We are two weeks into the NFL season and the fantasy football landscape continues to shift on a dime. This happens thanks to every year some players surprising in specific fantasy football statistics. That is why it is important to keep yourself in the know on shifts in key stats that correlate to fantasy point production.
I pick one surprising player for each position and look at a key fantasy point-producing category they are standing out in and what you should do with it.
Let’s dive into these players and surprise fantasy football statistics!
The 4 Biggest Fantasy Football Surprise Statistics Heading Into Week 3
Aaron Rodgers Who?
Don’t look now, but Jordan Love is tied with Kirk Cousins for the most passing touchdowns among quarterbacks. I know what you are thinking, it is only Week 2, relax. Love has six passing touchdowns so far on the season, which is a 17-game pace of 51 touchdowns. This pace is unlikely to be sustained but is a welcomed surprise for Love managers who waited years for him to step into the spotlight from behind Aaron Rodgers.
Jordan Love currently has more passing yards (396) than Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow.
More passing TD’s (6) than Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
A higher QBR (75.5) than Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Trevor Lawrence.
And a higher passer rating (118.8) than every QB in the… pic.twitter.com/XhHjfEIwSz
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 21, 2023
Passing touchdowns have the strongest statistical correlation to quarterback fantasy football points with an 88% correlation. So it should come as no surprise that Cousins and Love, the two leaders in touchdown passes, are also the top two quarterbacks in fantasy football. What may be worrisome for Love? The second strongest correlating stat for quarterback fantasy points is passing yards. This stat he ranks 11th lowest among quarterbacks with 25-plus pass attempts at 198 passing yards per game.
If the passing touchdowns come down, as it likely will, Love will have to find a way to move the ball down the field better to sustain top-12 quarterback status. Managers should exercise cautious optimism with Love.
Brian Robinson the Bellcow
Brian Robinson made a miraculous comeback last season after being shot in the leg. The play may have been inconsistent, but 2023 is a new year. He is currently the RB3 in PPR leagues, despite playing 57% of offensive snaps. He has 79% of the Washington Commanders rushing attempts, second to only Zach Moss of the Indianapolis Colts.
His 36 total rush attempts on the season ranks sixth among running backs. However, his 74 total snaps only ranks 17th among running backs. Rushing attempts is a top ten stat in correlation to fantasy points for running backs. While we may be seeing a move away from the traditional bell cow running back with 20+ carries a game. Carries are still important to the fantasy value of a running back.
Robinson and Antonio Gibson are sharing the backfield snaps at around a 60/40 clip. However, Robinson isn’t just getting carries, he is seeing more usage in the passing game where he wasn’t last season. He has run 33 total routes and is seeing a 12% targets per route run. This is all great news for Robinson managers. If his snap count can rise then he will be a lock in the top-12 fantasy running back discussion.
Nico Collins – Houston Texans WR1?
While all eyes are on Puka Nacua with the Los Angeles Rams, there is another young playmaker turning heads on an overlooked team. Nico Collins is the WR6 in PPR right now, and the advanced stats suggest this isn’t a fluke. The fourth highest correlating stat to fantasy points for wide receivers is total air yards. Collins currently ranks No.4 in this category with 287 air yards, behind only: Tyreek Hill, Kendrick Bourne, and Justin Jefferson.
Pair this big play ability with the sixth-most targets among wide receivers with 20. There is reason to believe, given the limited wide receiver competition, that Nico Collins can sustain this. The top-24 upside exists for managers who were patient enough. Plus, Collins’ connection with C.J. Stroud is undeniable.
Hunter Henry the Top 3 Tight End
Remember the Hunter Henry of 2019? The TE9 who was averaging over 12 points per game? Well remember no longer and take a look at 2023 Henry, currently the TE2 and averaging over 16 points per game.’
We've got a ways to go before we can start to feel good about what we saw in Week 1, but goodness. Hunter Henry might actually be #back. pic.twitter.com/9th5Ap41Ay
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) September 16, 2023
He is top five across the board in most key tight end opportunity and fantasy football point correlating statistics. This includes being top three in the three most important categories. His 108 receiving yards are No.2 among tight ends. His 11 receptions are No.3 among tight ends. Lastly, his 13 targets are No.3 among tight ends.
The New England Patriots offense ranks No.29 in the NFL for yards per pass attempt. So this offense will be predicated on less deep plays and more short passes. Henry should remain a focal point of this offense all season, putting him squarely in the conversation for a potential top-five tight end finish in fantasy. In an always volatile tight end landscape, Henry is a safe bet.
There are players who surprise every year in fantasy football statistics. It is important to understand the key fantasy football point-producing metrics at each position and making sure you are finding the players and understanding what to do with them.
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Main Photo: Paul Rutherford – USA Today Sports
