Music City Musings – Week 5: Indianapolis Colts
The Tennessee Titans travel to the land of Pat McAfee to take on their eternal AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts. Both teams had markedly different Week 4 outcomes as the Colts lost in a heartbreaker to the Rams in overtime while the Titans won in dominant fashion against the Bengals. Which of these teams will win on Sunday and claim an early lead in the topsy-turvy AFC South? Can Mike Vrabel reverse his disconcerting trend against rookie quarterbacks? Will the Colts finally end the streak of Titans victories in the series?
Colts Offense vs. Titans Defense
The Colts will present a vastly different challenge for the Titans’ defense compared to last week with a more athletic quarterback at the controls. Rookie signal-caller Anthony Richardson is a freak athlete with all the physical traits you could ask for. He will be a load for Tennessee to cover in both the run and pass game. There is also the looming specter of the Jonathan Taylor saga leading to his return as well.
OL vs. DL Matchups to Watch
Monitoring the practice reports this week will be interesting as the Colts are battling injuries on the line. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann and center Ryan Kelly remain in concussion protocol as of Wednesday. If Raimann can’t go, Blake Freeland will earn his second consecutive start. It appears that Kelly is on track to return pending Thursday’s practice. If he can’t go on Sunday, Wesley French will replace him. Losing Raimann would be a massive blow to the Colts’ line as he’s been graded as one of the best tackles in the game by all metrics. PFF has graded him as the 11th-best tackle with an overall grade of 78.3 while Kelly is ranked as the top center with an 82.8. The other three are also formidable, each ranking way above average in their positions.
Right tackle Braden Smith is one of the more underrated tackles in the game today. Left guard Quenton Nelson is still Quenton Nelson. Right guard Will Fries is very good as well. However, Freeland has been graded as one of the worst tackles in the game with an overall score of 44.6 with a pass block grade of 19.6. It’s imperative that Raimann clears the protocol for Indy.
If everyone is healthy, the Titans’ defensive front will have their hands full against one of the better offensive lines they will face this season. The interior battle between Kelly, Nelson, and Fries against Simmons and Tart will be fascinating. Denico Autry and Arden Key versus Raimann are equally interesting to watch. Strength-on-strength matchups across the board.
Prediction
With the caveat of full health on both sides factored in, both teams will likely battle to a standstill. Autry seems to perform well against his former team. Harold Landry must pick up his play, which is likely the decisive factor. If Raimann nor Kelly cannot go, then the advantage lies with the road team.
Skill-on-Skill Matchups to Watch
Indianapolis has activated star running back Jonathan Taylor off the injured list, which means he’s eligible to participate at any point within five weeks. While it isn’t for certain that he plays, he may do. The calculus changes for everyone if he does indeed play. Anthony Richardson is a significant threat with his legs and has shown what he’s capable of repeatedly against unsuspecting defenses. He’s a big bruising runner like Cam Newton with the athleticism to boot.
While the Colts’ receivers aren’t as hyped as opponents prior, they still can pose some danger to the Titans’ much-beleaguered secondary. Rookie Josh Downs has emerged as a viable threat for Richardson out of the slot. He’s the second leading receiver behind young veteran Michael Pittman, Jr. Alec Pierce can be a choice weapon as well if taken lightly. The tight end room is certainly hampered with Jelani Woods being injured and Mo Alie-Cox battling an injury as well. That leaves Kylen Granson to take on the majority of the workload.
If the Titans were smart, they would challenge Pittman with Sean Murphy-Bunting while isolating the weaker Kristian Fulton against Pierce. Roger McCreary would likely cover Downs as a result. Amani Hooker would help in run support and help over the top against Pittman in this scenario.
Prediction
Seeing how the Titans react to Taylor returning to action on Sunday will be interesting. They have likely planned for such a scenario. How will they match up against the receivers? The secondary was much improved against a vastly superior receiver room last week, how will they fare against a “lesser” room?
Titans Offense vs. Colts Defense
Tennessee showed signs of life last week against the Bengals. Can they show up again this week against a similarly talented Colts defense?
OL vs. DL Matchups to Watch
The Titans got a boost over the weekend with the lifting of the suspension of right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere after four games. This is interesting given that his replacement, Chris Hubbard, has been one of their best linemen. What’s even more interesting is that NPF was seen practicing on the left side during the week. Left tackle Andre Dillard has been a sordid tale of inconsistency and consternation among Titans fans. He’s been soundly beaten against every top pass rusher he’s faced to date. Another significant return for the line has been rookie Peter Skoronski after he missed the past two games due to appendicitis. He looks to be on track to return to action this week after two consecutive practices.
It’s looking likely that the opening-day five is returning to full health this week while the Colts are facing injury dilemmas. While it is likely that the much-maligned Dillard maintains his spot, a shot was fired across his bow with NPF practicing at left tackle. A possible theory is that he could replace the current starter after the bye week. Hubbard’s solid start gives the staff a lot of intriguing options, that’s for sure.
