New England @ Pittsburgh is as disappointing as unwrapping your 9th pair of socks will be on Christmas morning. They both had pretty uninspiring offenses to begin with, but with no Kenny Pickett or Rhamondre Stevenson you’ll only be watching to see if TJ Watt can record double-digit sacks on Bailey Zappe (and he might). The Patriots offensive line seems to enjoy Zappe being sacked even more than they enjoyed Mac Jones hitting the turf. Not even DraftKings DFS can save this abomination of a matchup. But that won’t stop us trying.
DraftKings Thursday Night bargains for Week 14
The Not Really A Bargain Bargain DraftKings DFS Pick – Jaylen Warren
Yes he’s expensive for a bargain. He’s actually $12,000, but remember how New England has only scored 13 points in their last 3 games? Well you won’t be picking any of that offense, will you? There are still 8 players who will cost you more than Warren. And it’ll be a real surprise if Warren isn’t the highest scorer in this game.
The weather interrupted the game against the Steelers felt like it lasted several days to viewers, but it must have felt even longer to Najee Harris. Harris had 16 rushing attempts and saw 3 targets in the passing game too. So the Steelers should spell him a lot more in this game. After a short week, he’ll need some rest as Pittsburgh heads into a brutal end of the season.
Warren only caught 1 pass against the Cardinals and that went for –4 yards. But he ran the ball 9 times and went for 59 yards. He’s become an important part of the Steelers offense recently. He averaged 11.4 carries in his last 5 games. And he’s averaging 97 yards per game across those games! That’s why he’s expensive, but he’s bound to go off this week.
The Most Sensible DraftKings DFS Pick – Connor Heyward
Cam’s little brother has become a very interesting and useful part of the Steelers offense in his second season. He’s already caught more passes in 2023 than he did in all of 2022. And he’s started 3 games and that’s 3 more than he started last as a rookie.
With Mitchel Trubisky likely to start his first game of the season on a short week it seems logical that short, quick passes and a lot of running will be the order of the day. The Patriots are only allowing an average of 8.5 DraftKings DFS points per game in 2023. But they are allowing 70% of passes thrown to the tight end to be completed. And they haven’t played against a tight-end pairing quite like Freiermuth and Heyward.
The Old Faithful DraftKings DFS Pick – Allen Robinson II
Robinson hasn’t caught a touchdown pass yet this season and he’s certainly not vintage Robinson. But in his last 3 games, he’s caught 88% of his 8 targets. He’s catching the quick, short passes too. His average depth of target in 2023 is just 7.8 yards. That’s the lowest of his career. But it’s perfect for this week.
Robinson is likely to line up opposite Myles Bryant who has seen a lot more game time than anyone expected. The Patriots’ defensive backfield has been decimated by injuries in 2023 so the 5’9” Bryant has played 75% of the defensive snaps this season. That’s 14% more than he played last season. Bryant is allowing a passer rating of 109.7 in 2023, a career-high. He has missed 9.5% of the tackles he’s been asked to make and he’s given up 3 touchdowns. Trubisky should be looking for him on pass plays.
The Completely Bonker DraftKings DFS Pick – JaMycal Hasty
There are wild choices in DraftKings DFS and then there’s JaMycal Hasty. Hasty is one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL. But he hasn’t played since the 29th of October. And he hasn’t caught a pass since Week 16 last year! He’s only $200 in DraftKings DFS this week (so that makes up for Jaylen Warren) and more importantly, he’s one of the Patriots running backs who aren’t on the injury report.
The Counterintuitive Pick – Patriots D/ST
The offense has been horrendous in 2023, but the Patriots defense has created 11 turnovers. They’ve also recorded 24 sacks The Patriots defense should score some points against a new QB. Trubisky has had minimal time to immerse himself in the offense. And don’t forget the Steelers have a new offensive coordinator too. The Patriots D/ST will set you back $5,000 in DraftKings DFS this week but they average more DFS points than 12 members of the Patriots offense.
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