With four games to go, two involving NFC North foes, the Green Bay Packers are in a position to make a postseason birth. They host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Both teams have a lot on the line.
With both teams holding onto postseason aspirations down the stretch, the Buccaneers stand in the way of the Packers’ playoff push.
After starting the season slowly, Green Bay had been playing their best football of the season through November. With their loss to the Giants, the Packers now must win the majority of their remaining games to remain playoff-eligible. If Green Bay drops another game, they will need considerable help from other teams. Having lost to Atlanta in Week 2 but beaten New Orleans in Week 13, the game against the Buccaneers becomes all that much more important.
A Ripple in Both Divisions
The NFC South is still largely undecided. As it stands, the Buccanneers are in a three-way tie with the Falcons and Saints for the division. But for the Saints, their season has begun to spiral after a 5-4 start. Atlanta, meanwhile, draws a tough schedule to close out the season. All of this means that Tampa Bay’s game against the Packers will carry plenty of weight in potential tie-breaker situations.
As for the NFC North, Green Bay has clawed its way into contention for not only a wildcard berth but also a division crown. Considered at one point impossible, the Packers presently have everything in front of them. To take back the NFC North, they will need the Lions to drop a few games and also win three of their own. Worth noting is that Detroit has a difficult stretch to close out the season. After playing the Broncos on Saturday, the Lions must travel to Minnesota and Dallas before hosting the Vikings in Week 18. Their series against the Vikings has huge implications for the Packers, and, depending on how Green Bay fares, could create chaos to close the season.
Slow Down the Stars
Before thinking about a division title, there is a Buccaneers team that stands in the way of the Packers’ playoff push. On paper, this game appears winnable for Green Bay. The Buccaneers are stout on defense but have sputtered at times on offense. Baker Mayfield has given the Bucs solid, but often unspectacular, play. Despite having a slew of playmakers at receiver, Mayfield has only eclipsed the 300-yard mark in passing once this season. Buoying the passing attack, yet again, has been Mike Evans. Having already secured his tenth-consecutive season with more than 1,000 yards receiving, Evans is the engine that carries this passing attack. Like the Falcons did last week, the Packers must focus their efforts on shutting him down.
Outside of Evans, the Bucs have struggled to find playmakers. Through 13 games, the Bucs rank 4th worst in the NFL in rushing yards per game. But in recent weeks, Tampa Bay has leaned on Rachaad White, their second-year running back out of Arizona State. White’s surge started in Week 9 against the Houston Texans. Since that game, he has received no less than 15 carries in all but one game and has scored five total touchdowns (per ESPN stats).
For the Packers, defending the run has not come easy. They currently rank as the NFL’s second-worst defense against the run (per ESPN stats). Green Bay has given up no less than 140 yards on the ground in each of their last five games, and twice allowed 200 or more. Controlling the lines of scrimmage will again be a focal point for the Packers as they look to slow down the Bucs. A big game from White could, yet again, spell trouble for Green Bay.
Break the Big Ones
During Green Bay’s November surge, there were a handful of explosive plays from the offense. Jordan Love played some of the best football of his young career. This was largely possible because the playmakers were able to find soft spots in the defense. Against the Buccaneers, those explosive plays might not be so easy to generate. Tampa Bay is a blitz-heavy team, like the Giants. Love has had mixed results against pressure this season. According to the Buccaneers website, Love ranks 30th in the NFL in terms of completion percentage success rate against pressure. Thus, mixing up their personnel and finding creative ways to get their playmakers the ball in space becomes essential. Doing so means a heavy dose of Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed.
In all but one game, Watson has averaged more than 10 yards per reception (per ESPN stats). He is also the guy that Love looks for on deep shots. In five games this season, Watson has hauled in at least one catch of more than 20 yards. He has also scored four touchdowns in the last three games he played. Reed, too, has quickly become a favorite of Love’s. He has become an explosive play machine. On the season, Reed has recorded a catch of 30+ yards in five games. As a runner, he has scored two touchdowns on the ground. Reed has also ripped off three carries of 20 or more yards (per ESPN stats).
Tampa Bay is coming off a game against the Falcons in which they let three players record a reception of 30+ yards (per ESPN stats). Their defense has dealt with injuries but could be getting back key players like Vita Vea, Devin White, and Carlton Davis. While injuries are something that every team has to deal with, the availability of the Buccaneer’s top defenders will go a long way in dictating the outcome of this game.
Watson, Wicks, and Reed could be on the mend, which means more of Romeo Doubs and Malik Heath. The depth of Green Bay’s receiver room was tested against the Giants, and could again be against the Bucs. With the playoffs hanging in the balance, Green Bay’s defense must shut down White and Evans. A few big plays from their young receivers could, yet again, make the difference in what should be a close contest.
Main Photo: [Green Bay Press-Gazette] – USA Today Sports
