-6 and are perennial playoff contenders moving forward.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets are back in familiar territory. After selecting BYU quarterback Zach Wilson with the #2 overall pick in 2021, that experiment has backfired tremendously. Despite being repeatedly set up for failure, an entirely different story, the Jets have a 13-19 record with Wilson as the team’s leading passer. He has been benched multiple times, been the subject of comical off-field drama (well, some funny on-field stuff, too), and has been replaced by high-priced acquisition Aaron Rodgers. Worst of all, the Jets are right back where they were in 2018 and 2021.
Lesson Learned
As the Washington Commanders prepare to face the 5-9 Jets in Week 15, they have an opportunity to learn from their opponent’s mistake. At 4-10 with a .513 strength of schedule, the Commanders currently hold the #4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. If they lose the rest of their games, they’d have a realistic chance to jump to the #2 pick. Perhaps more importantly, it would guarantee a top-4 selection. Five teams are currently tied with a 5-9 record and three of those teams hold the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker against Washington. With a win against the Jets, the Commanders could fall all the way to pick #7 in just one week.
This would be a precipitous drop. A top-4 selection locks the team into either a blue-chip position player or a top-3 quarterback. A meaningless Week 15 win will not single-handedly create the winning culture that Ron Rivera was supposed to build over the last four seasons. It will not galvanize the locker room, momentum won’t be carried into the offseason, and no one will care that the Commanders finished the year with five wins instead of four. It could, on the other hand, prevent the team from landing a franchise-changing talent in the draft. As the Commanders travel to MetLife Stadium this week, they should learn from the Jets mistake.
Main Photo: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
