Last season, the Jaguars looked out of the playoff race early in the season. The team closed the season with five consecutive wins and overtook the Titans with a week 18 win that vaulted them into the playoffs. For a team with a history of losing it was an incredible end to a season. They came into 2023 with high expectations and then proceeded to meet those expectations with an 8-3 start to the year. Then, the opposite of 2022 happened. Rather than playing great down the stretch, at least so far, the Jaguars have choked. The team has lost three games in a row and has turned the AFC playoff picture into a murky mess. After competing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs four weeks ago, the team is now struggling to win the division it used to control.
The Colts, Texans, and Jaguars are all 8-6 and tied for first place in the AFC South. A division that looked like a sure thing for the Jaguars is now anyone’s to win…or lose. Even so, the Jaguars still control their own fate to win the division. The Jaguars swept the season series against the Colts to hold the tiebreaker over them. If they beat the Titans in Week 18, they will also hold the “best record vs divisional opponents” tiebreaker over the Texans. The bottom line is that the Jaguars control their own fate to win the division and make the AFC playoff picture a little easier to understand.
What Has Happened to the Division Leading Jaguars?
Late in the season, every team faces injuries and adversity. As the Jaguars proved last year, it is what each team does in the face of those injuries and adversity that defines who they are. So far, the Jaguars have defined themselves as an average NFL team with a lot of talent and potential. That was seen Sunday night against the Ravens, but there are underlying issues with the team as well.
Against the Ravens
The Jaguars gained 182 yards of offense in the first half. They also scored zero points. With two missed field goals, a fumble by Lawrence, and an inexplicable call at the five-yard line with seconds left in the half, the offense moved the ball and could not score. With a banged-up and below-average offensive line, Trevor Lawrence was getting rid of the ball quickly. He was also inaccurate and careless with the football. Calvin Ridley is just not a good football player right now. He has drawn a lot of penalties, but he has clearly lost a step and his route-running is suspect at best. Rookie receiver Parker Washington was filling in for Christian Kirk and he looked lost most of the game. He also dropped at least three passes that hit him in the hands.
The Jaguars were not overmatched on the field by the Ravens. They moved the ball and held the Ravens offense in check most of the night. The Jaguars were, however, overmatched on the sidelines. John Harbaugh’s Ravens were tougher and had a better game plan on Sunday night. The Ravens’ communication was better, the play calling was better, and the hustle/toughness factor was clearly won by Baltimore. The Ravens looked like a well-coached team with an identity on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars looked, well, like the Jaguars.
The Offense Is Flat
Last year, with Doug Pederson leading the offense from his head coaching role, the team thrived. He was scheming receivers open, rolling Lawrence out, and buying time for his offensive line. Travis Etienne looked like a terrific all-around running back and the team looked great. This year, with Press Taylor calling the plays, the whole offense looks flat. Every throw is contested, Etienne looks average on a good night, and Lawrence has to get rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or he is going to get hit. Is everything play calling? No. There have been injuries and Trevor Lawrence has regressed in his decision-making. At the same time, this offense is painful to watch. There is more than enough talent to score points and win games, but the team has been completely reliant on the defense all year.
The Defense Is Struggling
The defense played well enough to win against the Ravens. Even without their two best defensive backs, Andre Cisco and Tyson Campbell, Lamar Jackson struggled at points to move the ball. Travon Walker played his best game of the season against the Ravens, but the pass rush is still average at best. There has been a “bend but not break” mentality on this defense all year, and that type of defense usually gets destroyed by good teams and in the playoffs. So far in 2023, that is what has happened to the Jaguars. They beat bad teams with their defense and lose to good teams because of their defense. They are an impact player away from being a good defense, and they are below average when they are missing the players they have been missing lately.
Trevor Lawrence Looks…Average
Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle. He looks like an elite quarterback, makes every single throw, and is as tough as anyone playing the position. Lawrence is also not playing well. He still makes odd mistakes like dropping a ball without being touched or throwing into triple coverage. He missed a lot of throws against the Ravens and had a lot of drops as well. For whatever reason, Lawrence has struggled most of the season. He is still a franchise quarterback and will be a cornerstone player in Jacksonville for years. He is just inconsistent and so far in 2023 he is average, and this offense lives and dies with its leader.
Main Photo Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union
