Six weeks is exactly one-third of the way through the full 18-week NFL season. After six games, most teams have provided enough data and film with which to form educated opinions. The 3-3 Washington Commanders, however, still remain a bit of an enigma. They fought to the wire against the elite Eagles but followed that game with a letdown against the winless Bears. Some players have met or exceeded expectations, and some have taken a step back. Two Commanders wide receivers, specifically, are on completely different trajectories after the first third of the season.
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Opposite Trajectories for Two Commanders Receivers
Curtis Samuel
Curtis Samuel came to Washington as one of its marquee free-agent acquisitions of the 2021 offseason. He promptly missed almost the entire season with an injury, catching only six passes for 27 yards total in five games. Last season, Samuel returned to form and played in all 17 games, finishing with 64 receptions for 656 yards and four touchdowns. He demonstrated the type of game-breaking quickness and YAC ability that fans had come to expect during his four-year tenure as a Carolina Panther.
Entering the 2023 season, though, Samuel was expected to take a slight backseat to the up-and-coming duo of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. He’s done the exact opposite. Relegated to the slot, Samuel has been a mismatch nightmare for linebackers, safeties, and nickel corners. With 27 catches, 285 yards, and two touchdowns through six games, Samuel is currently on pace to exceed his career highs in every raw statistical category in a contract year this season.
Jahan Dotson
Speaking of Jahan Dotson, the promising former 1st-round pick now finds himself in the midst of a massive sophomore slump. As mentioned two weeks ago, Dotson is off to a brutal start to the season and it has only gotten worse over the last two games. In week 6 against the Falcons, he drew only one target and zero receptions for zero yards. He ran the second-most routes on the team, behind only Terry McLaurin, but was still unable to produce.
Dotson has generated a staggeringly low Yards Per Route Run Rate, a sticky and predictive statistic for future success. He averages 0.62 yards per route run, the fifth-worst mark in the league. On the exact same amount of targets as Curtis Samuel has received this season, 31, Dotson has caught 10 fewer balls for 145 fewer yards than Samuel has. Dotson’s incredible touchdown rate last season was always unsustainable and likely to regress, but no one anticipated the rest of his game to regress with it. Ron Rivera doesn’t seem too worried about Dotson, though.
Moving Forward
The Commanders face the struggling New York Giants next in Week 7. Quarterback Daniel Jones missed Week 6 and his status is still up in the air for the Commanders game. Without him, Tyrod Taylor performed admirably and nearly pulled off an upset against the Bills. Washington cannot afford to underestimate anyone.
New York’s pass defense offers an opportunity for Curtis Samuel to continue his torrid pace, and for Jahan Dotson to turn his season around. The Giants have allowed 1,302 passing yards this season, 13th-most in the NFL. Even more enticing, they have given up 773 yards after catch, fifth-most in the league. Despite their opposite trajectories, both of these two Commanders receivers have the potential to explode in Week 7.
Main Photo: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
