The 2023 NFL Draft didn’t have a single wide receiver selected until pick #20. The floodgates opened when Seattle took Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as he was the first of four consecutive receivers drafted. The teams that passed on Smith-Njigba will regret their decision sooner rather than later.
Ohio State University has pumped out talented wide receivers at an unbelievable rate. Former Buckeyes like Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, and Michael Thomas have been very successful in the NFL. Based on his profile as a prospect, Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be even better than those players.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is A Star in the Making
Thanks to a nagging hamstring injury throughout his junior year, Smith-Njigba played just one full season in college. But his talent is undeniable when he’s on the field.
As a sophomore, Smith-Njigba tallied 95 receptions for over 1,600 yards and nine touchdowns. He led the Buckeyes in receiving yards and receptions at 19 years old. It’s worth noting that this was with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr. on his team.
Don’t just take my word for it, though. Wilson, the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, publicly stated that he believes Smith-Njigba is a better player than he is.
While the numbers speak for themselves, the tape is just as impressive. Wide receiver guru Matt Harmon is well known for evaluating talent at this position. He tracks the success rate of every route a receiver runs against various types of coverage. According to Harmon’s data, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver of the 2023 draft class across the board. His success rate against zone and press coverage is the best in the class. Smith-Njigba’s success rate against man coverage (75%) was second-best behind Josh Downs (75.2%).
Again, these numbers are based on what Smith-Njigba did at 19 in a highly competitive conference.
What’s Next for JSN?
Despite an impressive profile, he wasn’t drafted as highly as top receivers in previous drafts. Some question his effectiveness on the perimeter and as a downfield threat. These aren’t entirely baseless claims. Smith-Njigba frequently lined up in the slot in college and doesn’t possess elite straight-line speed.
Being a “slower” slot receiver shouldn’t matter for fantasy football. Players like CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp, and Amon-Ra St. Brown have produced at high levels while living in the slot. What truly matters is Smith-Njigba’s route-running ability and reliable hands. That makes him a trustworthy option for quarterbacks and offensive coordinators at the next level.
Smith-Njigba showed he can earn targets at a high rate even when surrounded by other talented receivers. His 22.7% target share was the highest by any Ohio State player on their 2021 roster. Based on his landing spot, he has to continue doing this in the NFL. The rookie finds himself in a crowded receiver room with Seattle but should have no problem getting playing time. Both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf play on the perimeter and are able to stretch defenses out. Playing in the slot could be advantageous for Smith-Njigba as he’ll have plenty of room to operate.
Additionally, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a favorable long-term outlook. Lockett has shown no signs of slowing down, but he turns 31 this month and can’t be counted on forever. It’ll be Metcalf and Smith-Njigba running the show for years to come. It shouldn’t surprise anyone when the latter takes over as Seattle’s top wide receiver.
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Main Photo: Stephen Bisig – USA Today Sports
