There are many pressing concerns in Green Bay this season, but the Packers’ first-half failure is the largest. The Defense has been rather middling. Currently, the Defense is 13th in yards per play allowed (5.1 ), 12th in QB pressures per dropback (24.5%), and 20th in opponent QB Rating (91.8). However, they are currently 25th in DVOA Defense.
The Offense has done no better. Green Bay ranks 22nd in points scored so far. Additionally, they are 23rd in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) at just 5.0. The Packers do rank 12th in Offense DVOA to this point in the season. Still, the competition has included five of the bottom nine DVOA defenses.
The inability of the Green Bay Packers to be ready to play when the game starts is unforgivable.
Packers Unprepared Every Week
How It Started
Just like the internet meme, we look first at how it all started. When doing an analysis, sometimes you have to take away the outliers to find the trend. The Packers started off 1-1 in the 2023 season. They opened with the Chicago Bears. The first week of the season is a weird statistical point since both teams have an entire offseason to prepare for a single game. Additionally, both teams are incorporating new things (new schemes, players, and/or coaches). Next, the Packers faced the Atlanta Falcons. After getting out to a lead and maintaining the momentum of an opening-week win, the Packers fell apart.
These two games stand alone in the Packers season. The long preparation period and then the immediate overreaction to the results of week 1 make them fairly unusual. The remaining games on the schedule set a very clear pattern.
The New Normal
Starting in Week 3, watching the Packers has taken on a weird deja vu feeling. The Packers are completely inept in the first half and then race to make it a game. Week 3 is the only time it worked out. The Packers went down 0-17 and came back to win 18-17. Over the next four games, the Packers were never again able to overcome their anemic first halves. The Packers’ first-half failures have overshadowed any comeback attempt.
Over the last five first halves, Jordan Love gone a total of 41 completions on 69 passes for just 296 yards. This is over 10 quarters of football. Not a single touchdown in these periods, but two interceptions. That is good for a marginally respectable 59.4% completion rate, but a 57.4 QB Rating. As a whole, the Packers have managed just 420 yards in these ten quarters. This includes giving away 65 yards over 15 penalties. Just for context, there was another penalty declined and yet another that was part of offsetting penalties. The Packers have just 9 points over these ten quarters.
Over these ten quarters, the Packers had 28 drives. Four of these were drives that ended the half, including one kneel-down. So, just 24 substantial drives. Of these 24 drives, ten ended in three and outs. Two other drives ended with those interceptions mentioned above. That is half the substantial drives. There was another drive that ended on a turnover on downs (a drive where the Packers did not get a first down). Three drives ended in field goals, though another ended with a missed field goal. One of these three field goals (a full one-third of all first-half scoring in this period) came on a field goal drive of zero yards. Yes, the drive started after an interception put the offense on the opponent’s 16-yard line.
How It’s Going
While there were just nine points scored in the first half, the Packers scored 69 points in the second half. That is 88.5% of their scoring at this time. Jordan Love is forced to open up in the second half. His completion percentage dips to 56.0% in the second half, but in obvious passing situations this should be expected. Still, Love’s QB Rating rises to 70.3 in the second half. He has completed 65 out of 116 passes for 800 yards in the second half. This included five touchdowns and six interceptions.
The team improves overall too. Green Bay goes from 420 yards in the first half to 1,087 yards in the second half. Still, climbing back into games has been impossible as the Packers’ first-half failures have affected ended their games at halftime.
What Could Account For This
The obvious answer is coaching. The Packers are never as prepared as their opponents for the start of the game. 15 penalties in ten quarters show the sloppy play during these starts. Drops have been a major concern as well. Add in several plays where receivers are running the wrong routes and it all looks like a team that is lost. The discipline and knowledge base of a team is what the head coach is there to add. Matt LaFleur has been failing this team in preparing them to start every week.
Imagine a season where the first halves were even just 60% of the second halves. That would result in 41 more points being scored. That would be just over a touchdown added to each game. That is the difference between 4-3 and 2-5 right now. This is not a Championship-contending team, but if LaFleur was able to get this team ready during the week, this could still be a winning team. As it sits, the Packers and LaFleur wait to make their adjustments at halftime and all but guarantee another loss.
Main Photo: [Ron Chenoy] – USA Today Sports
