It is so exciting to have real, live NFL football back in our lives. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 9 DraftKings plays.
READ MORE: Week 9 Streamers | Running Back Rankings | Tight End Rankings
Week 9 DraftKings Plays
Week 8 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s good for the readers and helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
Looking back at Week 8, it was better than Week 7 from a recommendations standpoint. This week only 60% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the wide receiver group led the way tied at a 62.5% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear tied at a 57.1% success rate. Personally, it was not a profitable week this week. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get back in the profits in the Week 9 DraftKings plays.
- Week 8 – $460 → $195 ($265 LOSS)
- Year Total – $2,891 → $2,565 ($326 LOSS)
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $8,000 v DAL
It feels like it’s been a bit of a down season for Jalen Hurts but then again he’s also still averaging 25.0 DraftKings points per game this season. He hasn’t scored less than 21.9 DraftKings points since Week 1 and has the best floor-to-ceiling combination of any quarterback in fantasy football. It looks like a tough matchup on paper as the Philadelphia Eagles take on a Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. Still, the overall offensive environment outweighs that here.
This week’s slate is littered with games with very low totals so this game stands out as having the highest combined total at 46.5 points. The Cowboys offense should be able to put some points on the board and hopefully push Hurts and the Eagles toward a ceiling game. Add it all up and Hurts looks like one of the best Week 9 DraftKings plays at quarterback this week, even at an elevated price tag.
Jalen Hurts is your NFC Offensive Player of the Week for Week 8.
Well deserved. He was phenomenal. pic.twitter.com/XHtbXThmpz
— Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeeg_) November 1, 2023
Aidan O’Connell (LV) – $4,500 v NYG
I’m not sure I can remember another single week in the NFL that had so many quarterback changes but luckily for fantasy managers, it could end up being something to take advantage of on DraftKings as prices will be low on many of them. The cheapest one this week is Aidan O’Connell for the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders decided to give O’Connell a shot and bench Jimmy Garroppolo this week against the New York Giants.
The Giants are decent on defense but not a team to be feared, especially after dealing away arguably their best defender, Leonard Williams. The 37.5-point combined total isn’t enticing but the Raiders have a 19.5-point implied team total in a game with a close spread. On top of that, this game will be played in a dome which is a boost to passing offenses. Ultimately, O’Connell is simply too cheap as a starting quarterback in a decent spot.
Others to Consider: Baker Mayfield (TB) – $5,200 @ HOU, Deshaun Watson (CLE) – $5,400 v ARI, Mac Jones (NE) – $4,900 v WAS
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (ATL) – $6,100 v MIN
Bijan Robinson had been priced in the mid $7,000 range for most of the season before his price dropped dramatically last week down to $6,000 following the “headache gate” situation. This past week he returned to his normal role seeing 11 carries and five targets but his price has stayed low as it only increased $100. It’s simply too low for someone as talented as Bijan who sees 15+ opportunities on a weekly basis.
The matchup against the Minnesota Vikings is somewhat tough as they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points to running backs so far this season but so was last week’s matchup. Robinson didn’t catch any of the five targets he saw last week, but that’s simply an outlier as he caught 26 of his 32 targets on the season heading into last week. The Atlanta Falcons also made a quarterback switch to Taylor Heinicke so hopefully, that can spark the offense. They currently sit as 2.5-point favorites with a 20.5-point implied team total. Robinson is simply too good and too cheap and that makes him one of the best Week 9 DraftKings plays.
Arthur Smith gave the ball to Bijan Robinson in the red zone and a super weird thing happened…he scored.
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) October 29, 2023
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) – $5,000 v IND
It’s been a lost season so far for Miles Sanders in his first year as a Carolina Panther. That’s been to the benefit of Chuba Hubbard as he’s all but taken over as the lead running back. Over the last two games, he’s seen 34 carries and three targets and scored 23.4 DraftKings points. In both games has played at least 66% of the snaps and seen at least 71% of the rushing attempts. Last game Sanders was active but only saw two carries and zero targets.
Hubbard seems to have usurped Sanders at this point and this week gets a juicy matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. This game’s 43.5-point combined total is the third-highest on the slate. There is some risk that Sanders could take back some more work but at Hubbard’s cheap price tag, that risk is mitigated a good amount.
Others to Consider: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – $5,400 v WAS, Josh Jacobs (LV) – $6,900 v NYG, Devin Singletary (HOU) – $4,300 v TB, Tony Pollard (DAL) – $6,800 @ PHI, Alvin Kamara (NO) – $8,100 v CHI
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave (NO) – $6,300 v CHI
I’m not sure people have really ever been lower on Chris Olave than they are right now. His price tag has hit a season-low and the narrative around him isn’t good right now. Fantasy managers are frustrated with him and that creates an opportunity here because his underlying metrics are still great. Olave is averaging over 9 targets and 130 air yards per game. He’s still got a 27% target share and 40% air yards share on the season. Those are elite numbers and it’s only a matter of time before he has a monster game.
