Caleb Williams is one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory. Ever since he stepped on the field for Oklahoma in 2021, it has been highlight after highlight. One transfer and a Heisman trophy later, Williams is likely down to his last handful of college games before beginning the next chapter of his football career. Williams has been the projected number-one overall pick for nearly two years, but is it a consensus?
Caleb Williams May Not Be the Sure-Fire Number One Pick
Generational?
The term “generational” gets thrown around far too often now and has started to lose its meaning. Caleb Williams is a great prospect. He would be the number-one overall pick in most drafts, but generational is a strong term. He has tremendous physical ability, which makes him a fantastic prospect. Williams has the requisite mobility and arm strength that the NFL has been looking for in the draft as of late.
What makes him different, however, is his creativity. Caleb Williams has an uncanny ability to change arm angles and still generate incredible zip on the ball. When he is moving in the pocket, it’s almost as if he is setting up his blocks like a runner while waiting for his targets to come open.
Pump the Breaks
Because of his Heisman campaign and stellar production, the hype surrounding Williams is as large as any prospect in recent memory. When trying to find NFL comparisons, the name Patrick Mahomes has been thrown around.
Not so fast.
A more apt comparison would be Kyler Murray, but not nearly as short. Not only do Williams’ strengths align with Murray’s, but his weaknesses do too. As the quality of play for USC has dipped, so has the play of Caleb Williams. Williams’ biggest red flag is his play in structure. He’s a phenomenal creator, but there are some things on his tape that raise some concerns about translation to the NFL.
Most quarterbacks in the NFL are getting the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds. Williams is at over 3.2 seconds. He is incredibly liable to be just an absolute sack machine in the NFL. Williams must learn how to get rid of the ball faster at the next level. Also, Williams relies far too much on off-script play. Being able to create is pivotal, but there are far more instances in the NFL where he will be asked to play within the structure of the offense instead of doing it himself. The monumental failure that was Zach Wilson and the New York Jets could leave some teams weary of a guy who does far too much “backyard football”.
Per PFF, Caleb Williams ranks 102nd (!!) in passing grade vs. pressure and 4th in the same stat when not pressured.
Williams (not the OL) has also been charged with 40% of the pressures allowed, the highest of any QB in the FBS by a wide margin.
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 24, 2023
A Challenger Approaches
North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye has been firmly entrenched as the number two quarterback in this class. Maye, similar to Williams, has a lot of the things that NFL evaluators are looking for in a modern quarterback. He has mobility, accuracy, and arm strength in spades. Maye makes jaw-dropping throws every single game and has also made countless plays with his legs. He plays much better in structure than Williams. Ever since Devontez Walker returned from ineligibility, Maye has been able to truly show off his vertical passing ability.
the Drake Maye to Tez Walker connection continues to thrive pic.twitter.com/l9MMmaHyfr
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 21, 2023
Conclusion
There are certainly some reasons to be concerned about Caleb Williams’ NFL outlook, just like every other prospect in the history of the sport. This is not a “Caleb Williams is a bust” piece. This is simply an honest assessment of a prospect and a question to pose.
Will NFL teams value Drake Maye over him? The answer is yes. How many? That remains to be seen. Caleb Williams will almost certainly be the number-one overall pick. However, if he isn’t, it is because of questions about how he will play in structure.
Main Image: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
