As outlined in an earlier article this week, the Washington Commanders have performed at, or slightly below, preseason expectations to this point. Ten games is a valid sample size and provides an indication as to the level of play that fans can expect moving forward. With seven games remaining, the schedule can be separated into three distinct stretches of match-ups. Washington will likely be favorites in only three of the seven games but must win at least five to have a realistic chance at a playoff berth. Here is a glance at Washington’s rest-of-season outlook:
Washington Commanders Rest-of-Season Outlook
Before the Bye:
Week 11: vs. New York Giants
Week 12: at Dallas Cowboys
Week 13: vs. Miami Dolphins
This string of games is very similar to the most recent stretch against the Eagles, Patriots, and Seahawks. The Commanders almost certainly won’t go 0-3 or 3-0, but the difference between one and two wins is monumental. A loss to Tommy DeVito and the Giants could send owner Josh Harris on a firing spree, which could be a blessing in disguise, but it’s hard to imagine that happening.
If Washington beats New York, it could set up for a season-defining match-up against the rival Cowboys on Thanksgiving night. I predicted a one-point loss to Dallas before the season but wouldn’t be surprised if we get some Howell Heroics for the second straight year. Whatever the total is for the Dolphins game: take the over. Miami has the most explosive offense in the NFL and the Commanders aren’t stopping anybody.
Road Favorites:
Week 15: at Los Angeles Rams
Week 16: at New York Jets
This is a similar pairing of games as the Commanders faced in Weeks 6 and 7. On the road for back-to-back match-ups against teams they should beat, Washington split the pairing against the Falcons and Giants. That could easily happen again. Matthew Stafford is slated to return from injury this week and Aaron Rodgers is reportedly gearing up for an unprecedented recovery from his ruptured Achilles.
However, it’s unlikely that the NFC’s 12th-place Rams and AFC’s 13th-place Jets will be in the playoff hunt. By the time these games are played, both teams might have shut down multiple key contributors for the season. Regardless, Washington is the best team of the three. The Commanders are currently two full games behind the Vikings for the 7th seed in the playoffs; they must beat both the Rams and Jets to have a chance at the postseason.
Home Underdogs
Week 17: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 18: vs. Dallas Cowboys
The final two games are the complete opposite of the previous two. The Commanders finish the season at home against two of the NFC’s elite and will have bad blood with both. After an uncharacteristic three-game skid, the 49ers appear to have righted the ship in the short term. Chase Young will return to D.C. for the first time since the trade deadline and since his scathing comments about the culture in Washington. San Francisco isn’t invincible, but the pass rush discrepancy between these two teams will be tough to overcome.
Washington will probably find a way to split the two match-ups with Dallas. Commanders fans can hope that the Cowboys will have secured their playoff seed and could rest some starters. But it’s no guarantee. Unless the defense makes some drastic improvements, the Commanders will more than likely fall short of the final wildcard spot. Their rest-of-season outlook depends on internal progression and heating up at the right time.
Main Photo: [Joe Nicholson] – USA Today Sports