Indianapolis is in a pickle with EDGE Tyquan Lewis and star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner either missing practices (Buckner) or limited (Lewis). Buckner is the bigger concern as he’s missed consecutive practices with an achy back issue. Those are finicky and hard to predict so it will be imperative that he plays. What’s more concerning is that of Kwity Paye, who’s still in concussion protocol as of Thursday. The Colts’ depth on the defensive line will be tested just like their offensive counterparts.
Prediction
The left-side matchup between Samson Ebukam and Dillard will be the decisive battle to watch. Grover Stewart vs. Skoronski / Dillon Radunz will be another flashpoint as well. Ebukam is one of the higher-graded EDGE rushers by PFF, scoring an overall grade of 77.3. If Buckner cannot go, Eric Johnson II or Taven Bryan will be his replacement. If Paye can’t clear the protocol, the Colts likely move Dayo Odeyingbo to the left side to offset his loss and battle Hubbard. Health between both sides of the line for each team will be the key factor.
Skill-on Skill Matchups to Watch
Another test against a solid secondary awaits the Titans’ receiver room that will likely miss Treylon Burks again due to injury. DeAndre Hopkins will once again dominate the target share. Nick Westbrook-Ihkine and Chris Moore will play prominent roles once more. Rookie receiver Colton Dowell made his debut last week but registered no statistics. Another rookie, tight end Josh Whyle had a promising game, scoring a touchdown and making key blocks along the way. King Henry returned to being The King after a bottle job a couple of weeks ago against the Browns. Rookie runner Tyjae Spears continues to be a revelation in both the run and pass sets.
If there is a weakness to be exploited in the Colts’ defense, it’s in the linebacker corps as starter Shaquille Leonard is battling injury and age again. He missed both practices this week and is likely a game-time decision with a groin injury. E.J. Speed has been slightly above average but has had some bouts of inconsistency. Zaire Franklin is playing pretty decently. The secondary has been good with rookie JuJu Brents showing signs of immense potential with his frame and athleticism. Veterans Kenny Moore II and Jaylon Jones have been steady. Julian Blackmon has been average to above average in all facets. The weak point has been Rodney Thomas II so there could be a break for the Titans to take advantage.
Prediction
OC Tim Kelly will have to take advantage of a potentially compromised front seven by hammering the King and the play-action game. Tight end Chig Okonkwo and RB Spears will be the decisive factors against a weakened linebacker room. Kelly has a terrific play design but the limited arsenal of receivers will be the downfall of Tennessee against a talent-laden secondary.
Weather Report
Sunday’s weather for Indianapolis is projected to be a high temperature of 58 degrees with a seven percent chance of rain, which is typical for this time of year. It’s predicted to be partly cloudy throughout the day. The humidity is predicted to be at 57%. Winds are projected to blow in an Eastern direction at 13 miles per hour. The relatively cloudy day could help both teams to be shielded from the sun when facing the window panes that Lucas Oil Stadium is known for. Like most indoor facilities, the building is temperature-controlled and gets rowdy when the home team is in season.
Odds and Ends
Indianapolis leads the all-time series with a record of 35-22. Mike Vrabel has a 6-4 record against the Colts thus far into his tenure, including a five-game winning streak. Tennessee has won six of the last seven head-to-head matchups. In that time frame, Tennessee has led the scoreline by a margin of 195 to 151. First-year head coach Shane Steichen 1-1 against the Titans as an assistant coach. He has a 7-2 record against the AFC South as it stands since the 2019 season.
Uniform
The Titans are 3-2 against the Colts in the all-white setup in the new uniform era, which includes a three-game winning streak. Indianapolis will wear their traditional home blue tops and white bottoms. There’s a relatively new wrinkle in this week’s uniforms as they will feature light blue socks instead of the usual white socks.
Data courtesy of Titans Uni Tracker
Titans
🚨Wardrobe check:🚨 The #Titans will be decked out in white jerseys, white britches and light blue socks in Sunday’s game vs the @Colts. 👖 #BritchesReport pic.twitter.com/7awR8LcAHe
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) October 4, 2023
Colts
Titans week. pic.twitter.com/zU28r27LkJ
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 4, 2023
Betting
The Titans are 3-1 against the spread while the Colts are 2-2. Indianapolis has gone OVER in three of its four contests while Tennessee has gone UNDER in the same time so nothing can be gleaned there. In the previous ten times since Vrabel took over the Titans, the average margin of victory has been 23.9 to 22.4 in Tennessee’s favor.
Tennessee is favored by 1.5 points on the road with a -122 money line, which marks the first time they are the favorites this season. The Colts are +2.5 dogs with a money line of +116 and have been underdogs in every game. They haven’t been remotely close to covering against the spread yet.
The Over / Under is listed at 43 even as of press time. It’s a slightly risky proposition for bettors given the Titans are inconsistent offensively and the Colts are somewhat in that category as well. Shane Steichen’s team has been the epitome of average as they have scored 24.3 points while giving up 24.8 per game on average. It should be entertaining to track at least.
All the elements are there for the bets to hit in this game but the trend of Tennessee going under and Indy going over might be a risk worth taking. If the average margin of victory trend holds, bettors should be safe against the house.
Prediction
Tennessee 17
INDIANAPOLIS 26
Main Photo: [Denny Simmons/The Tennessean] – USA Today Sports
