Historically, the New England Patriots have found it challenging to secure a win in Miami, holding a 17-41 record as the away team in the matchup against the Dolphins. However, this week presents a unique narrative. Coming off a surprising victory against the Buffalo Bills, they now have a divisional record of 2-1. The Patriots only divisional loss was to the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. The defense displayed an impressive performance last week and hopes to build off it. Meanwhile, Mac Jones looked sharper than ever, marking his best performance so far this season.
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On the other side, the Dolphins are looking to bounce back following their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Their offense struggled in the outing, putting up just one touchdown. After their loss to the Bills earlier in the season, the Dolphins responded with a great game against a mediocre offense in the New York Giants. They’re hoping to have the same response here, against the Patriots.
Seven Keys to the Patriots Upsetting Dolphins As Near Ten Point Underdog
Injury Updates
It seems as though both teams have caught the injury bug pretty early here in the 2023 season. The Patriots injury report released on Friday listed six offensive and defensive linemen as “Questionable” or “Out,” so there’s sure to be players battling through pain, as well as some backups stepping up to fill the void. With edge rusher Keion White returning to practice on Thursday, there’s growing optimism that he’ll be suiting up on Sunday; he could provide a much-needed spark for the New England pass rush.
There was a brief moment of hope for the Patriots fans and their secondary when Tyreek Hill missed practice on Wednesday with what was reported as a hip injury, creating speculation about his availability. However, he returned on Thursday, confirming his readiness for the game. The Dolphins’ secondary may lack a key player with Jevon Holland potentially out, but they anticipate a significant boost with the return of Jalen Ramsey.
Mac Jones’ Mastery in Short Game Continues
Last week saw Mac Jones exhibiting an impressive mastery over the short game. The scheme Bill O’Brien had for the Bills defense was working; giving Mac Jones a 72.7% expected completion percentage, (according to NextGen Stats) which stood as the second-highest of the week he outperformed expectations with an impressive 83.3%. While it might be a tall order expecting a repeat performance of such high efficiency, being accurate against the Dolphins is imperative to a Patriots win. Although a tad more aggression on early downs wouldn’t hurt, it’s crucial that Jones doesn’t feel the need to force plays.
O-Line Steps Up Amidst Shifting Sands
The offensive line had a moment under the sun last week with rookie Sidy Sow making a notable impact and Mike Onwenu showcasing his versatility by transitioning from guard to tackle seamlessly. Their performance was a notch above expectations, and that’s something they’re going to need to be again in order to match strides with Miami’s offense. The challenge remains in carving out a more assertive push in the run game. Bill O’Brien has a real challenge in front of him to scheme up a plan that catalyzes this aspect of the game. The 65 yards on 20 carries shared between Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott last week left room for more. A bolstered run game would be the key to unlocking more in the passing game.
Navigating the Receiver Rotation Conundrum
The Patriots’ receiver room witnessed a new addition with former first-round pick Jalen Reagor signing onto the 53-man roster, making it a crowded house with seven wide receivers. The collective performance from this group has been underwhelming, sparking quite a bit of shuffling. In a candid remark in his press conference Friday morning, head coach Bill Belichick noted, “We have a lot of competition at that position… Guys who perform the best play the most. The guys that don’t, have to perform better.” This sentiment echoes the competition driving excellence; a staple of the “Patriot way”.
The spotlight also hovers over Patriots 2022 second-round pick, Tyquan Thorton. Despite the struggle to make a significant mark on the field this year, Thorton was seen taking reps with special teams during practice this week. It’s an indication of the continuous attempt to harness the speedster’s potential amidst a receiving corps that’s been less than stellar.
#Patriots HC Bill Belichick when asked about WR Kayshon Boutte being a constant inactive:
“We have a lot of competition at that position… Guys who perform the best play the most. The guys that don't, have to perform better." pic.twitter.com/8DTBPqJOwv
— Carlos (@LosTalksPats) October 27, 2023
A Rekindled Spark in the Secondary with JC Jackson
Since JC Jackson’s return to New England, the secondary has visibly upped its game. Though the sample size might be small, Jackson’s stats speak volumes – 10 completions on 21 targets for a completion rate of 47.6% and a stingy 4.6 yards per target. These numbers are not just impressive on paper but have translated into a noticeable spark for the defense. The ripple effect of his play has invigorated the entire secondary, setting a tone that resonates with a ‘no easy yards’ mantra. They have their work cut out for them with one of if not the best receiving corps in all of football.
The Blossoming Leadership of Jabrill Peppers
In his second season with the Patriots, Jabrill Peppers has embraced a leadership role that extends beyond his exemplary performance on the field. He’s allowing a low 5.7 yards per target and forcing opposing quarterbacks to a dismal 75.6 rating when targeted. Peppers has been nothing short of exceptional for this Patriots defense this year. His leadership was on full display post-game last week, where he gave a heartfelt speech to the locker room. The essence of his message carried through to his press conference, where he appeared in full uniform and pads, embodying the warrior spirit.
David Andrews, in a conversation with NESN, lauded Peppers’ leadership saying, “People respect, as a player, they respect when you go out there and do what you’re supposed to do. Play hard. And you’re accountable, you earn people’s trust by your actions on the field…He brings an element to our football team. And he’s a veteran guy, he’s been around. He’s done it.” (NESN)
Linebackers’ Paramount Role Against McDaniels’ Running Scheme
The Dolphins have been near-historic with their run game, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt as a team. Even with rookie sensation De’Von Achane sidelined on IR, the potential return of Raheem Mostert, who ended the week practicing with limited participation, could pose a challenge. The architect behind the Dolphins’ run game, head coach Mike McDaniels, is known for his intricate run schemes. It’s a chess match where the linebackers will need to step up, counter the intricacies, and respond without having to pull resources from the secondary.
Get Confidence Early
Gaining a lead early in the game is a universally acknowledged booster for quarterbacks, but for Mac Jones, it’s especially pivotal. His short game is well-recognized, yet the absence of a formidable deep threat could pose challenges trying to come back quickly. This underscores the importance of a strong start for the Patriots in this game against the Dolphins.
Even if they do find themselves facing a deficit, the Patriots must remain steadfast with their game plan. It’s much more effective than overhauling their approach and trying to come back as quickly as they can. This just ramps up the pressure on Mac Jones and the already beat-up offensive line. A scenario where Jones finds himself compelled to force the ball usually ends up spiraling into a series of bad decisions, veering the game further off course.
It’s no secret that these two franchises are at completely different places right now. Both this season and those in the near future are looking vastly different for each. However, with the Patriots energized by their recent upset win over Buffalo and the Dolphins yearning for a resurgence post their stumble against the Eagles; the overarching narrative is one of redemption and assertion. The Patriots seeking to turn around a decades-long trend in Miami and save their season. While the Dolphins aim to take a firm hold on the entire division.
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