NFL trades constitute a significant part of the NFL, with draft day trades for quarterbacks being some of the most exciting. There have been countless instances of this occurring in the NFL, but none are as fascinating as the San Fransisco 49ers trading up with the Miami Dolphins to select Trey Lance 3rd overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. And now that Lance has been traded to the Dallas Cowboys for a 4th round pick, let’s look back at the original Lance trade. With the benefit of hindsight, many will point at this trade and call it one of the worst draft trades in recent memory. While that may not be too far from the truth, it’s important to dive deeper into this trade to see the NFL world when the trade occurred, why it happened, and how this trade may have led to two teams becoming playoff contenders.
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How the Trey Lance Trade Made the Miami Dolphins Contenders
What Led to the Dolphins Side of the Trade
The events of this trade began in 2019. The Dolphins had just come off of the disastrous tenure of Adam Gase and were looking to rebuild. As such, they traded away tackle Laremy Tunsil and other pieces for three early-round picks from the Houston Texans. The Texans floundered all of 2020 and ended up gifting the Dolphins the 3rd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. This draft was headlined with five intriguing quarterback prospects. The Dolphins, on the other hand, were on the upswing at the time and just drafted their hopeful franchise quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, in 2020. So, knowing how quarterback-desperate teams were, the Dolphins looked to trade down.
The Trey Lance Trade
This is where the second party of this trade enters. The San Fransisco 49ers, fresh off a 2019 Super Bowl appearance, completely collapsed the next year, posting a 6-10 record. This gave up the 12th pick in the draft with the intention of finding their franchise quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo, their starter at the time, struggled with injuries and was uninspiring when healthy. He was serviceable, but if the 49ers wanted to succeed in the NFL, they had to have a top-flight quarterback.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson were the consensus top two picks, so whoever had the third pick would have the choice between the next three quarterbacks. These were Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Alabama’s Mac Jones, and, of course, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. All three had upside, but Lance pulled ahead as the one with the highest ceiling, but perhaps the lowest floor.
With Garoppolo still in San Fran, it seemed to be a perfect landing spot for him. The 49ers shelled out three first-round picks, including their 12th pick, in a trade for the 3rd overall pick and the rights to draft Trey Lance. The Dolphins, for their part, didn’t sit idly by with their new pick, packaging it with their first-round pick in 2022 to trade back up with the Philadelphia Eagles to the 6th overall pick. They used that selection to draft Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle.
Jaylen Waddle is FAAAAASSST pic.twitter.com/DDLWMFSqOq
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 10, 2023
The Construction of a Contender
At the time, NFL critics hailed the trade as a heavy work in progress, as Lance was a huge project, and the Dolphins still needed to cash in the traded draft picks. The 2021 season was a premonition of the future, as Lance seldom played and Waddle set the rookie receptions record with 104. And when also taking the 2022 season into consideration, fans would consider this trade straight up a disaster. Waddle has cemented himself as one of the best WR2s in the NFL, while Lance was traded for pennies on the dollar to Dallas. This alone should be enough to make 49ers fans cringe. But it gets so much worse.
Thanks to Waddle’s production in year 1, the Dolphins were at a point where they believed that they could contend. So, with the 49ers’ 2022 pick along with some others, the Fins snagged Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite Miami’s quarterbacks shifting nearly every week due to injuries, Hil enjoyed his most productive season in the NFL. Hill racked up 119 receptions and 1,710 receiving yards, both good for 2nd in the NFL. Also, for anyone wondering, Waddle ended 2022 7th in receiving yards and 1st in yards per reception with 18.1.
Miami traded their final first-round pick from the Trey Lance trade to the Broncos for Pro Bowler Bradley Chubb. Chubb, along with fellow edge rusher and rising star Jaelon Phillips, seem like they will be one of the most fearsome 1-2 punches in the NFL this season. Suffice to say, the Trey Lance trade has catapulted the eternally mediocre Miami Dolphins into Super Bowl hopefuls. As for the 49ers? Well, they haven’t done too bad for themselves.
Silver (or Gold) Linings
Obviously, a lot of information about the trade has painted a very gloomy picture for the San Fransisco 49ers. However, since this trade, the 9ers have been one of the best teams in football, going 23-11 over 2 seasons. Now, is this more in spite of the Trey Lance trade rather than because of him. Fans probably wish they selected All-Pros Ja’Marr Chase or Micah Parsons, or even the aforementioned Waddle.
But San Fran is still set up for success and they even have a quarterback that they seem to want to build around in Brock Purdy. Regardless, the trade-up for Lance is perhaps the worst draft day trade since the Herschel Walker or Ricky Williams trade, but this is the nature of the game. Despite how much analytics and scouting teams can do, the NFL Draft will always be a crapshoot, especially with quarterbacks and trades.
Taking a chance on a quarterback like Trey Lance is admirable, but most just don’t pan out. Lance is just one of many quarterback busts selected high in the draft, and one could only hope that he turns his career around. The Dolphins, 49ers, and Trey Lance himself all have opportunities to make some noise in their own rights. Miami is looking for a healthy season where they can contend with the AFC’s elite. The 49ers are looking to make it back to the Super Bowl after getting extremely close last season. And, of course, Trey Lance is looking for a fresh start in Dallas backing up Dak Prescott. Perhaps in a couple of years, 49ers fans will lament trading away Lance. We’ve seen quarterbacks like Jim Plunkett, Rich Gannon, and Geno Smith revive their play late in their careers. That’s the beauty of the NFL: anything can happen.
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Main Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea – USA Today Sports