It’s possible it could be this week when the New Orleans Saints take on the Chicago Bears. The Bears are not a good defense and Vegas agrees as the Saints’ 24.75-point implied team total is the second-highest on the slate. This game is also being played in a dome so that gives him and the passing offense another boost. This might be the last time Olave is this cheap. The talent and utilization are simply too good for the salary making him one of the best Week 9 DraftKings plays, especially from a point-per-dollar standpoint.
Chris Olave has been inefficient in recent weeks, but he continues to receive borderline WR1 volume
Olave is currently setting career-highs in:
• Target Share (26.4%)
• Air Yards Share (39.3%)
• Expected Fantasy Points (14.4)
• Route Participation (91%) pic.twitter.com/tHl27wl7Cv— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) November 3, 2023
Demario Douglas (NE) – $4,000 v WAS
Make no mistake, the New England Patriots have looked like one of the worst offenses (and teams) in the NFL this season. It’s been a far cry from what they were not too long ago. JuJu Smith-Schuster has had knee issues all year that have caused him to miss games and now Kendrick Bourne, who had been their most productive wide receiver, just suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season. Rookie Demario Douglas looks to be the biggest beneficiary. Douglas had already been coming on strong lately.
Over the last two weeks, he’s caught nine of his 13 targets for 79 yards on his way to 19.3 DraftKings points. It’s no coincidence that he set career-highs in route participation at 76% and 84% in those two games as well. His role should be cemented now as a full-time player and looks like the most explosive and simply best wide receiver on the Patriots right now. The matchup is also juicy as well as the Washington Commanders have a truly awful secondary and have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to wide receivers so far this season. Douglas should be able to put up a career-best game in this one.
Others to Consider: Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $5,600 @ NE, Noah Brown (HOU) – $3,100 v TB, Adam Thielen (CAR) – $7,500 v IND, Zay Flowers (BAL) – $5,700 v SEA, Tank Dell (HOU) – $5,300 v TB, Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – $3,500 @ LV
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – $5,200 @ ATL
This recommendation would feel much better if Kirk Cousins hadn’t suffered a torn Achilles and is out for the year, but even still, T.J. Hockenson is one of the best and most heavily utilized tight ends in the league. He’s one of only six tight ends with at least 80% route participation. His 22% target share is only 1% behind the league leaders. Hockenson’s 66 targets and 53 receptions are only one behind Travis Kelce, who leads all tight ends in both categories.
The Vikings are also still without Justin Jefferson so that should mean Hockenson remains a clear focal point of this offense. Jaren Hall didn’t look very good in relief of Cousins last week but he should be good enough to make the easy throws to Hockenson. As previously mentioned, this game is played in a dome which is a nice boost for Hockenson and the passing offenses. The Vikings also check in as 2.5-point underdogs so they should be throwing early and often. With plenty of value at other positions, Hockenson looks like one of the best Week 9 DraftKings plays.
Trey McBride (ARI) – $3,700 @ CLE
It was so nice we’ll do it twice. Unfortunately, Trey McBride’s salary jumped big time this week but he’s still underpriced considering the recent utilization. The shift from Zach Ertz to McBride started in Week 6 but with Ertz now on the IR, Week 8 was when the takeover was complete. McBride had an 88% route participation, 39% TPRR, 40% target share, and 41% air yards share. All of those are elite numbers and season-highs for McBride. He ended up catching 10 of his 14 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown on his way to 25.5 DraftKings points.
It’s unlikely he can match that production this week against a tough Cleveland Browns defense, but last week’s matchup was a very tough one as well. The Arizona Cardinals do currently have the lowest implied team total at 14.5 points but they are 8.5-point underdogs. That means they should likely be throwing early and often, much to the benefit of Mcbride.
Trey McBride's 20.7 expected half PPR points based on his usage weren't just a season high for him.
It was the highest of any TE this year.
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 31, 2023
Others to Consider: Logan Thomas (WAS) – $3,500 @ NE, David Njoku (CLE) – $3,800 v ARI, Kyle Pitts (ATL) – $4,100 v MIN
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. I advise filling out the rest of your lineup first and then picking your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Deshaun Watson
- RB – Alvin Kamara
- RB – Bijan Robinson
- WR – Adam Thielen
- WR – Terry McLaurin
- WR – Demario Douglas
- TE – Logan Thomas
- Flex – Josh Jacobs
- DST – New England Patriots
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 9 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 10. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
Main Photo: Jasen Vinlove – USA Today Sports
