Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2 SU, 5-2-0 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU, 4-2-0 ATS)
When: Sunday, Oct. 29th, 2023, 1:00 pm (ET)
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Point Spread: JAX -2.5/PIT +2.5
Total: O/U 41.5
Money Line: JAX -152/PIT +128
[metabet_core_odds_board query=”536003″ site_id=”lastwordonsports”]
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers: What You Need to Know Before You Bet
Injury Report
Jacksonville Jaguars: DT Davon Hamilton *Questionable* (Back), CB Gregory Junior *Questionable* (Hamstring), WR Zay Jones *Questionable* (Knee), OL Walker Little *Questionable* (Knee), CB Tyson Campbell *Questionable* (Hamstring), CB Christian Braswell *Out* (Hamstring), WR Parker Washington *Out* (Knee), TE Leonard Taylor *Injury Reserve* (Undisclosed), OT Cooper Hodges *Out* (Knee), LB Ventrell Miller *Injury Reserve* (Achilles)
Pittsburgh Steelers: RB Anthony McFarland Jr. *Questionable* (Knee), TE Pat Freiermuth *Out* (Hamstring), DT Cameron Hayward *Out* (Groin), DT Renell Wren *Injury Reserve* (Achilles), DB Corey Trice *Injury Reserve* (Leg)
Recent Form
Coming into the always hostile Acrisure Stadium, the Jaguars have found a way to play spoiler with a 3-0 record on the road. A big part of this success has been their ability to create turnovers, having six total in their three road games. For an offense that is still finding its groove, giving them extra opportunities to score points will continue to build Trevor Lawrence’s confidence with this young offense.
As for the home team, the Pittsburgh Steelers on paper are happy where they are with a 4-2 record. To the viewer’s eye, this winning record would not be possible without their stellar defensive play as of recent. Holding their last two opponents to 17 and 10 points gives a young and developing Kenny Pickett a chance to win football games.
Air it Out
Despite defense being a big part of both team’s success so far this season, one area that has been a struggle is defending the pass. The Jaguars and Steelers find themselves in the bottom eight of the league (Steelers 25th & Jaguars 31st) in yards given up through the air. If you’re the Jaguars, this is music to your ears as putting the ball in Trevor Lawrence’s hands is often the recipe for success. If you are the Steelers, however, throwing the ball more has often become the backbreaker with a young quarterback under center. In both of their losses this season, the Steelers leaned more on the passing game, which in turn led to Kenny Pickett turning the ball over.
The easy fix to that is to run the ball, right? Against a team that struggles against the run, sure, but the Jaguars are not that team. Ranking fourth in the league, giving up just 80.6 yards per game on the ground, (61.7 YPG in their last three games) the Jaguars are going to shut down the run game early and force the ball into Kenny Pickett’s hands. If the Steelers can find a way to play complimentary football and get production out of the run game, maybe they limit their turnovers and give themselves a chance to stay competitive in this game.
How the Public is Betting the Jaguars vs. Steelers
59% are betting on the Jaguars to cover the spread.
52% are betting on the total to go over 41.5.
What’s the Pick?
Coming into Pittsburgh as the road favorite, the Jaguars will once again lean heavily on their defense to win the turnover margin and give the offense the needed extra opportunities against the always tough and talented defense of the Steelers. As we know, the Steelers are known for creating some chaos on the defensive side of the ball as well, but with Kenny Pickett under center, these turnovers won’t always equate to points. Against a scary Pittsburgh pass rush, look for the Jaguars to get the ball out quickly to their playmakers and cash in on the turnovers their defense creates against a young and inexperienced quarterback. Take the Jaguars to cover the spread at -2.5.
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Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez – USA Today Sports
