Coming off an upset win over the Detroit Lions, the Green Bay Packers host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in prime time. The Chiefs are vying for a top seed in the AFC playoff bracket, while the Packers are fighting for a wildcard birth. Big playoff implications await both teams.
With the playoffs suddenly within reach for Green Bay, here are three ways the Packers can beat the Chiefs on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Capitalize on Dropped Balls
Dropped balls are impossible to project, but if there is a team that has consistently struggled with drops all season, it is the Kansas City Chiefs. According to ESPN, the Chiefs receivers have recorded a 6.8% drop rate. While this number may seem small, two of the Chiefs’ three losses have involved crucial drops from their receivers. In Week 1, Kadarius Toney made headlines for dropping multiple passes in the game. Against the Eagles, the Chiefs had a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter when Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a potential game-winning throw by Patrick Mahomes II. The Valdes-Scantling drop underscores the issues that the Chiefs have had this season: young players dropping crucial passes in key moments.
Predicting or relying on drops is no way to win a game, but Green Bay can capitalize on these mistakes by Kansas City. Dropped balls can lead to longer conversions for the Chiefs. Through 11 games, Kansas City has struggled to convert on both third and fourth down attempts that are beyond 7 yards. Kansas City has run 68 such plays this season (per pro-football reference) and converted only 12 of them. Mahomes, especially, has struggled to convert long downs. Through 11 games, he has thrown nine interceptions, and all but one of those occurred on a down that was 7 yards or more yards to go (per pro-football reference).
For Green Bay, there will be opportunities for the defense to put the Chiefs into situations where they need to convert long downs. A few drops along the way could tilt the field in a way that benefits the Packers and allows them to keep this game close.
Continue to Start Hot
In wins over the Lions and Chargers, the Packers came out hot. Slow starts were a detriment to this team early in the year. After only scoring two touchdowns in the first halves of their games through September and October, the Packers’ win over the Rams to start November was a sign that they were turning a corner. Since defeating the Rams, the Packers have won two of their three games and have done so by executing scoring drives on seven of their 16 first-half possessions.
Scoring early to keep the game within reach will be crucial for Green Bay. While the Chiefs have won eight games, they have been forced to rally late in their last three games. Against the Dolphins and Eagles, Kansas City was held scoreless in the second half of both games. The game against Green Bay could follow a similar script.
While trailing in games this season, the Chiefs have thrown the ball 95 times while only attempting 37 rushes. Mahomes, in those moments, has his lowest completion percentages, touchdowns, and passer ratings of the season (per pro-football reference). Furthermore, Mahomes has played his best football when he is getting the ball out quickly.
For Green Bay, it will come down to forcing Mahomes and the Chiefs into converting long downs and doing so in a situation where the Chiefs are trailing.
Feed the Young Playmakers
Since the start of November, Jordan Love has thrown 138 pass attempts. He has 90 completions in that time, with eight touchdown passes to two interceptions (per ESPN stats). Much of Love’s success has come down to his ability to evenly and accurately distribute the ball to his young pass catchers. In that same period, players like Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed have found their footing. This trio of young receivers has helped propel the Packers, with each player respectively hauling in two touchdowns during November.
These scores have resulted from a higher target share for the young receivers. Since the start of November, Reed has received most of Love’s targets with 22. Doubs in that same time has received 18 targets, while Watson has received 20. Add in the emergence of Dontayvion Wicks, and the Packers have found a recipe for success in their passing game.
Kansas City, meanwhile, has shown vulnerability on the road when it comes to defending the pass. Their defense has allowed more touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, a higher completion percentage, and also produced fewer sacks on the road (per pro-football reference). Given how well Green Bay has played since the start of November, they can catch Kansas City on a defensive slump and it starts with attacking the secondary with their young, talented receivers.
In the end, this game means more for the Packers than it does for the Chiefs, as far as playoff seeding goes. But, even as an underdog, there are three ways the Packers can beat the Chiefs.
Main Photo: [David Reginek] – USA Today Sports
